Monday, August 14, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary

Good morning. It was a beautiful weekend for most areas with more of a fall like bite to the air than mid-August. As we head into this week, the moderate temperature pattern will prevail with temperatures in the low to maybe mid 80s for spots this week.

Today we see sunny skies but by tomorrow an approaching warm front can cause a few showers can develop in the morning..

Things will be partly sunny however especially by the afternoon.

On Wednesday and Thursday high pressure builds into the region keeping skies sunny with temperatures in the 80s.

A cold front then looks to cross the area on Friday morning causing showers and some storms to move through...

Things should clear by later in the afternoon Friday.

This paves the way for a calm and beautiful weekend with low humidity and temperatures in the low 80s. 

Thats all for now, I have been starting to look at the winter forecast. It will be released in mid October and we have many factors to watch evolve this year. For those of you who might have seen the Farmer Almanac forecast that just came out, its a fun read but I would not put much stock in it. I don't see how anyone at this point can make a strong case for a harsh or mild winter. By October we should have enough info to make a good educated prediction. I certainty do not see anything lining up yet to produce a winter similar to 2014 like I have seen some suggest. 

Monday, August 7, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Rainy Day leads to Pleasant Week

Good morning. Today will be an old fashioned rainy day in the Mid-Atlantic as a low pressure system tracks through our region.

Rain arrives later this morning...

This will continue on and off throughout the day getting heavy at times, especially to the south. 

By tonight the low is tracking off the coast...

Notice the heavy areas of rain indicated by yellow areas.

Rain ends tonight and dry pleasant weather then moves in for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be in the low 80's through Friday with mostly sunny skies.

We then will have to watch for more unsettled weather as the weekend as a frontal system can move into the area. More on this later in the week.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Tuesday: Weekly Weather Update

Good morning and welcome to August. Things will feel like early August this week as temperatures climb into the upper 80's to low 90's through Friday. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies with high pressure in control. You will notice the temperatures rising today as winds move in from the southwest.

For Wednesday, a few afternoon showers and storm may develop as some upper level energy combined with the warm air causes some minor instability...

The same can be said for Thursday.

Things do not get too active till Friday when a big front will sweep through the region..

This will bring with it a very good chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will have to see when the exact timing of this frontal passage is, but as of now the afternoon looks likely.

This will usher in a cooler than normal air mass working its way in from the west....

The center of this cool weather stays near the countries midsection, but it will still be a nice break from the heat as temps fall back down into the low 80's for the weekend with clear conditions.

Overall, I see no signs of this summer pattern we have been under breaking. Any major heat we have is short lived and frequently will lead to frontal passages and cooling temperatures. If this was the winter, we would be in a great pattern for stormy conditions. I ask myself if we are wasting such a good pattern in the warm summer months. Only time will tell, and I will start to look at all of this over the next few months as I prepare my Winter Outlook 2018.

Thanks for reading. 

Friday, July 28, 2017

Weekend Update: Very Wet for Some Sat, Cool Conditions to Follow

Good morning. Taking a look at the weather maps this morning looks more like a fall than winter setup as a summer Nor'easter will move through southern areas tonight into tomorrow....

Heavy rain should impact SNJ down into the Delmarva region from late tonight into tomorrow. 1-3" of rain can fall from this system down in those areas as seen below...

You can see areas in Delaware, MD, and northern VA look to take the brunt of this storm system.

To the north I expect a sharp cutoff especially as you start moving north of Philadelphia. Recent model trends have been to strengthen the upper level low to the northeast of this system which has acted to suppress it more than originally thought. 

In any event, even the areas that do not see much rain do see cloudy skies tomorrow morning. I do expect these clouds to break up though as we get into late afternoon into early morning. The rain will also end by late morning for the southern areas.

This will leave us with a beautiful fall like air mass with high temperatures in the 70's both on Saturday and Sunday. 

Overall, the weekend look decent once we get through tonight into tomorrow morning. 

Monday, July 24, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Clearing and Calm Till Friday

Good morning. Our area is currently under the influence of a frontal boundary this morning which means more impulses of rain moving through the area...

By this afternoon this frontal boundary should drape to our south which will allow the wet weather to end and usher in dryer and more pleasant air for Tuesday through Thursday.

You can see below the cooler air (green) that moves in Tuesday with a northwest wind. This will keep the humidity values down some as we enter the core of the week..

Expect temperatures Tuesday through Thursday to be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the northwest bringing with it showers and some possible storms...

Models are then indicating we can see a wave or two of low pressure develop along this front Friday which could be a chance at more consistent rain...

Regardless, it looks like this will clear out by the weekend paving the way for decent weather. If this front stalls then that forecast will have to be changed. Will update later this week. 

Enjoy the week!

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Morning: On Vacation This Week

Sailing to Bermuda currently, although a healthy moisture feed in the Atlantic is keeping the sun at bay.

Will resume posting next week. Also, the blog will start discussing Winter 2018 as Aug approaches. No outlooks till October but I will start to post on some factors I am looking at.

Stay tuned!