Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Final forecast is out first thing tomorrow morning

Southern trend in models so far today. Takes axis of heavy snow into central Jersey and parts of South.  If necessary I will make changes in my preliminary map when I issue the final forecast tomorrow AM.

Preliminary Forecast for Thursday's Storm

Good morning. I am going to get right to the point today. If you want the commentary yesterday's posts and video are full of it. I am going with a solution that is slightly more north of most model guidance but south of  NAM model guidance. Here is what my Preliminary thoughts are on Thursday's system. However, I think its important to try to actually forecast a storm not wait until 24 hours before the event. Sure things could change but that's why I use the word preliminary. I will update by tomorrow night if necessary. Folks further south you are not out of this I just am trying to anticipate model shifts. Snow should break out in most areas Thursday morning and last until the evening hours. Snow might start as rain or mixed precip in the southern zones which is why accumulations are less there. 

This storm will be impacted by the storm that will pass through our area later today. The storm later today will have a quick burst of snow for Central NJ into New England followed by ice and freezing rain. Expect up to a couple of inches in northern counties tonight before the changeover. 

That's all for now, be careful out there tonight and stay tuned for further updates to my forecast for Thursday's storm.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Monday Night Video Update: We Have Another Storm on Tap!

Video below gives a brief overview of my thoughts on the storm system to effect our region tomorrow and the more significant system Thursday. I will have my first map out tomorrow morning for the Thursday event. Be careful tomorrow NIGHT (typo), snow changes to ice for most areas and I do not think it gets above freezing for many. It is tomorrow's storm that lays the framework for Thursday.

I'm cutting video tonight around 730.. Stay tuned

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: An Eventful Week Ahead

What a week of weather we have in store guys. March could not have come in with more action on tap and today's post will attempt to break it all down for you. Before we begin here where snowfall reports from yesterday's event..

My Map which was made on Saturday morning..

Clearly some flaws in the map above, but some areas worked out well. The forecast was correct for CT,RI, Mass, NY state and Central and South Jersey. The forecast was wrong with accumulations too high for Northern NJ and too low for Long Island. Overall I did a fair not excellent job with this. I give myself a C. You guys be the judge.

Now to the action! Lets dive right into this week. Now that we are within a few days of the action we can start to trust the models a little more. Remember last week when I was pounding the table saying due to the complexity of the jet stream we had to wait to this period to sort this out. 

It all starts with a storm system tomorrow that will cut to our west. The result will be a quick peroid of front end snow changing to ice then plain rain for a little. The changeover will occur because the storm brings in warm air from the south since its track is to our west. Here is the model projection for Tuesday night..

This is right before the changeover to rain. Now lets pause here and illustrate the role this storm will play for our next system on Thurday that could be the significant weather maker. 

As the storm departs to our west, it sweeps in a cold front. This cold front is KEY as it sets up our baroclinic zone or boundary between warm and cold air for our next storm system to ride along I show the cold front below sweeping into the region..

Lets now turn to 18,000ft in the atmosphere and look at what is going on aloft. We are going to be dealing with two disturbances- one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream. We need both of those disturbances to interact in order for this boundary of cold air to set up in the perfect spot for a storm system to effect our area. Let me illustrate..

The gfs is faster with the northern disturbance. Because of this it pushes the baroclinic zone too far south ahead of the southern jet stream disturbance. The end result is a storm that is more to the south.

Here is the illustration:

The end result at the surface..

Notice how the whole storm is more south.

Is the GFS correct? I do not think so and there are three reasons why:

  • European is further west
  • Canadian is further west
  • The GFS ensembles are further west
For example here is the Canadian at 18,000ft at same time as GFS..

The end result..

As you can see a further north solution. The European looks similar. To illustrate my third point check this out..

Those green lines represent all the different ensemble members projection of the northern disturbance vs the operational in white. The ensemble is saying the operational might be too fast. Thus the ensemble is more like the European and Canadian.

So now that I really dove into this what do I think for my first estimate?

That's all I will say for now. This storm could be a strong one if these variables come together correctly. By strong I mean 6+ inches.

Stay tuned!

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Sunday Night Update

Snow continues to fall in our northern counties. I have seen totals reported as high as 5" so far in parts of Morris county NJ. In Morristown 3" has fallen so far. I also personally measured 3" in Chatham NJ which is just off of I-78. It has just changed over to sleet there.

Expect a few more inches to potentially fall before it is all said and done later tonight. For areas of RI CT and Mass snow will last longer and we will have to see if there is any enhancement from the ocean.  Tomorrow morning I will do a review of my snow map and see how I did. I will take a few final measurements later tonight before I hit the sack. 

Also, we have a very active week of weather ahead. On Tuesday we have more snow that could accumulate a few inches before changing over to rain. Following that, Thursday is something we really have to watch as a wave of low pressure tries to develop along a front. If we get proper interaction between the southern and northern jet streams this could be a more significant system. I will break down the components tomorrow morning along with my first estimate of what will occur. 

Be sure to check in.

Keep an eye on my twitter feed to the right for updates, live footage tonight