Tuesday, August 4, 2020

8am Update: There She Blows

Tropical Storm Isaias is rapidly approaching the region with torrential rain, coastal winds and a tornado threat. This storm moves in fast this morning and exits by later this afternoon. The winds pick up later this morning into the afternoon. The highest winds are near the coasts where they can gust up to 50mph and maybe up to 70 mph in a local spot. The consistent winds will be less than this. Inland there will be gusty winds up to 45 mph but much more rain from this. Several inches of rain will fall NW of I-95 from this storm. 

On the northeastern flank of the storm there is a tornado threat today as rotating storm move in from off the ocean.

Currently here is the radar...




Its center is located over VA currently and racing north.

The heavies rains will be west off the coast and the highest winds will be east near the coast. Gust of 50 mph plus are likely near the coasts and gusts up to 45mph inland today. The peak winds will be this afternoon.

By 11am this storm is really over our area...





There will be an active tornado threat on the northeastern flank of this storm later this morning and afternoon as storm cells move in rapidly off the ocean with some rotation...


Here are estimated peak wind gusts form this storm. Most of these winds occur this afternoon. The models tend  to overdo these amounts so id take 70% of these...


Remember these are gusts not consistent winds. The consistent winds will be up to 45 mph near the coasts and up to 35 mph inland today.

Here are rain projections...


Notice the heaviest rain west off the coast. Again wind threat is east and the rain threat is west. There will be some local amounts over 4" with this.

The storm is ending by later this afternoon with some back end gusty winds...


A quick hitter but with a big punch.

Monday, August 3, 2020

Monday: Tropical Storm Isaias Targets Region Tomorrow

Good morning. It has been a while since I last posted but the occasion calls for it as we will have a rain packed tropical storm approach the area tomorrow. Expect very heavy rains and gusty winds. The biggest wind impacts will be west off the coast and the biggest rain impacts will be along the coast. I expect gusts of at least 50 mph tomorrow at the coast. There is a chance this can still strengthen to a Cat 1 Hurricane but that is not the forecast at this time. I will have another update 8pm tonight. 

Lets take a look...

Tropical storm Isaias currently is spinning off the cost of Florida. Its strength is borderline Cat 1 Hurricane...


The National Hurricane Center has this as its projected track, S means tropical storm...


AS you can see by tomorrow this thing targets the area. Here is projected radar at 1pm tomorrow...




As you can see soaking rains are moving through at this time. This will last till tomorrow night.

When it is all said and done 2-4 inches of rain will fall off the coast...


The highest wind impacts will be directly on the coast. I would expect gusts over 50 mph tomorrow as this whips through. Below is model projected max wind gusts. Usually this tends to be overdone...


Could this strengthen to become a Cat 1 hurricane. That is possible due to the nature of the very warm water off the coast and also a favorable placement of the jet stream. Below is the projected placement of the Jet Stream.  The storm will be approaching the rear right enterence region of the Jet. In english this means the storm is approaching a very favorable environment where the lifting of air will be aided by the jet steam. This means that the storm could strengthen more than expected...



Stay tuned. I will likely have an update at 8pm tonight before this storm approaches. 

Monday, June 29, 2020

Summer Posting Schedule

Posts will be more limited during the summer months.

I will focus on any interesting upcoming weather events such as severe weather outbreaks and hurricanes. I will usually comment on these weekly on Monday mornings. 

I will also have holiday forecasts such as July 4th. Expect this to be released by Wednesday.

Once the fall hits the normal frequent posting will resume.



Wednesday, June 3, 2020

Wednesday: Thunderstorms Approach This Afternoon

Good morning. We had some impressive storms overnight and will have another round incoming later this afternoon as a storm complex approaches from the northwest...



This organized complex of storms (MCV) has been quite impressive and should be aided by some upper level instability over our region today as it approaches early this afternoon...


There can be severe cells embedded within this complex with high winds and maybe some isolated hail. 

After this clears through, there may be another window later this afternoon for more storms as a cold front passes the region...


The models are indicating the focus can be more south but I think if there is enough daytime heat in between we can see more storms to the north too. 


Looking at the upper levels, the image below sums up a lot we need to see...



The orange and grey areas indicate instability or in other words the potential for a parcel of air to rise if aided by lift. When air parcels rise they condense and form towering storm clouds. The red and blue wind barbs shows winds at 5000ft and 18000ft. There will be enough difference in wind direction and speed to cause some shear which means storms that develop can sustain themselves by keeping the updrafts and downdrafts separate. There should not be enough directional shear however to cause any tornados. 

Taking a step even further back this whole storm setup is due to an upper level ridge that has moved towards our our area. As is often the case, storms form on the edge of these ridges...



So keep an eye on the skies starting early this afternoon there is some action looming. 

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Memorial Day Weekend Outlook

Kind of hard to believe Memorial Day weekend is already approaching. Overall we should have a decent weekend on tap. Especially the latter half.

Summary:


  • Upper level low pressure system lingers over the area through Saturday
  • This means clouds mixed with a little sun Friday and scattered showers Saturday with temperatures around 70
  • By Sunday and Monday everything is clear with sunny skies and temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s.

We currently have a weather pattern that involves a cut off upper level low to our south and high pressure to our north...


This upper low spins towards the area by tomorrow (Friday) causing some showers to break out mainly in the southern zones...


By Saturday the low is more directly over our area causing more clouds and unsettled weather. Saturday morning and afternoon look to feature some rain...


This does clear out however by Saturday night paving the way for a beautiful Sunday and Monday.

Temperatures will be in the upper 60s to mid 70s Sunday and Monday with sunny skies.

Overall not too bad.

Enjoy. 

Friday, May 15, 2020

Storms Later Pave Way for Nice Weekend, Rain Next Week

Good morning. It is going to be a nice day overall. Temps soar into the 80s before a cold front and thunderstorms approach the area later today...


By late afternoon the storm should start firing up. Some can be severe in localized spots as there is enough instability and changing of wind directions with height ahead of the front.

Below shows wind speeds at different heights of atmosphere and shaded instability...


This means in isolated spots we have enough lift in the atmosphere and change of wind direction with height to have a few isolated storms ahead of the cold front later this afternoon. 

The weekend then look excellent with sunny skies and temps in the 70s.

We then have rain on tap as a tropical system interacts with a front on Monday and Tuesday...



This could potentially be a big rain maker and a very dynamic setup. Early next week is not going to be ideal.


Thursday, May 14, 2020

Storms Tomorrow

Thunderstorms possibly severe are expected by later tomorrow afternoon. Stay tuned. Will do writeup later tonight.