Monday, March 30, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning everyone. We are right at the finish line now in terms of this lingering colder than normal pattern. After this week (which actually will not be too bad) we are completely out of the woods and everyone can welcome spring and warmer temps! We might just have one more small hurdle to climb however.

In terms of temps this week things will be pretty moderate across the region. Most days will be in the 50's and maybe we can even throw a 60 or two in there by the end of the week. The sun is just as strong as it would be in early September and despite any colder than normal air masses aloft, it really helps warm things up. 

The one issue we might have is the possibility of some snow in northern counties at a higher elevation on Tuesday night. This is due to an approaching clipper system that could pack a little bit of a punch

The good news it it appears surface temps will be too warm for most of the forecast region and the only places that have a shot at seeing snow accumulate on the grass would be NNJ above 800ft after the sun goes down. Basically, this is not a huge concern of mine at this time but it still reminds us that winter is swinging as it goes down.

As we get to later in the week another storm system approaches but at this time it looks to be very wet for most areas. I have been following this for a few days now and I can confidently say I do not see this being a snow threat unless you live in Northern New England. Expect rain as we head into the weekend from this system.

In the wake of this storm, I see signs of the floodgates to spring finally opening. Check out the warm flow that should develop as we head into next week..

As typical with the transition in the season, the northern jet stream weakens and retreats north and we have the southern jet starting to dominate the pattern bringing with it a warmer flow of air. 

I will point out that the northern jet will still dip in at times and this is what can cause severe weather as we head into May. Thunderstorms feed off that contrast in temps. 

Thanks for checking in, I will keep my eye on the clipper and that weekend storm system and keep everyone updated as the week goes on.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Weekend Post on Tap: Winter Might Show its Claws Once More

Interesting 7 day period ahead of one last gasp of winter. I will have more commentary on this sometime this weekend into Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Thursday Morning Weather Briefing

Good morning everyone. The story of today will be more of the warm temperatures than it will be the rain. A low pressure system will pass to our west and bring with it a southwesterly flow. That mean warm moist air comes into the area..

Here are high temps today!

Don't get too excited tho, cold air returns for Saturday as the arctic front passes..

Don't be surprised to see a few snow showers on Saturday as there will be a storm system off shore. 

As we head into next week, temps will not be warm but not too cold either. Except slightly below avg temps which this time of year is not too cold. 

Winter is officially over in my book! That is unless you live in northern Vermont or Canada. There is a stray chance that we see one last hurrah before the second week of April, but I can't place my chips on that at this time. I only mention it because the lingering active pattern should last until then. However everything needs to happen perfectly for a snow event say by late next weekend. 

I am going to be doing a review of my winter forecast at the end of this week and breakdown how things turned out. Also, we will be entering severe weather season soon. My posts will not be as frequent as they were during the winter but I will try t0 update the blog a few times a week and when there is active weather such as thunderstorms to talk about. 

Thanks for checking in!

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Wednesday Morning: Nothing to Add Today

Not much more to add since Monday. Rain hits the area later this week with a small chance at snow this weekend. We get a few spotty days of warm ups but overall the warmer than normal pattern continues through next week.

I will have a pattern update video tonight around 9 discussing when I think spring will come on strong. 

Monday, March 23, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Colder Than Normal Will Continue

Good morning everyone! Sorry to break it to you but the overall pattern will stay colder than normal for the next 10 days. Spring does not want to arrive quite yet. There will be a few warm days thrown into the mix, but overall colder than normal means a lot of days in the 40's the next 7 days. 

You can see that stubborn western ridge of high pressure in the jet stream which causes colder than normal conditions over our area as the jet sinks south allowing in Canadian air..

As I have mentioned in the past, this ridge is the result of very warm water off the pacific coast. Here are the gfs ensembles high and low temps next 10 days..

You can see towards the end of the week a few 60's but overall not too warm at all. The top row is high temps the bottom row is low temps for NNJ. 

I expect this colder than normal pattern should break by the 2nd week of April in the worst case scenario. Once it breaks we then have to be on the lookout for severe weather potential heading into May. 

Could it snow again? Unfortunately yes it could given this pattern but as each day goes by its chances will diminish. 

As a huge surge of cold air pours into the east this weekend, we need to be on the lookout for a storm to develop. At this time I do not support its chances but the models have been flirting with the idea that a low pressure system develops along the cold front..

The problem is the trough will be positively tilted in orientation so for a storm to develop Saturday we need things to change. I will keep an eye on this, but at this time just expect colder than normal conditions from this weekend into next week. 

That's all for today, thanks for checking in. If things change with Saturday, you will be the first to know!

Friday, March 20, 2015

Friday Morning Storm Update: On Track, Video Gives a Play by Play

Good morning everyone! Our storm is now moving into the area and things remain pretty much on track. As I mentioned in my quick note last night the models did trend south a little which means the snow will last a little longer further south. I don't expect much changes to my accumulation map except for maybe taking the 3-5 out of southern RI and Mass and pulling the 3-5" band 15 miles further south in NJ. I kept video pretty short, but here are some pointers:

  • Snow breaks out by mid morning for most areas
  • As we approach the lunch hour it really starts to pick up in intensity
  • The heavier snow should last till early evening
  • The overall snow stops later tonight
  • Snow will change to rain for areas south of Philadelphia and mix with sleet in the Philadelphia region 
  • To the north things should stay mostly snow throughout the day 
  • If you are below 500ft and especially near an urban area do not expect much accumulation on the roads (slushy)
    • your snow will mostly be on the grass
  • The prime spot to be in my opinion is over 700ft in North Jersey- that's where you will see the largest impacts as surface temps will be colder 

Enjoy the video!

Thursday, March 19, 2015

Technical Difficulties no Video Tonight

I had a video done but can't upload it due to computer issues.  Forecast is pretty much on track. If I had to change anything it would be adjusting the heavy snow band slightly South by say 15 miles. This is due to a small potential shift South thus colder for Central NJ. There could be some six inch amounts but generally I still like 3-5 from North Central NJ into North Jersey and into NYC. At elevations above 500ft you guys will see a little more snow than most.  Near Phili I still like 2-3 and South of that maybe an inch.

I will try to recut a video very early tomorrow morning before the commute to keep everyone updated.