Monday, November 24, 2014

Monday Morning Storm Update: Some Details Still Unclear

Good morning everyone. As we are now closer to the biggest travel day of the year, there are still some details that need to be sorted our for this storm. Here is my original forecast from yesterday morning and it has not changed..

This forecast is based on the fact that the storm tracks closer to the coast and some warmer air works its way into central and southern zones. That is why the accumulations are lower in those areas as things may not stay frozen the whole event. This is supported by the European, British and Canadian models. In this scenario, as I discussed last night, the travel headaches only increase the more north and west you go. Now no forecast is ever easy and there are always going to be variables going against you. In this case, the American models are colder with this storm. This would mean that the accumulations are more than what I have for central and southern areas, but not by a huge degree.

As an example below is the difference between the American, European, and British model on temps at 5,000ft which is a critical level for snow..Anything is blue is cold enough for snow, green and yellow is warm enough for rain

British Model..Supports my forecast of snow north and west of green zone

European Model..Supports my forecast

American Model...Does not support my forecast and is colder  as seen by the blue zone over all of NJ and low further off the coast. In this scenario the 4-8" band would have to be adjusted at least 50 miles to the south and east on my map. 

Bottom line I said it before and I'll say it again. I think you blend this to be 65% European model and 35% American model and you have your forecast.

I advise anyone who has travel plans Wednesday to be prepared for delays in all areas especially north and west. This storm starts in the morning and will only strengthen as the day goes on. By the time we get to the wee hours of Thanksgiving morning we are in the clear.

I will be updating on twitter all day and have another big update tonight at 8pm. If I have to change or tweek my snowfall map that will take place by tomorrow. The key today is going to be if the European model starts to trend east and colder to agree with the American model or vice versa. 

Stay tuned for the verdict!

Sunday, November 23, 2014

Sunday Night Special Winter Storm Video Update

The video update below gives a play by play of what I expect to occur with the storm on Wednesday. Things could still change of course but the goal here is to have an actual forecast to keep you guys ahead of the storm. The timing on this storm is Wednesday late morning until very early Thursday morning. The peak intensity should be from later Wednesday afternoon till late Wednesday night. Most of the travel headaches should occur north and west of interstate 95. I explain why in the video. 

I will update again tomorrow morning. Live updates are always on my twitter as well @weatherwilly 

Feel free to leave comments with any questions.


Working on video now to break down this storm, it will be up at 730

Sunday Morning: Winter Storm to Effect Thanksgiving Eve Travel Wednesday

Good morning everyone. I now have enough evidence to support the prediction of a possible significant storm to effect the entire area on Wednesday into early Thursday. Snow will fall in many areas away from the coast and potentially several inches of accumulation are possible by the time Thursday morning arrives. Most areas should start off as rain before the changeover to snow, especially areas north and west of I-95. The good news is since we are very early in the season ground temperatures will be marginal at best for many areas which should help hold down accumulations. 

By nature this blog is always going to be a little more aggressive in making a forecast ahead of time. This means that there is always bust potential as public outlets will generally wait an additional 24-48 hours before releasing a real forecast. Since anyone can go to or to watch those forecasts change everyday, the goal here is to study the factors take a stance and see how it plays out. That is the purpose of this blog. If my forecast turns out wrong which in some cases this winter they will, I will be the first to admit it. 

With that being said, here is my preliminary forecast map for the storm to effect the area Wednesday-Thursday early morning..

I think we might get lucky where this storm is mostly liquid for the day light hours on Wednesday giving folks a chance to get to their destinations. The further north and west you go the more chances at travel disruptions as a changeover should occur more rapidly. By the time Thanksgiving morning arrives I expect most areas to be in the clear.

In terms of model guidance the European model continues to be consistent and suggest this is a storm that hugs the coast. The GFS has corrected west but not as far west as the European. What you end up with is a warmer storm with more liquid on the European and a colder storm with less liquid on the GFS. I still like the 65% euro 35% gfs blend.  

I will break down the models later tonight and have a special video that breaks this storm down so be sure to check in 

Stay tuned to this evolving weather situation! 

Saturday, November 22, 2014

Sat Eve Update on Wednesday's Storm

I will make my first actual prediction tomorrow morning, but confidence is building right now for at the very least a moderate impact event. 

Saturday Morning: Euro Means Business for Wednesday

In my video last night I discussed the potential for a storm threat Wednesday night into Thursday. Yes, just in time for the holiday rush. I also mentioned another threat could materialize on Thursday night into Friday or the two threats could consolidate into one. Well, last nights European model run consolidated all the energy into one compact storm for Wednesday into Thursday effecting most of the area with snow.

The GFS has nada...

Huge difference in modeling here on such an important travel day! At this point, I think the best bet is to weight the European 65% and the GFS 35%. What does that mean? Well unfortunately it means there might be some travel impacts on Wednesday.

Here is my first estimate of what might happen. I really do not think you can fight the euro too much on this one...

I am not going to discuss potential accumulations because there is still the chance this storm does not occur at all, keep that in mind. By tomorrow however, I think I will have enough data to make an actual prediction. For those of you who are curious here is the European models snowfall output.

Read this with caution, this is not my snowfall forecast. The point is the Euro means business! Keep checking in, I am going to really stay on top of this one and try to keep you guys ahead of the situation. For many, the hope is that the GFS is right on this one, but how many times have we seen this routine- GFS out to sea, Euro further west. In many cases the euro does win but has to be adjusted a little to the east. 

Stay tuned, more later this eve.

Friday, November 21, 2014

Friday Night Special Video: Let the drama begin, storm threats showing up around Thanksgiving

The video below breaks down the potential setup for a storm system(s) to effect the east coast just in time for the Thanksgiving period. **This is still speculation and is not at prediction at this time, so do not be altering any plans!* 

If evidence builds I will turn this into a prediction if necessary. 

Here is a summary of the points in the video:

  • Rain storm hits the area Monday night brings in very warm air ahead of it and very cold air behind it
  • The cold air this storm brings in is key as it creates a boundary between warm and cold air along the coast
  • Based on the upper air pattern it is possible we see a storm develop on Wednesday into Thursday and/or Thursday night into Friday!
  • This is all going to depend on the timing of the disturbances in the jet stream
  • Cold air will be in place so if this storm develops then a lot of areas see a chance at accumulating snow

More details in the video below: