Monday, July 24, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Clearing and Calm Till Friday

Good morning. Our area is currently under the influence of a frontal boundary this morning which means more impulses of rain moving through the area...

By this afternoon this frontal boundary should drape to our south which will allow the wet weather to end and usher in dryer and more pleasant air for Tuesday through Thursday.

You can see below the cooler air (green) that moves in Tuesday with a northwest wind. This will keep the humidity values down some as we enter the core of the week..

Expect temperatures Tuesday through Thursday to be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the northwest bringing with it showers and some possible storms...

Models are then indicating we can see a wave or two of low pressure develop along this front Friday which could be a chance at more consistent rain...

Regardless, it looks like this will clear out by the weekend paving the way for decent weather. If this front stalls then that forecast will have to be changed. Will update later this week. 

Enjoy the week!

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Morning: On Vacation This Week

Sailing to Bermuda currently, although a healthy moisture feed in the Atlantic is keeping the sun at bay.

Will resume posting next week. Also, the blog will start discussing Winter 2018 as Aug approaches. No outlooks till October but I will start to post on some factors I am looking at.

Stay tuned!

Monday, July 10, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Hot Muggy Conditions Take Hold This Week

Good morning. This week will feature a good dose of hot and humid summer weather especially as we get into the heart of the week. As usual, this will bring with it the chances of thunderstorms as boundaries of air and upper level disturbances cause this hot muggy air to lift at times.

Today will be the nicest with temperatures in the mid 80's and tame humidity. As we enter Tuesday this changes as the winds shift and come in from the south bringing the humidity with them.

A frontal passage will produce thunderstorms some of which may be severe as we enter Tuesday afternoon...

All areas will have the shot at the storms, but the most likely area for severe weather will be a little more towards the north.

Wednesday should be mostly dry with maybe a few isolated pop up storms. Temperatures will stay warm in the upper 80's.

Even muggier air arrives on Thursday with temperatures in the low 90's with high humidity values. We will also have the chance at more strong to severe storms as an upper level disturbance will again increase the chances for the warm humid air to rise and form storms. 

We will have to watch how the weather evolves as we enter Friday. Models are hinting that a wave of low pressure may form along a frontal boundary which could cause more rounds of showers into Friday morning....

The frontal boundary will however lower temperatures into the low to mid 80's Friday giving the regions a break in the heat. 

The weekend then looks to be fairly tame with mostly sunny conditions lower humidity and temperatures in the mid 80s.

I will update as we get closer to the weekend along with comment on any severe weather we see tomorrow or Thursday. 

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Thursday Weekend Update: Wet Today, Clearing by Weekend

Good morning. As we wake up today, a low pressure center is moving towards our area along a stalled frontal boundary...

This will keep things cloudy today with a few rounds of showers especially to the south.

Showers run into tomorrow morning as the low finally departs to our northeast...

Sun will come out tomorrow once this system leaves the area.

As we head into Saturday we will have a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's.

A cold front then approaches Saturday night. Showers should develop ahead of this front but as of now it looks like they are confined to areas in New England as seen below...

I am not ruling out showers for areas closer to the coast Saturday as any disturbance ahead of this front can cause a few pop ups.

The cooler air from the front arrives Saturday night with lows in the mid to high 50's for many spots...

This will lead to a beautiful day Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's for most spots and sunny skies. 


Friday, June 30, 2017

Friday Holiday Weekend Outlook

Good morning. As we head into a nice long holiday weekend, more humid summer air is back on tap. Today will feature temperatures in the low 90s with humid conditions. This warm moist air combined with some upper level energy moving in over the area will fire up some showers and storms later this afternoon...

The main focus will be to the north of Delmarva as that is where the most upper level energy will be present....

As we get to Saturday things will stay hot and humid with temperatures in the upper 80's to lower 90's in spots. There will be another shot at showers and Thunderstorms later Saturday afternoon as a weak cold front moves through the area.

In the wake of this cold front the humidity will ease on Sunday but temperatures will still be in the mid 80's with Sunshine. Some isolated showers but overall Sunday looks dry.

You can see below the drier air work in Sunday as winds shift more from the west northwest ...

Monday and Tuesday also look to be beautiful days with lower humidity and temperatures in the mid 80's.

Bottom line: a typical summer weekend on tap with hot (and humid) conditions and some storms. The heat eases some as we head into early next week. 

Enjoy the weekend!

Monday, June 26, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Summary: Beautiful Week Ahead

Good morning! The humid air of late last week has cleared out and we are entering a stretch of gorgeous weather over the next few days. Mostly sunny skies with temperatures in the 70's to lower 80's will be the theme all week. 

All this is due to an upper level trough or dip in the jet stream over our area seen in blue...

This keeps winds coming from the west northwest hence the cooler drier air we will be experiencing.

There will be a few frontal boundaries moving through the area can cause a few stray showers as the week moves on but I do not expect much until at least the end of this week where a larger low pressure system up in Canada can cause enough forcing to cause some showers to pop up over the region Thursday into Friday...

A warm front then looks like it wants to move through this weekend which will cause temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80's with unsettled weather. I will keep an eye on this as the week progresses.

Looking at the long range...

Taking a quick look at the long range I do not see any data supporting sustainable heat over the east at this time. We will have our warm shots but the pattern overall looks to keep things more mild and active as we head towards July. This means temperatures mostly in the 80's which I do not think anyone will be complaining about.

More at the end of this week. 

Friday, June 23, 2017

Friday Weather Update: Muggy Tropical Day on Tap

Good morning everyone. Today will feature very humid unsettled conditions as a bunch of weather systems move through the area. We have a lot of energy in the upper atmosphere moving through thanks to former Tropical Storm Cindy and an approaching upper level trough. The image below shows all of this energy heading towards the area..

This energy brings with it very humid air. The image below shows the water content in the air...

This will make things feel very muggy today and provide good fuel for heavy showers and storms to develop today into tomorrow morning. 

You can see as we get towards the afternoon, the unsettled weather moves in...

This will continue all day into early Saturday morning. By mid morning Saturday all this should have moved through. 

The humid air should start to ease later in the day on Saturday as a front moves in from the west. This will pave the way for a beautiful day on Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's under mostly sunny skies.