Wednesday, January 17, 2018

Wednesday Morning Update

Well I can't say I'm too surprised by the lack of  snowfall for many but the overall forecast idea is still a bust for some.

Here are the latest totals I can find...


You can see how there are accumulations in NW NJ and NE PA like I mentioned however anyone I had in the 2 to 4 inch zone will be closer to 1 to 3. That is where i was wrong.

Expect all snow to finally move in over next few hours...


Areas that were all rain change to snow before this ends. Expect a coating to an inch.

Up in New York State and parts of New England the jury is still out as the storm has several hours to go.

I will have a final summary out tnt along with a pattern update. 

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

Tuesday Night Storm Update: Elevation is Key For Many

Good evening. My forecast from this morning is on track and snow will begin building into the region later tonight into the early morning. I can not emphasize enough that if you live in NJ you need to be at the higher elevations to see decent snowfall (NW NJ). For lower elevation areas and areas near the coast (CT and RI included), I do not expect anything too impressive. Rain could mix in at times and any snow that falls will struggle to accumulate past 1-2 inches. I tried to reflect this the best I could in my map. Don't say I didn't tell you so if you do not get much with this system (folks closer to the coast), although I think many will be happy with less rather than more snow.

The video below gives a play by play on what to expect:



I will have an early morning update out tomorrow before everyone heads into work. 

Tuesday Storm Update: The Final Forecast

Good morning. A light to moderate snow event will move into many areas tonight into Wednesday morning. For anyone along I-95 to the southeast I do not expect major impacts from this as accumulations should be cut down by some warmer air aloft.

Summary:


  • Some occasional light snow today but nothing too serious
  • Steadier snow moves in tonight and will accumulate to areas to the NW especially at the higher elevations
  • Snow ends south to north tomorrow morning into the early afternoon (New England)
  • For areas closer to the coast expect some mixing which will cut down the accumulations
  • For areas just off the coast the snow will accumulate some but warmer surface temps will keep accumulations tame
  • The hardest hit areas will be in the higher elevations of NW NJ, NE PA then into NY state, CT and Mass

Here is the final snowfall map...


Again, its the higher elevations that will see the upper end of these ranges in my opinion. If you are closer to sea level use the lower number in your range.

Here is an animation of the storm below. Notice how the snow picks up tonight and is very light or non existent today...


I will have an update tonight around 7pm.

Monday, January 15, 2018

6pm Comment

There are no changes to my forecast from this morning. This will be a complicated setup where the timing of when and how close to the coast the low develops Tuesday night will determine boom/bust areas. At this time I am thinking to get respectable snow with this system, you need to be NW of I-95 in the higher elevations of NE PA, NW NJ , southern NY state into Ct and Mass. For eastern NJ and areas near the coast in New England I think you need to be on the lookout for mixing with this system. Accumulations should be tame in those areas where an inch or two will fall.

For areas more south like Baltimore/Washington, you can pick up an inch or maybe two on Tuesday night as the front moves through. Nothing too impactful in my opinion.

Expect the height of this system to be Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. For hardest hit areas of PA, NW NJ and into Ct and Mass a general 3 to 6 inches can be expected with localized areas in the 4-8 inch range. Again for areas in NJ and PA, its at the higher elevations I expect the bigger impacts.  

My updated map tomorrow morning will reflect my final thoughts.

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Snow In the Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. Well although last weeks thaw took its toll on our snowpack, winter comes back this week with a light to moderate snow event for the region. 

Summary:


  • light snow moves into the area tomorrow afternoon
  • Snow starts to accumulate by the evening
  • Overall this will not be very intense with the exception of southern New England
  • Storm is at its peak Tuesday night as a coastal low takes over
  • Expect the snow to taper off Wednesday morning for most areas
  • Update will be out at 6pm tonight

So here is my map. For all areas in the 2-4 inch zone I do not expect this to be too intense just a longer duration light snow. For southern New England I do expect things to really pick up Tuesday night...



So lets take a look at whats going on...

A cold front moves into the region tonight into tomorrow...


Low pressure then looks to develop along this front Tuesday night...


The low then intensifies as it reaches New England Wednesday morning...

Off the coast snow growth should be decent with very cold air aloft. Ratios in NW NJ into areas of New England off the coast should  be decent. This means that there should be no problem picking up a few inches. I expect the jackpot with this system to be in northern Ct into Mass. 

In the wake of this storm, milder air moves in for next weekend.


I will have an update out at 6pm tonight, stay tuned!




Friday, January 12, 2018

Friday Note: Need to Watch Middle of Next Week

Good morning. As rain moves through our area today (snow for northern New England tomorrow) the next focus will be on the cold moving in early next week along with the chance a a redeveloping clipper off the east coast...

We need to watch this closely as it can trend to be more amplified which would be snow for the area on Wednesday. At this time I like the idea of light snow for mid-Atlantic and moderate snow for Eastern New England.

The pattern is amplified to support it with a ridge to the west and Atlantic blocking to the east...

More to come on this tonight.

Wednesday, January 10, 2018

Wednesday Update: Ice In New England, Rain South

Good morning. Quick post today on the weathermaker this weekend.


A low pressure system will ride up a stalled front on Friday night...


Expect heavy snow in western PA, OH and Western NY state with sleet in northern New England with this system. Rain and very mild for all areas to the south on Friday and Saturday.

I do believe this trends a little more south which would still mean sleet but gives the chance at accumulating snow towards the end of the event for the mountains of Northern New England.

Cold air then arrives in its wake towards the end of the weekend.

Next week starts colder and we need to watch a late developing storm system off the east coast towards the middle of next week (will study this more in days to come)..


From there a more up and down pattern is expected with shots of warmer and colder air  as we reach the 7-14 day period. I do not see any sustainable warmups at this time believe it or not, just a transient pattern (back and forth).


I am pressed for time this morning but will have more detail on all of this tomorrow am.