Wednesday, May 4, 2016

Wednesday Quick Update: Today Not In The Clear

Good morning. Wanted to give a quick update on today's weather. Earlier in the week it appeared we might have a break in the unsettled weather today. Unfortunately, that will not be the case. 

We have a very impressive upper level trough that is amplifying quicker than expected...



This will mean more showers move into area later today with more showers tomorrow and especially Friday as this upper low lingers over our area.  You can see simulated radar for later today below..



I am still keeping an eye on Saturday as giving us a break from this miserable weather. I will update on the weekend in the coming days. 

Monday, May 2, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Rain Rain Go Away

Good morning everyone. I tell you, what a miserable week we have ahead. Almost every single day will feature rain of some kind. In summary, we have a stalled frontal boundary to our south. Today through tomorrow upper level disturbances will ride along this front and bring in their associated rounds rain. We might get a little break Wednesday then we have a potential coastal low that will keep things unsettled again through Friday night. Lets take a look..


Current surface map above shows a frontal  boundary just to the south of our area. Things will be a little unsettled today as some warm air moves into the area resulting in some showers.

By tomorrow, a wave of low pressure rides along this front causing rain..


We then might see a little break Wednesday as some high pressure tries to build in the region. I still expect mostly cloudy skies.

For Thursday, we have to deal with a coastal low that is projected to develop..

This low pressure system looks like it is going to linger through Friday..


This will result in on and off rain showers Thursday through Friday. 

So how about the weekend? At this time I think we have a shot for all this to clear out by Saturday mid morning as there appears to be a gap between the coastal low and next approaching front Sunday.

Expect mostly cloudy skies on Saturday with the chance at a few sprinkles in the morning. I will have to take a closer look at this towards the end of the week. 

So why is the weather so unsettled? Well it has to do with the jet stream being blocked or slowed down due to high pressure over Greenland and riding out west. You can see this on the image below. Notice the reds or high pressure in those key areas. The blue represents lower pressures or energy that gets caught over the east. This is what is causing all this unsettled weather, the energy has no where to go. If this was the winter boy would we have some snow to deal with this week. Two months too late!


Thats all for now. I will update again this week as we get more clarity on the weather heading into the weekend. 

Friday, April 29, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Outlook: Unsettled Weather On Tap

Good morning everyone. The good news is we are finally at the weekend. The bad news is it will not be the nicest weekend overall. We have a few rounds of showers to deal with from this afternoon through Sunday night. Saturday looks like it can be spared at this point, but temps will still be in the high 50's to low 60's.

Starting off with today, showers should develop by this afternoon as a upper level short wave spins up the air..


This will be more of a nuisance than anything but it still will keep things feeling more on the damp side.

High pressure then tries to build back in for Saturday which will cause some clearing and temperatures in the high 50's to lower 60's


On Sunday, a stronger more moisture rich low pressure system enters the area causing  scattered showers and eventually a steady rain to develop by Sunday night..


All this should linger through Monday then finally clear out by Monday night into Tuesday.


All this unsettled weather is due to a parade of upper level energy flowing through the area from the north and also from the west. The image below shows this..

Frontal boundaries between warm and cold air develop and as each disturbance in the upper levels move through, it acts to "spin" up this warm and cold air causing unsettled weather and low pressure systems to form.

You can usually see these frontal boundaries by looking for something as simple as the dew point. Why? Well colder air holds less moisture than warmer air. Below I highlighted where this frontal boundary currently is using the dew point..


Again each one of those upper level disturbances I showed before spins this air up causing the rain we are seeing this weekend. 

Thats all for now thanks for reading. 

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Showers and Storms Today

Below is the simulated radar valid for around 3pm today. A few isolated very strong storms are possible especially near SE PA down into MD. These storms will fire up as a cold front moves through the area. 



I cut a video last night below discussing the potential for tornadoes today out west. Check it out if interested. 

Monday, April 25, 2016

Severe Weather Tomorrow Out West: Tornadoes Likely

Dangerous situation for areas in the nations heartland tomorrow as conditions are favorable for supercell thunderstorms and tornadoes. Video below breaks it down. ..


Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Warm Weather Gives Way to Seasonable Conditions, Severe Weather In Heartland

Good morning everyone. It ended up being a beautiful weekend with the exception of some lingering showers on Saturday morning. As we head into the front part of this week we will have more beautiful conditions today with temperatures in the mid 70's. 

As we head into tomorrow we will have some unsettled weather move our way with showers and Thunderstorms possible through tomorrow night..



Notice the colder air in New England. This is not snow for anyplace but the  Green and White mountains Tuesday. I do expect those ski areas to see some flakes mixed with rain as there are arctic origins from the air mass entering the area. Accumulations are possible there. A big part of how the colder air is locked up there is the big blocking high we have over Greenland right now..



This -NAO pattern allows colder air aloft to get trapped near the east as seen by the pocket of blue near New England. However the bigger issue this week lies out west. Take a look at the pocket of blue over Nevada moving towards Nebraska, Kansas and Oklahoma. This represents an upper level low pressure system which will be moving directly into warm moist air. 

When you get cold air aloft running into warm moist air to its east severe weather is in the cards. There are many factors needed to support a severe weather outbreak and on Tuesday many of those will be present for the nations heartland. I am going to go into more detail tonight in a video but he easiest way of showing how unstable the atmosphere will be is by looking at a parameter that shows the potential for how much a parcel of air can rise. The more air rises the more it cools and condenses and the bigger thunderstorms can get. Here is what this parameter  looks like for tomorrow..

Some very extreme values especially over Nebraska and Oklahoma. We also will have a strong sheer or wind direction change from the lower levels to upper levels which will aid in causing the thunderstorms to spin. You can see this below where I circled the difference between winds at 18k feet and 5k feet....




Like I said I will go into more detail on this in a video tonight. 

Moving back to our area, things will clear out by Wednesday. Wednesday will feature sunshine and temperatures in the mid 60's. Clouds move in again on Thursday with the chance at more unsettled weather into Thursday night as the remains of the severe weather maker out west move our way..



More on the severe weather tonight at 8pm. 

Friday, April 22, 2016

Friday Morning Weekend Outlook: Boring Means Nice, Snow in NE Mountains Next Week????

Good morning everyone. As always, when the weather is boring that means beautiful conditions are on tap.  Some showers will move through this afternoon giving way to clear skies .Saturday with temperatures in the high 60's to low 70's. 

Sunday will feature cooler conditions as we get a northern flow of air from Canada...




Expect temperatures to range from the low to mid 60's for highs. Saturday night and Sunday morning will be cold as this air mass arrives. Low temps early Sunday morning will be in the mid 30's for spots with freezing possible to the north..




Pretty interesting situation setting up for early to middle of next week. We have another big block that will form over Greenland which means a -NAO pattern. This means energy gets trapped underneigh the block along with cold air. Too bad it wasn't middle of the winter or boy would I be getting excited. It might be late April but a set up like this can actually cause snow in the mountains of northern New England. Here is an illustration below..




You can see model projections for Tuesday showing this...




Pretty cool stuff and this is not off the table. I have seen this happen on occasion. Places like Stowe, Jay Peak maybe Killington cold see snow next week!

As for us other folks (pretty much everyone reading this), this will mean just cooler conditions with a chance at rain showers early next week.


Thanks for reading.