Sunday, December 17, 2017

Pattern Update Tonight 8pm

Will discuss the moderation in temperature this week and where the cold air and storms will be centered Christmas week.

Friday, December 15, 2017

Friday: Suprise Snow Today

Good morning. We have a quick hitting surprise snow event later today. A wave of low pressure will try to intensify at the last second off the DE coast later today. In its wake it will drop light to moderate snowfall in spots. Here is my forecast:




In the dark blue zone I expect widespread 2 inch amounts and up to 4" in isolated spots. In the light blue zone 1 to maybe 2 inches can be expected. 

Storm develops early this afternoon...


Its a quick hitter and should be over by the evening. 

The reason for this developing at the last second is a slight shift in the amplification of upper air energy. This ended up causing enough dynamics in the atmosphere to develop this small storm...



Enjoy the flakes today! I will be focusing heavily on the next 2 weeks as a very storm pattern looks to develop. I warn you tho it will boom in some areas bust in others. Stay tuned!

Thursday, December 14, 2017

Thursday Update: Who Doesn't Love This Start To The Day!

Good morning! This is my view this morning as I write this...

Who can think of a better way to start your day with a solid 2 inches of fluffy snow?Region wide we saw 1-2 inches last night from our clipper that moved through. Snow will start tapering off rapidly now and leave in its wake a white scene for today.

Temperatures stay cold through this weekend, then some moderation occurs next week. There will still be the chance for unsettled weather which we can hone in on a later post, but the real period we need to watch is Christmas week....



We will have an impressive ridge develop over Alaska which will drill cold air down into pattern. This is a feature we cannot ignore. On the other hand we have a southeast ridge that tries to fight the cold air. In between you get a very active storm track. I do think models have been overdoing this southeast ridge some. The target area here is the northern mid Atlantic into New England for multiple chances at winter precipitation Xmas week. Yes some areas see mixing and rain with this pattern in the mid Atlantic but we can not nail those details down this far out.

Bottom line:

No blow torch in sight. Some moderate next week (still shot at unsettled weather) then active storm track develops for the following week.

Tuesday, December 12, 2017

Tuesday Night Pattern Update: What to Expect Over Next 2 Weeks

Wednesday afternoon note: 

*1 to 2 inches region wide tonight. Snow starts around 9pm ends before dawn.  Expect morning commute slowdowns as it will be very cold.*



Wednesday Morning:

Please check out the video below from last night for my thoughts on the long range pattern. We will have very cold arctic air over the region the next few days so bundle up! Temperatures are currently in the teens with a bitter wind this morning. Also, tonight we see snow move through the region as a weak clipper swings through. Expect up to 1 inch of accumulation in spots. 


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The video below breaks down the period leading through Christmas. I discuss the potential for temperature trends as well as snowfall. Enjoy...


Tuesday Weather Discussion: Snow to the North, Long Range Questions

Good morning. There are no changes to my snow forecast from yesterday. Snow is currently breaking out to the north and will continue all day. The jackpot areas will be the northern mtn ski resorts that should see over a foot of snow.  You can see on the radar below how the snow is spreading into the area....

Later today the heavy show shifts to interior Maine, Northern VT and NH as the low intensifies...


On the way backside cold air causes lake effect snows and snow showers for the areas that are being hit right now. Overall a ski country special.

From there we have a clipper that can drop some light snow down in areas further south on Wednesday night and Thursday...

At this time most models are weakening this significantly as it comes more east which leaves the mid-Atlantic areas with just the chance at snow showers at this time. It bears watching however as these clippers can be sneaky. 


We then have to watch out for a storm that passes to our south Friday night...

There has been some speculation this can end up coming more north and effecting the northeast with a decent snowstorm. I am not sold on that idea at this time however. For one, the GFS is the only model that has suggested that and what it is showing in its upper air pattern is not backed up by any other models. Of course that doesn't mean this cant still trend to be a snowstorm but trying to be objective and look at all the forecast data suggests we should not get too excited on this one.

The GFS has handled the upper air energy a little differently as it tries to eject the southern piece out ahead of more ahead albeit it has started to trend less with this...


This can change but at this time I wouldn't expect the storm on Friday into Saturday.

From there the Jury is still out in week 2 and beyond. Models are indicating this pattern can default back to a more la nina look with a ridge in the southeast...

However, we cannot ignore that massive ridge over AK. That can deliver some serious cold so I am not sold on any warm ups yet leading up to Christmas. Maybe just a few days of moderation. I know I have been trying to get you guys a White Christmas so lets see how this plays out. There will be alot of storm activity next week and beyond its just a matter of where is it rain and where is it snow.

I am going to have a video out tonight at 7 or 8 that breaks down my long range thoughts in more detail. 

Monday, December 11, 2017

Monday Weather Update: Snow to Hit Northeast Tonight-Tuesday

Good morning. More snow is in the forecast for early this week, only this time its for mainly the northern Interior. This will be a ski country special. A low pressure system approaches from the northwest tonight and it will re-intensify on Tuesday as moves towards the northern coast. When it is all said and done this is what I expect for the region. This will be updated tomorrow morning...


Snow starts to move into the western areas of the map later tonight.  By early tomorrow morning the snow starts to make its way to the east. This is all colored areas on this map see snow start to fall including southern New England, NE PA and NW NJ. As the storm intensifies on Tuesday however the focus will then be more to the north. As the storm intensifies, warm air will get pulled into all areas near the coast which will result in rain, especially southeast New England. 

I expect a good jackpot with this system for the mountain areas of the northeast. Over a foot of snow is possible for Ski areas especially in northern VT and Maine. 

For the folks who live in NW NJ and NE PA its a tough forecast for later tonight/early tomorrow morning but I do believe the flakes fly as the approaching disturbance appears to have some muscle to it. A quick few inches in not out of the question especially in the mountain areas. 

Moving to the projections, you can see snow spreads in late tonight/early tomorrow morning...


Not all models are showing the snow making it as far south as NNJ and NE PA but I think some will just maybe not AS south as seen above. I base this on the fact our disturbance will be decently strong...


Models still might strengthen this some as this approaches so that is why I left the chance for 1-2 inches in those more south zones on them map.

In any event, the focus then moves to the northern interior as this storm intensifies later on Tuesday due to an arctic disturbance moving in and phasing....

This causes the heavy snowfall to breakout on Tuesday through Tuesday night in the northern interior....



Notice the warm air/rain getting pulled in as I mentioned with heavy snow to the north. 

In the wake of this storm very cold air moves in for the rest of the week...

We then will have to look for another chance of winter precipitation later in the weekend/early next week although I am not sold on anything yet.

Thanks for checking in. 

Sunday, December 10, 2017

Sunday Storm Summary: Overall Decent Region-wide Snowfall,

Good morning. What a nice snowy day it was yesterday! The region saw about 3-6 inches with the 5-6 inch amounts falling where some impressive banding of snow set up (see snowfall reports here). I did not expect those bands to develop so far inland like they did. This was not my best forecast. I should have stuck to what I put out Friday morning...



Instead I adjusted it to this yesterday morning...




Why did I do this. Two reasons, the dry air initially really held back the precipitation and I did not expect that mesoscale banding to make up for it throughout the interior. The fact that the morning model suite showed the precipitation shield moving more east I decided to pull back the amounts. This was a mistake and I let getting burned in the past influence changing my forecast.  So with all that being said I am 0-1 on the year. The good news is I think we have a lot to track this winter season. 

I will be discussing future storm threats in a post tonight or tomorrow morning. Two periods of focus, middle of this week for mostly New England and again into early next week. Stay tuned!