Monday, November 19, 2012

Monday Night: The Cold Is Coming and Keep an Eye on Middle of Next Week

Good Evening, I want to take you through what I believe will be the progression from this weekend on...




                                                                                                             
source: weatherbell.com

Below Normal Temps Days 5-7                             Even Colder Solution 7-14 Days out

In addition a storm will form in the US during this same time period.  The question will become will it form near the great lakes region or will it form on the east coast. But first let's look at what the upper atmosphere will look like during this same time period...

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source: weatherbell.com

Notice the blocking over Greenland (negative NAO) and over Alaska (red regions), this is what is allowing the jet stream to form a trough over the majority of the continental US during this time period. Blue represents lower "heights" which basically means heavier air which translates to colder air. Now the question is how and when will a storm form given these conditions. Right now longer term modeling shows very strong storm turning up into the lakes next Wednesday..

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       
  source:weatherbell.com

This storm track will depend on a variety of factors including how those red blocking regions over Greenland and Alaska end up forming over the next week. If we see the blocking over Alaska progress more to the north west, that will allow this storm to potentially come together close to the coast line. I am not ready to predict a storm on the east coast, but I do see a slight chance how the modeling can arrive at this solution. What I am confident in is that there will be a storm somewhere between Chicago and New York. As of now Chicago is ground zero. This will be interesting to look at over the next few days. In any regard, after this week the cold is coming so get ready for winter..more tomorrow..

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