Saturday, December 3, 2016

Saturday Morning Quick Video: Winter Might Just Be Coming...

As I discussed yesterday, arctic outbreak on tap end of next week then the question is will snow follow for the big city areas the following week? My 2 min video below shares a few additional thoughts. Also, light snow possible on Monday morning for areas in northern Mid-Atlantic. 



Friday, December 2, 2016

Friday Morning: Arctic Outbreak on Tap, Snow to Follow?

Good morning. As I have mentioned we have a critical 2 week period approaching in terms of the rubber hitting the road for the winter pattern I expect. I showed how some seasonal modeling did not look promising, however recent trends have gone against what those seasonal models show. These swings in the models represent what I believe to be a seasonal transition taking place. That is hard for models to process.

The video below takes you through what action might loom in the weather pattern over the next 2 weeks including an arctic outbreak next week.

Summary:


  • Chilly weekend with temperatures in the high 40's
  • Light precipitation Monday morning maybe a few snow furies
  • Storm system approaches Tuesday and Wednesday
    • Mostly rain with the chance at some snow in NW NJ and PA
    • New England Mountains several inches can fall
  • On heals of this storm system intense arctic air plummets into the country
    • Temps crash into the 30's for highs low 20's for lows in Mid-Atlantic
    • Much colder in the interior
  • We then turn our eyes to week 2 where evidence is surfacing that promotes a more favorable set up for snow in the Mid-Atlantic from mid month on

Enjoy the video....


Thursday, December 1, 2016

Thursday Morning Note: A Lot to Process

Quick post today. Last night the new Canadian seasonal model came out and it did not support a cold stormy winter for the Northeast. Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell.com pointed this out and it made me do some comparing to what other models have been showing. The alarming thing I found is that this model looks almost identical to the United States (CFSv2) seasonal model. You can see the comparison below..


This is concerning and needs to be considered. However, it is not time to throw in the towel. We are going to find out very very soon if these models have any merit as we are entering a two week period where the seasonal transition expected in the winter forecast should start to take hold. If it does not or if I see no evidence of that happening then I will have to update my thoughts and forecast for the winter. 

The long range models going out to 16 days are showing some impressive cold move through the entire country by the middle of next week....


As I mentioned on Tuesday, a few storms will also develop as well. At this time they look to be initially rain but as we get past the 15th of the month the seasonal transition could easily turn the tables and bring the white stuff fairly quickly.

Just some food for thought. I am not changing my forecast just pointing out some new data that just came in. 

Things cool down this weekend, briefly warm up then should cool down again more significantly towards the end for next week. I will have more details on all of this before week end. 

Thanks for reading. 

Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: Critical Two Week Period Coming Up

Good morning. As I mentioned yesterday, the first day of Meteorological winter (December 1st) is two days away. This means that the next few weeks will be critical in terms of how this weather pattern develops vs what was/is expected from a forecasting standpoint. To review, in my Winter Outlook I mentioned the Northeast, particularly New England would see a very active winter. The Mid-Atlantic would be back and forth as some storms gave rain and some snow. 

So how do things look? Well, I am not too concerned about shots of cold air filtering into the region as there is a lot of support for that on the models over the next month. I also am not concerned about storm activity as many storms will move through the country. However, the million dollar question is will these two factors come together properly to cause more snow than rain for the northeast. My confidence is still high for New England in that regard. For the Mid-Atlantic, we need to wait and see. 

Lets take a look at next 2 weeks....

Rain moves through today and tomorrow with milder temps..



In the wake of this storm system cold air then follows as we end the week through early next week...


We then enter a very interesting period. With this cold air in place there is the chance a storm system develops early next week. The European is the most aggressive with the storm development...



The European cuts a storm system to our west but has just enough high pressure up in Canada filtering in cold air to possibly result in a heavy snowfall for interior New England Monday and Tuesday. Rain for other areas in this scenario.

The GFS is nothing like the European and has nothing...



The reason for the big difference is the upper atmosphere. The European model consolidates energy ejecting from the southwest while the GFS does not. The image below shows the stark difference in the upper atmosphere....European left, GFS right. Notice how the GFS has a ridge of high pressure where the European has the storm system. 

What does all this mean?

It means the models are struggling to handle the weather pattern in transition. There will be a storm next week its just a matter of when and where. It will all come down to the strength of the hp in Canada and if it can be held in place. A big factor in this is the strength of the low pressure system off the coast of eastern Canada. The stronger this is the more likely it is to lock in high pressure. I drew a diagram below....




This image from the European shows a stronger vortex than the gfs in this location. This causes more air to come together where I drew the yellow lines. At the surface this causes stronger high pressure which locks in all that cold air ahead of the storm.

The GFS model has this vortex more diluted and less organized. Thus, it has the high pressure weaker.

Pretty complicated stuff but overall this is nothing more than models trying to sort out the weather pattern. Regardless of if its mostly rain or New England snows next week..cold air again follows as we move through mid Dec...




When this is all said and done we might have to see a little more rain before we see snow but by week 2-3 of December the winter season should really start to take over. It is at this time that the Mid-Atlantic should star to get into the mix with winter weather. 

If that does not happen then well we might have to reevaluate what is going on. No one wants shots of rain followed by cold. Lets not jump to that conclusion at this time.

More later this week. 

Monday, November 28, 2016

Monday Morning: Will The Rubber Hit the Road This Winter?

Good morning. I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving weekend. I am pressed for time this morning but will have a very detailed post out by tomorrow morning on the next two weeks. This is a critical time to determine how this weather pattern will evolve as the winter season gets officially underway. I have discussed my ideas in terms of what I expect to happen, now its a matter of will it happen.

This week warms up as a storm passes to our west midweek. This causes rain tomorrow and Wednesday with mild temps. Things clear by the end of the week with seasonable temps. The next cool down then comes for the weekend into next week. 

What happens next? Will snow follow? More rain?

Find out when I break it all down in my next post tomorrow.


Enjoy the day. 


Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast

Short video below breaks down what to expect over the next few days. Here is an executive summary:


  • Chilly conditions through the next few days
    • Temperatures in the high 40's and low 50's for most spots
  • Some showers will work their way into the region on Thanksgiving with snow to the north
    • Nothing significant expected, a few flakes might fly in northern NJ area
  • Another weather system then approaches for the weekend on Saturday and Sunday
    • Nothing major Mid-Atlantic areas, just a few chilly showers
    • Up north however we need to watch this very closely
      • There is a chance this storm system lingers off the coast and produces snow for New England areas
      • Multiple inches are possible especially at higher elevations
  • Big storm cuts to our west middle of next week
    • Rain for most areas
  • In the wake of that storm we need to keep a close eye on the first week of December for a storm that might be more wintry in nature
    • More on that as the days go on.
Enjoy the video!