Tuesday, September 1, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: A Hot Humid Week to End Summer

Well technically summer is over from a meteorological standpoint, but from the unofficial end of summer we look to Labor Day. The hot and humid weather will continue through the rest of this week as a tropical like air mass sits over us. Below you can see the upper level pattern characterized by a trough out west and a ridge of high pressure over our area..

Now for you winter weather lovers, this is the exact pattern you DO NOT want during the winter for cold and snow. Anytime you get that trough near the west coast and into AK it rises pressures downstream to the east. In the summer that results in hot humid conditions, in the winter mild conditions. Will this be the pattern for the winter? Time will tell.

We get some relief as we head into the weekend where temps should drift back into the mid 80's. I do not see any sign yet of any blasts of fall weather on the horizon. Summer should want to hold on overall for some time. 

By the way, just in case none of you have seen this check out the Pacific! Three typhoons at once!

Not going to see that too often let me tell you. 

Thanks for checking in.

Monday, August 31, 2015

Monday Morning Note

Good morning everyone. It is going to be a quiet but hotter week with temperatures in the upper 80's in most spots. Not seeing much of a threat of any rain at this time. I will have more details along with some other weather related tidbits tomorrow morning. 

Enjoy your day!

Friday, August 28, 2015

Friday Morning Tropical Update: Erika Loosing Steam

Good morning again everyone. Wanted to give you all an update on tropical storm Erika based on latest model guidance. The good news is model trends overnight have shifted the track of Erika more westward. This is key as the storm now runs into a very hostile environment in terms of gaining any strength. There are two reasons why this westward track does this. For one, it now is going to travel directly over terrain of the Caribbean which will cut off a lot of its development the warm ocean is providing. Secondly, it is going to run into a lot of upper level wind shear. Just think of this as fast winds that cut off rising air from developing into strong thunderstorms- a key ingredient for any tropical system. 

So lets take a look at the updated NHC track..

You can see a clear shift west from yesterday. Notice the land it is traveling over now. This relates to the latest model spread which is also further west..

Based on the projected paths of those models above, most of them would be taking this directly into upper level wind sheer as seen below by the orange colors to the west of the low center..

The key yesterday was that models were projecting this storm would turn more north and avoid most of this shear. Now it looks to be running literally into a brick wall.

IF this guidance holds, the end result might be nothing more than this..

Nothing to impressive there. Yes it would bring rain early next week to Fl, but not anything to write home about. 

To summarize, this situation still needs to be monitored. You guys can now see the difference one day can make on the evolution of this. I think we will have a better handle on this by tomorrow. IF last nights trends continue then we can close the book on Erika. I am not ready to make that call yet however. 

Stay tuned!

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Thursday Morning Special Update on Tropical Storm Erika

Good morning everyone. I wanted to give a special update on projections for a tropical storm/hurricane that could impact the SE United States next week. This is only a preliminary update and as the days go I will go into more detail, but I want to give everyone an idea of what is currently going on.  The potential impact timing is early to mid next week. 

Lets start off with the current situation...

Looking above you can see we have a tropical system just to the north of S. America. This is tropical storm Erika and it has been developing over the last 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center has issued this outlook..

You can see the cone which represents its possible tracks and the timing they are expecting for this system. The H in the black circles represent that they are expecting this to develop into a hurricane. It is not a surprise that if you compare the current model spread to the NHC's track it looks similar below..

You can see that at this point many models are pointing to a storm that either hits southeastern FL and then curves northward or in some cases drifts into the Gulf. In order to determine which solution will be likely we have to monitor the upper level pattern which steers hurricanes. 

Looking above at the GFS Ensemble you can see a big ridge over SE Canada, and a circle off of GA which represents the storm. The placement of this upper level ridge (red colors) is key. If you get that ridge slightly more east or west it will have a drastic impact on the trak of this storm. That is what will determine if it skirts FL and goes out to sea or its more of a direct land hit. I am not ready to jump on any solution yet. I just want you guys to know this track can change over next few days even tho the model spread says one thing. 

Looking at an actual projection of the HWRF model (special hurricane model) of where it expect this to make landfall. Below is the simulated radar..

Just one model projection, but it is a model that will be come more relevant as we get closer to the event. 

Stay tuned I will be updating daily as this situation evolves!

Monday, August 24, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Quiet Week Ahead, Eyeing Tropical Systems

Good morning everyone. Going to be very brief today as it will be a very busy day at work (market). An upper level ridge of high pressure is just offshore today which will keep things more on the humid side with temps in the mid to upper 80's. As we head into tonight/tomorrow morning a weak cold front will approach from the west..

Expect a few showers but nothing to really write home about. In the wake of the front things cool down again in the low to mid 80's with very low humidity for the rest of the week. You can see below the overall jet stream pattern for this week..

Anytime the jet stream dips over us we get cooler and at times unsettled weather. In this case I am not expecting much unsettled weather outside of tonight and tomorrow morning. 

Moving on briefly we actually do have a tropical storm in the Caribbean. Its name is Danny and has been the talk of the weather community over the past few days..

Here is the satellite image..

There has been a lot of debate on where this goes  and if it strengthens, but here are current model projections..

I will keep you guys updated if this situation gets more interesting. Also, there will be another tropical system developing in the longer range that we will need to track. You can see the storm on the euro out in the Atlantic about a week from today..

Stay tuned!

Thursday, August 20, 2015

Thursday Night Update: Taking a Look at the Front

Good evening everyone. Well i'm sure by now most of you have heard about rain for Friday but I am here to tell you Friday will not be a washout. The main rain event is tonight into tomorrow and in fact, we will see clearing by the afternoon. It appears many of the weather outlets are now showing this. Lets dive in...

We currently have a cold front just to our west and approaching..

Rain is breaking out to our west as the result of "forcing" from this front..

This rain will last into the morning then taper off. Models are now showing this. Take a look at nam model for 11am tomorrow below. You can see most of the rain is clearing out.

Yesterdays run at this time showed this..

You can see the front is projected to come in faster than originally modeled. I see this a lot with these frontal system which is why my first hunch was Friday would be sparred when did the Tuesday weekly summary. 

As the front finally clears we will have absolutely phenomenal weather conditions with low humidity and temps in the low to mid 80's!

Thats all for now.