Sunday, January 20, 2013

If This Next Week Is Not Winter Then I Don't Know What Is

Good morning. There is a lot to talk about in terms of the weather for the next week in particular, but the theme will stay constant for the next month.  I will break this post into three segments- Temperatures over the next week, snow prospects for the next week, and finally some detail on the long term outlook.

So starting with temperatures: (click to make bigger)

What this graphic shows is what the high temperatures will be on Tuesday at 1 pm. Most of NJ will range from 20-25 degrees which is bitterly cold compared to what we are used to this winter. At night temps will drop into the teens. In fact it is probable that we will not see temperatures go above freezing all week! For North Jersey there is a chance highs on Thursday will not even break 20. 

Hard to give exact details on temps two weeks out, but data suggests that it will be more of the same. I think this graphic sums it up best.

This shows how much below average temps will be for the week which translates to 5-8 degrees below normal for our region. 

So we finally got the cold air so where is the snow? We have three shots at snow over the next 10 days. The first shot will be on  Monday night and tuesday and generally should be light. Here is a projected radar simulation for Monday night.

As you can see snow showers will overspread the area as part of a clipper system coming in from Canada. Do not expect much in terms of accumulation, maybe a dusting to max of 2 in in some spots that get into an intense band.

Later in the week on Friday a moderate snow event looks possible for much of the region. There is a battle between if it is a NYC to Phili snow event or if the storm is warmer leaving the big cities out of the equation. At this point I have decent confidence that interior NJ will see snow from this ranging from 3-5 inches and near the cities will be the normal battleground. I am going to follow this closely and update as the week goes on. One of the more optimistic models the GFS shows the snowcover by Saturday like this....

This model is colder than some other which keeps Phili and NYC in the snow. I think this is too optimistic and the orange 4-6 inch line will be shifted a little north and west. Time will tell.

So lastly, what does the long term look like. I expect the cold temperatures to last through much of February varying in intensity. There is evidence that a large storm will effect the eastern part of the country after this week, so that will be worth watching. I am holding my ground on the fact that I think when it is all said and done will we see 2 large weather events on the east coast before winters over. Lets see how this all pans out.

In summary:

1. going to get very cold this week- and in many areas prob not ever go above freezing

2. light snow on Monday night (trace-2in)

3. chance at a moderate snow event on Friday (3-5in for some spots) keep checking in for updates on this

4. Chance at larger storm after this week and the cold air should last through most of Feb.

5. I think we will see a classic big storm before its all said and done.

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