Friday, October 20, 2017

The Official 2018 Winter Outlook

Here is the full version of my Winter Outlook 2018



Welcome to the 2018 Winter Outlook. Below you will find the bottom line forecast followed by a detailed video on how I came up with my prediction this year. 


So lets get to it.....

Expected Temperatures:



Expected Snowfall:




Winter Highlights:

  • There will be a lot of activity this winter but it will be confined to a few key areas
    • The hardest hit spots should be the Pacific northwest, Northern Rocky Mountains, and the Northern Plains into interior New England.
    • Winter should come on quick this year in December which will be a contrast compared to the last two winters.
  • For New England
    • Not exceptionally cold but very snowy especially in the interior.
    • Areas near the coast should see above average snow but the core of the heaviest snowfall relative to averages stays more inland due to influences from a ridge of high pressure.
    • Ski areas should do great 
  • For the Mid-Atlantic
    • A mixed bag this year
    • Average temperatures for the northern Mid-Atlantic and slightly above average for southern Mid-Atlantic (Balt/Wash, Phili)
    • Expect average snowfall overall with slightly above average to the north and below average to the south
    • Overall similar to last winter in terms of snowfall amounts but slightly cooler and the chance for areas to the NW to see enhanced snowfall (edge of the light blue)
  • For the Southeast
    • Warmer than normal temperatures with limited snowfall this year
    • This will be due to a persistent ridge of high pressure working its way onshore frequently 
    • Non eventful overall
  • For the Pacific Northwest into the Rocky Mountains
    • Very active this year with well above normal snowfall
  • For the Central US into the Great Lakes Region
    • Average winter to the south but cold and snowy to the north
    • Coldest air relative to averages should be in the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes this year.

The Video Breaking Down the Rational 



Wednesday, October 18, 2017

The 2018 Winter Outlook: First Glance

Good morning! Well that time of year is finally here when we speculate on what the winter season ahead may bring. Below is my map release of the Winter 2018 Outlook. A detailed Discussion will follow on Friday.









Overall I expect an active winter with the worst conditions in the Pacific Northwest including all Mountain areas, the northern central US, and interior New England. These places will have the coldest conditions with the most snowfall. This will be a very ski friendly winter coast to coast.

For southern New England I expect a decent winter with slightly cooler than normal temps and slightly above average snowfall.

For the Mid-Atlantic I think average is the word with normal temps and normal snowfall. Areas more south (orange zone) expect a warmer winter with lower than normal snowfall. 

I will have a video breakdown along with the rational behind this forecast out Friday. 

Monday, October 9, 2017

Monday: Rain Ends Later Today, Seasonable Weather Arrives Wednesday

*WINTER OUTLOOK 2018 OUT NEXT WEEK*


Good morning. The remnants of hurricane Nate are moving through our area and will last into this afternoon...



Rain should end by late afternoon giving way to muggy conditions to end the day. 

Warm air then stays on tap until later on Tuesday when a cold front moves through the region...


This will bring a nice fall chill back into the air for the second part of the week. 

The pattern then remains fairly transient over the next week. We will have periods of warmer than normal then shots of seasonable to maybe slightly below move through. 

Remember the Winter Outlook is out next week. Thanks for reading. 

Wednesday, October 4, 2017

Working on Winter Outlook

Limited posting over the next week or so as I start to finalize my Winter Outlook 2018. It will be out a week from Monday on October 16th. Stay tuned!

Will still have a post here or there in the meantime. 

Thursday, September 28, 2017

Thursday: A Shot of Fall Air, Then Back to Warm

*Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 16th*


Good morning. It has certainty been hot out there lately but that all ends (for now) today and cool air from Canada rushes in....


This will result in highs in the 70's and 60's as we head into the weekend and early next week. At night lows will hit the 40's for many areas. This will be a welcomed relief.

This should not last long however as warm air is set to return for the middle part of next week...


I expect that this pattern does hold for at least a week or two causing the 1st half of October to be warmer than normal. As far as the tropics are concerned, there is no major activity to monitor at this time. 

Thats all for now, enjoy the beautiful weekend coming up!

Friday, September 22, 2017

Friday Update: Maria Stays Offshore, Limited Impacts

**Winter Outlook 2018 Out Monday October 19th**

Good Morning. After making a devastating impact to Puerto Rico, Maria will spare any impacts to the US.

All model guidance now takes this offshore...

This is due to an approaching trough that will cause the flow to take it out to sea...


That trough should leave us with a great Fall chill by next weekend...