Winter Storm Outlook

Winter Storm Outlook:

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Wednesday, February 19, 2020

Wednesday: Snow for the South!

It may not be snowing much in our neck of the woods, but the south will see some snowfall Tomorrow. Granted it will not be signifigant but for down there a few inches is a big deal. 

So lets take a look...

A low pressures system approaches from the west tomorrow afternoon allowing snow to breakout across North Carolina...

The snow really kicks in by Tomorrow night. This snow is the result of warm air overrunning a cold high to the north. That cold high will make hit cold and dry over our region.

Here is projected snowfall amounts from the European model. I think this makes sense...

As you can see a few inches.

Looking to the long range, not much will change. There will likely be a decent shot of cold air next week to make it feel like winter again but it should not be too sustainable. We will have to watch if a storm can spin up when the cold air is over our region. Its possible, but again I am not hopeful.

Here is that projected pattern....

You can see we actually do have higher pressures over the Pacific Northwest allowing cold air to pool in the central US. The question becomes can we push this a little more east and undercut the high pressure to the north. If we can there is a chance it can snow.

At this time I say the best shot for snow is the heartland with this pattern with a cold shot to follow for our area. I will keep an eye on this. 

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

Wednesday Note: Some Winter Tonight

An initial batch of snow and ice will impact NE PA, NW NJ >1000ft, interior CT and Mass. This will change to rain after a few hours. To the interior north (ski country) it's all snow.

I expect 1 to 3 inches snow and ice in Poconos. Light accum over NW NJ and 1 to 3 inches across most of Mass (off coast) and 1 to 2 interior CT.

Ski Country sees 3 to 6 from this.

Timing is late tonight into tomorrow morning.

Monday, February 10, 2020

Monday: Rain and Snow to North Gives way to Cold Weekend, Mild to Follow

Good morning. A few episodes of rain will move through this week with snow to the north in areas such as Vermont. Some front end snow can fall a little further south in areas Thursday but it will change to rain. 

Very cold air moves in briefly for the weekend.

We simply are just not in a winter pattern as long range signals continue to show warmer than normal projections. Sure we can see a fluke storm since it is only early February, but all the long range signals look horrible.

Rain continues on and off through tomorrow as frontal boundary is stalled to our south...

On Thursday a brief area of frozen precipitation moves in with snow to the north. The ski areas should pick up some decent snow here ahead of Presidents Day weekend...

Colder air follows for the weekend. It will actually feel like winter for the NY Metro and be absolutely brutally cold over the north with negative temps. For the metro areas expect temps in the low teens by Saturday morning. The peak of the cold is Saturday then it starts to moderate...

In the long range the mild weather continues as we enter next week...

The Polar Vortex also is projected to strengthen over the pole. This means low chances for any sustainable winter weather as we progress through the rest of Feb. When the vortex is this strong the cold air stays locked up to the north...

Thats all for now. Stay tuned for more details on the weekend weather. 

Wednesday, February 5, 2020

Wednesday: Some Ice But Mainly Rain, Snow Way North

Good morning. We are not in a favorable pattern for winter weather in the east. Over the next several days a few waves of low pressure will move through the area bringing a mix of ice, snow and rain. For northern interior New England, some decent snowfall can fall at the ski areas. To the south its more of a mess with mostly all rain for Mid Atlantic and a mixed bag for southern New England. A lot of weather to track next few days.

Lets take a look...

An area of precipitation moves in late tonight bringing with it rain and freezing rain to the northwest with some snow to the north...

The freezing rain will be mainly focused over PA, southern NY state, NW NJ and CT. Snow will fall over New England...

Expect some light ice in NW NJ with a little more moderate ice over PA and parts of CT and southern NY. For the snow to the north, expect a moderate accumulation with this with locally higher amounts in the mtns of VT,NY, NH.

There is a break in the action on Thursday afternoon.

Then by Friday, a wave of low pressure develops on the frontal boundary that is established with tonights inflow of moisture and more rain enters areas near the coast with snow to the interior NW...

More ice for southern New England but the ski areas of New England can pick up several more inches with this by Friday night. We are likely looking at over a foot for areas like Stowe,Jay, etc. when it is all said and done by Saturday morning.

There is a chance we can see a little back end snow in NW NJ and parts of southern New England Friday afternoon as cold air does filer in...

I will be keeping an eye on this.

So bottom line is Ski Country especially to the far north does well next few days. For areas to the south its more of the same. 

I am not hyped up about any big winter events near the big cities over the next 10 days. The weather pattern simply is not favorable. We need to get lucky.The interior can continue to do well however as more waves of low pressure move through next week.

Stay tuned. 

Monday, February 3, 2020

Back Tomorrow

The winter pattern may not be great but we are at the snowiest time of year so still need to keep our guard up. Many storm systems will be on tap this month we just need one to be white.

Wednesday, January 29, 2020

Wednesday: Storm Should Stay Out to Sea, Winters a Dud

Good morning. The latest data is in and unless we see some pretty dramatic changes over next 24 hours this storm should stay out to sea this weekend. I can support this solution because when I look at the atmospheric pattern I see too much of a progressive flow. 

This means an output to what the GFS has is likely correct. At best maybe this can trend a little west to scrape New England with some snow...

So I cannot say I am surprised. You all know I was against this storm from the start.

The long range looks like more of the same. This winter is on life support from all the long range signals I am looking at.  Our best bet is to hope for some winter weather as we head towards March when the seasonal transition starts which can shake up the pattern a little.

I know, it is only January 29th but I really do not like what I see. This has been one of the worst winters in recent memory. Up there with some of the all time snowless so far. It snows where it wants to snow and it is crystal clear snow is not in the cards for this region this winter. 

Stay tuned. It really can not get any worse.