Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Tuesday Weather Update: Upcoming Heat is Short Lived

As the story of the summer goes any heat spells we get are short lived and followed by unsettled weather. This is due again to our upper air setup which includes a ridge out west and a stubborn trough that wants to hold over the east. Alot of this is due to the temperature profiles of the northeast pacific ocean which is causing the jet-stream to dip over our area. 

Until then we will witness a warm up middle of this week with temps going into the high 80's for most spots...

The heat then breaks towards the end of the week as unsettled weather enters our area Wed night. Not a washout but def some showers and a storm possible..

The weekend looks decent with high pressure mostly in control. This will change as we approach monday however as that trough I mentioned makes a return as seen below by the deep blue colors..

This will bring with it very unsettled weather for the start of the week as low pressure develops along the coast..

I expect this pattern to keep repeating for the rest of the month through the end of summer. Quite simply, the drivers behind the pattern are staying in place. We will not have to keep focus on the upcoming peak of hurricane season as we approach closer to Sept. 

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Tuesday Weather Update: More Storms Coming Our Way

More of the same today as a powerful cold front approaches our region sparking more heavy showers and possibly severe thunderstorms. This is all due to a unseasonably cool air mass approaching the eastern third of the country. I talked about last week how its like a winter pattern in the middle of July. Take a look..

Very deep trough over the eastern third of the nation and that will cause temperatures in some places to drop to up to 25 degrees below normal for the central states. We will cool down the middle of this week into the 70's and low temps in the low 50's as a result of this front.

For today storms will start to fire up by this afternoon, I included an image of the simulated radar for 4pm today..

There is enough instability in the atmosphere that some of these storms can be severe with high winds and frequent lightning.

This all is clear by the end of the week and we have a nice weekend ahead..

Temps will warm up again over the next few weeks as they normally do in the summer, however any shots of heat will be short lived. We are locked into a stormy pattern for the foreseeable future and into Aug. All the result of our upper air set up.

Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Mid-Week Pattern Update: Cooler and Stormy Next Week

Big summer cool down next week for the Nations mid-section towards the east coast. This will bring unsettled weather into our region. Details in the video below along with some Winter thoughts...

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Tuesday Update: Not Much to Add Yet

Everything looks on track, right now its a waiting game to see how strong this tropical cyclone gets over the next 48 hours. I will take a closer look at this tonight and tomorrow and have a detailed post in the AM. In any event by Saturday weather should be back to normal for all regions with summer like conditions.

For now here is the hurricane models foretasted max wind gust swath...

Monday, June 30, 2014

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Tropical Threat Looming

Good morning, there is a lot to talk about today. What appeared to be a pleasant end to June and leading up to the 4th of July now has drastically changed. This is due to a wildcard being thrown into the mix which is the potential for a tropical storm/hurricane to develop in the Atlantic later in the week. I will start off by saying it is highly unlikely that our area will be hit directly by a tropical system, the focus is more for the coast of the Carolinas. However, this storm will through a wrench in the 4th of July weather forecast. Lets start off with looking at a front that will approach our area Wednesday and Thursday bringing with it showers and storms..

This is valid Thursday night, but expect unsettled weather later on Wednesday and during the day on Thursday as well. Now take a look off the coast of SC, see that low pressure center? That is the tropical system that is starting to develop by Thursday. 

As we head into the 4th of July here is where its at...

The outer banks look like they will be impacted from this system, and to the north and west (our area) will be the victim of cloudy conditions and showers for this time Friday. 

As we head into Saturday this system will curve out to sea and should continue to intensify..

Our weather will become pleasant at this time. So lets going into a little more detail on what is going to help this storm develop and the upper air set up. 

Here are the ocean temp departures from normal..

As you can see very warm water along the east coast currently. This favors a strengthening storm along with the passing cold front ahead of the storm that will cool things down over land. Boundaries between warm and cold air are where storms like to travel.

Moving up 12,000 feet in the air, we can see a Jet Stream through sweeping through the east coast (blue colors over the lakes), with the storm just to its east (small blue circle just off coast)..

The saving grace here is that we have a progressive pattern, meaning that this through will not "capture" the storm and pull it into land, which is what happened with Hurricane Sandy. Since the flow will be fast in the jet, everything should glide out to sea. Most models have that projection at this time..

So bottom line what do we know...

  • Unsettled weather will effect the regions starting Wednesday and especially into Thursday and Friday, as a front then a tropical system effect our area
    • This will compromise the weather for the 4th holiday
  • It is still too early to predict how strong this storm will become. I would estimate it turns into a tropical storm but stays short of being a hurricane. This would still batter the outer banks with high winds and waves.
  • The storm has not developed yet so this forecast is subject to change. These tropical system one they develop and strengthen pretty quickly which is why I will be tracking this all week. 
Many updates to come on the blog this week, be sure to keep checking in.