Friday, September 22, 2017

Friday Update: Maria Stays Offshore, Limited Impacts

**Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 19th**

Good Morning. After making a devastating impact to Puerto Rico, Maria will spare any impacts to the US.

All model guidance now takes this offshore...

This is due to an approaching trough that will cause the flow to take it out to sea...


That trough should leave us with a great Fall chill by next weekend...


Wednesday, September 20, 2017

Wednesday: Maria Making Direct Impact With Puerto Rico



The image above says it all. Maria made landfall with Puerto Rico as a Cat 4 storm just before 7am this morning. I can only imagine some of the damage the eastern part of this island is seeing. Winds are looking to be sustained at 150+ mph based on air recon and satellite analysis.  The radar and wind instruments are all down on the island due to the severity of the storm.

This storm will move through Puerto Rico today and then turn north...


This hurricane then gets too close for comfort for the east coast next week...




I do think this storm stays offshore, but it will need to be watched extremely closely as this storm will stay quite powerful. 

Will have updates to come. 



Tuesday, September 19, 2017

Tuesday: Jose Barely Noticeable Today, Maria Now a Major Storm

Good morning. What was hurricane Jose is now just a leftover low pressure system that will stay offshore and have limited effects today. You can see based on the satellite below this is not an impressive system...


Now compare that to Maria which is a real problem right now as it barrels towards Puerto Rico as a cat 5 storm...


I haven't seen any images yet, but it ravaged the islands of Dominica last night with a direct blow and now has Puerto Rico in its cross hairs.

Here is the updated cone from the NHC...


This storm is expected to turn due north then the question is will it become an east coast threat. At this time I do not think so. It will be a close call but most major model guidance have it curving out to sea due to an approaching trough from it west...


Below shows the trough coming in and kicking it out...


Regardless, we will have to still keep an eye on this as it is way too close for comfort. Lets also hope this doesn't hit Puerto Rico as bad as it is expected to.

More to come. 

Monday, September 18, 2017

Monday Tropical Update: Jose Flirts With Coast, Maria Needs to Be Watched

Good morning.  The tropics continue to be active and we will be dealing with some effects from Hurricane Jose Tuesday and Wednesday. The storm will stay offshore but some rain will make it inland and winds should pick up, especially along coastal areas.

The National hurricane center shows the expected track......


By tomorrow afternoon you can see some outer rain bands trying to make it inland...


Winds will start to pick up by Tuesday night near coastal areas as the storm passes to the east of the Cape. Expect gusts up to 50 mph along the coast maybe locally higher for areas on the Cape. 

The most rain and wind overall will be eastern New England....

This all clears out by Wednesday night letting us then focus on the next more powerful hurricane (could develop to Cat 4) Maria...

Model guidance show a potential track that can effect the East coast next week...


With an area of high pressure to its north, this needs to be watched closely as it can cause the storm to not curve out to sea...


Looks like we will have a lot to keep us busy over the next week.

Thanks for checking in. 

Sunday, September 17, 2017

Tropical Update Tomorrow AM

A lot to discuss. Impacts from Jose are still on the table for middle of this week and we have a more powerful system Maria to follow in the long range.

Stay tuned.

Friday, September 15, 2017

Friday Tropical Update: Jose Flirting With Northeast

Good morning. Well as I mentioned Monday, I would keep you posted if anything evolved with tropical storm/hurricane Jose and it has. Most of the model consensus has come into agreement that this storm will come very close to the east coast early next week. The exact details differ as always but its a threat that needs to be watched.

Currently Jose is a tropical storm but will strengthen back to a Cat 1 and possibly Cat 2 hurricane....


The movement of the storm is being dictated by steering areas of pressure, in particular an area of high pressure to its east...



Earlier in the week the models had this storm turning north then making a sharper turn to the north east. Since then things have changed due to a blocking area of high pressure to Jose's north strengthening on the models. Below shows this trend. Keep an eye on how the placement and strength of that high pressure area to Jose's northeast changes on the image below...

Notice on the last few frames (recent model runs) the area of high pressure becomes larger and further southwest. This blocks Jose and prevents the storm from just moving directly out to sea. I am confident at this time the storm gets blocked, its just a matter of how close to the coast does this get.

The GFS model is the most aggressive and has a Cat 1 Hurricane tucked right into the Mid-Atlantic...

The European is more offshore and flirts with eastern New England...

Both scenarios are very plausible and it will will depend on how strong that block or area of high pressure is I showed you before. If the polar jet stream decides to get too active, it will break down that block and the storm is allowed to escape easier.

At this time I am favoring a solution more towards the European which shows a close call type scenario. If a solution like the GFS verifies then we would have a much bigger problem on our hands.

Stay tuned, daily updates to come. 

Monday, September 11, 2017

Monday Morning: Irma Winding Down, Could Have Been Worse

Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 16th

************************************************************************************


Good morning. As we look at our latest satellite image below, we can see Irma is a shadow of what used to be (currently a very weak cat 1)...



Heavy rains and possible tornado activity will continue today into Northern Florida and Georgia.

The storm hit a few areas particularly hard yesterday including parts of the Keys, Marco Island and Naples. Sustained winds were around 70mph for those areas (higher in the keys) but some gusts above 130mph were recorded. I haven't seen all the reports yet of damage but I know there is some. In terms of storm surge, I have not confirmed that situation either, but I believe it was not as bad as feared.

This storm was impressive in so many ways, especially when it was out over open water. The thing that I found the most fascinating was how the models struggled with this storms exact track even up to yesterday. The land interaction with Cuba for example, was not forcasted on all major models, then the same models that did nail the Cuba interaction failed to see that Irma would move more inland yesterday and not just skirt the west coast of Fl.

The interaction with Cuba was the first reason why this storm did not hit as a Cat 5. Despite the fact the upper air and water conditions were favorable once the storm turned north Friday night towards Florida, it never quite had the time to rev up to what it was. Granted, it got back to a Cat 4 right before landfall. The biggest thing I noticed however was that the eye wall never fully regenerated. The microwave image below shows this. Notice the circle in the middle and how it weakens a little when it goes over Cuba then tries to restrengthen but never gets back to a full closed structure....




You can see it strengthen as it moves north from Cuba but its weighted to the northeast side. The result was still an impressive wind field but not as intense as it could have been. This did surprise me as the pressure really started to drop but the eye never fully recovered. 

Another major factor that helped this storm stay more tame was its track. Notice how the storm goes due north then right into SW Fl as opposed to riding directly up the coast. This helped keep the potential devastating storm surge at bay as the wind configuration was not as ideal for a big surge.

Even tho the European model nailed the west track it failed to see the turn inland as seen below...



The red X's represent the actual storm track vs European model runs. 

So at the end of the day this storm will be remembered as being significantly impactful but not completely devastating as we all feared. We saw how factors can effect a large storm like this and how models struggle even up to the day of the event to handle these factors. In my opinion we dodged a bullet overall. 


So hey how about Jose???  That storm will linger in the Atlantic for a week before trying to figure out where to go. Yes some models have it as an east coast threat, but most have it harmlessly moving out to sea....



I will be the first to keep you posted if anything changes.

That's all for now, thanks for checking in.