Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Storm Imminent, Will It Be Rain, Will It Be Snow? Lets Take a Look

Good morning, the storm that I have discussed over the last 5 days is coming. Both the European and GFS modeling are in good agreement and on their current track have the low passing just to the west of our area which would make way for more rain rather than snow. The picture below shows the GFS model forecast for the storm, notice compared to yesterdays run it is more more stronger with this system printing out a 988mb low.
                                                                                                                                   source:accuweather.com

However, not much has to change for this to be a more frozen precipitation event. All we need is to have more ridging in the west to dig this trough further southeast and we are looking at a snowstorm for our area. Right now no modeling is showing this solution and just have a front coming through with a upper low riding along the front, but they are right on the brink. If 7 days out I have to go on a limb and predict were the snowfall will be, I like this projected snowfall path shown below but moved about 30 miles southeast....


source:weatherbell.com

This basically puts extreme Northwest NJ and the majority of New England in the accumulating snow zone. Over the next 7 days the models are going start waffling with every run but I will be looking for a trend to develop. I will post more on this tonight after I can take a look at this afternoons trend in modeling. Right now tho I think we are seeing a favorable trend for this to become more snow for our area...stay tuned

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