Winter Storm Outlook

Winter Storm Outlook:
Updated 12/6

Target Period: Dec 11th-15/^
Region: Northeast
Type: Rain to Snow
Confidence: Low

Wednesday, December 4, 2019

Wednesday: Final Totals Are In

Here are final totals




Vs my final forecast from Sat Night


And here was initial Forecast put out friday morning...


That's all for now.

Tuesday, December 3, 2019

Monday Morning: Snowfall Verification

Here are latest snowfall totals from the storm. Note it is still snowing in eastern New England and Mane and will pile up several more inches...


vs. my Final Forecast....


As you can see forecast did ok up in New England and even down to the coast of CT. Where I didn't get it right was for Central NJ and Western PA around Allentown into western NJ where totals were too high. We will wait for the snow to end later today to grade eastern New England. This actually didn't turn out as bad as I thought yesterday given how difficult this forecast was.

Let me know your thoughts.

Here was the evolution of my forecasts from Thursday to Saturday night...


Stay tuned I will be discussing the upcoming December weather pattern over the next few days. 

Monday, December 2, 2019

6pm Update: It Was Boom or Bust Today

Good evening and thanks for all the follows today. Makes this hobby much more fun when there is a following behind me. So overall the forecast worked out really well in some areas and not so good in other (mainly western NJ near I-78). I am hearing reports of at least a foot of snow in areas of Sussex county and we have about 5 inches here in Morristown, NJ. Tomorrow morning we will see the final totals and compare to the forecast. 

To be honest, this was hardest storm I ever had to predict (really) due to the fact all the snowfall for our area depended on a very small scale but intense band of snow that was projected to develop. Our models just are not good enough yet to nail down exact placement. So due to this, I had to try to use experience and historical analogs. 

Tomorrow we will see how the entire forecast did when the totals are tallied up. I would say right now I am tracking to get a C on this. There is no such thing as an A for effort. 

So as of 6 pm we have snow in many areas still...


These smaller bands will rotate down into the forecast area through at least 11pm. Some areas can pick up another 1-3 inches from these. Currently the most impressive banding is over Sussex NJ and near New Brunswick. 

Short term models show the storm over the next 5 hours moving those bands through. Notice by tomorrow morning eastern New England is getting hit with impressive snowfall. Another 3-6 will pile up there...



The storm will speed up once our upper low moves just offshore allowing surface low to jump towards Maine in a few hours. Currently it is almost there...


Until then periods of snow will still be in the region.


Stay tuned guys, hope you all got some good info over the past few days.

12pm Update: On Track, Heavy Snow Incoming

1PM Note: Need to get off the roads very soon in NNJ. Heavy snowfall has engulfed the entire area and temps have dropped. This is 100% on schedule.

<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

Storm is on track. Our band of moderate to heavy snow has just developed on schedule and travel conditions will significantly deteriorate through the afternoon. I am impressed with the moisture fetch coming in off the Atlantic. 

The storm lasts till tonight and the biggest surprise can be higher totals across NE NJ this afternoon. Areas near Phili are in the clear this is pretty much Princeton north for impacts today.  I will check in again around 6pm with updates.

The video below gives a 1 min summary:





Updated radar below as of 12:20 pm shows very heavy snow approaching due to a moisture fetch off the Atlantic ocean...






Monday Morning 6am Update: No Changes

Good morning. I have made no adjustments to my forecast from last night. I will have a 12pm update to discuss how things are evolving in real time.

Our storm currently is sitting off the NJ Coast and snow will start to develop over the region in the next several hours. By the early afternoon conditions should really start deteriorating and snowfall rates can be over 1" per hour. The snow then ends by later tonight. I highly recommend to not be traveling on the roads this afternoon.

As I expected, models still differ on where exactly this snow band sets up today. There are scenarios where the NYC metro actually sees the heaviest snow and to the west sees less. We are going to have to just monitor this in real time. Exciting stuff.

When it is all said and done, I really like the idea of 4-8 inches from CNJ north per my map below. As I just mentioned, areas in NE NJ including NYC in the light blue zone have a shot to get into the 4-8 inch band based on latest trends..




Looking at the latest observations, our low is currently sitting off the NJ coast at 994mb with scattered precipitation...



The precipitation/snow will really start to fill in later this morning (any sleet changes to snow) as the upper level low currently over PA catches up to the low sitting off NJ as seen below (5am to 12pm  shown)...




Crazy enough, models still differ on where the heaviest banding sets up, ranging from western to eastern NJ. NYC even has a chance to get in on the heavy stuff if this is more east. In fact, in that scenario eastern NJ sees more snow than western NJ. Its all on the table today!

I currently favor the evolution of the European model for today. Below is from 7am today to 1am tomorrow. Notice where the heavy band sets up. Also notice the big band in eastern New England at the end of the storm. That will be interesting...



In terms of snowfall rates, the best tool I have is the rapid refresh short range model that shows rates can hit over 1" per hour in some spots by early afternoon...




Stay tuned, I will have updates on Twitter and at 12 pm update on the blog. 

Sunday, December 1, 2019

Sunday 7pm Update: Need to Up Totals, Roads No Good Tomorrow Afternoon

Good evening,  We have some changes I needed to make to the forecast due to modeling becoming more consistent in developing a very heavy band of snow across most of the forecast area by Monday afternoon. Do not be fooled if things look fine in the morning with temperatures above freezing and clean roads. This storm will start to get going by mid morning and really get nasty by early afternoon. This means roads will be a disaster by tomorrow afternoon. I have big concerns about this. 

Again timing is mid morning tomorrow into early Tuesday morning with the peak tomorrow afternoon into the evening. For Eastern New England the storm will wind up by tomorrow night. Heavy snow tonight across interior New England. 

I will have a very early morning update around 630 am in case there are any last min changes. 

Here is my brief video update below which also includes my updated snowfall forecast: