Tuesday, August 26, 2014

Factors to Monitor Heading into Winter

Video below discusses my first thoughts on the Winter of 2015. My official detailed forecast with graphics will come out in late Oct or Early November, but for now I discuss the factors I am monitoring and their implications. It will be interesting to see how things look once we get to mid fall. 




Friday, August 22, 2014

Im Back: Friday Morning Update

Finally back and have some time to make a quick post. Overall I will be putting most of my time into my post Monday Night when I will release my first thoughts on Winter. This will not be an official winter forecast since it really is too early to make that call. Instead, I will show how all the factors are currently lining up and give some prespective on the type of winters they have resulted in historically. It will be interesting to see how these variables change based on history because after all the weather patterns never work in a linear fashion. Def something to log in and take a look at Monday night.

Moving on to this weekend, some unsettled weather enters our area today into Sat morning..



Expect occasional showers and this unsettled weather will end by later in the day on Sat. Sunday looks beautiful right now as high pressure builds in the area..


In fact as we enter Monday and Tuesday temps might warm up a little as a ridge builds..


You will begin to hear alot of hype about a developing hurricane in the tropical Atlantic. This is something I have been monitoring for a few days now and honestly its too early to say where this storm will go. Tracks by the models range from Florida, the east coast, and out to sea. Right now I am leaning towards a curve out to sea track. 

Here are the model spreads...


Stay tuned this weekend, if there are any major developments I will make a post. Otherwise, look forward to that post on Winter coming Monday night.


Friday, August 8, 2014

On Vacation for A Week

Away for the next 10 days, but we will see more of the same with the weather. Cooler than normal conditions and showers from time to time over this time period. The frequency of posting will really start to increase as we approach the fall. That's when the jet stream starts to strengthen and we have more active weather to talk about including the heart of hurricane season.  

I will also towards the end of this month discuss the factors that will determine how this winter will pan out. I will release the official winter forecast in the fall but I will discuss some preliminary thoughts when I return. Stay tuned..

Wednesday, July 30, 2014

Beautiful Weather This Week

Not much to add, that powerful trough resulting in beautiful weather for this week. Aug looks to be more of the same with our upper air setup.. This will result in very limited episodes of heat.  I am releasing my preliminary winter 2015 forecast towards the middle of Aug! 

Tuesday, July 22, 2014

Tuesday Weather Update: Upcoming Heat is Short Lived

As the story of the summer goes any heat spells we get are short lived and followed by unsettled weather. This is due again to our upper air setup which includes a ridge out west and a stubborn trough that wants to hold over the east. Alot of this is due to the temperature profiles of the northeast pacific ocean which is causing the jet-stream to dip over our area. 

Until then we will witness a warm up middle of this week with temps going into the high 80's for most spots...

The heat then breaks towards the end of the week as unsettled weather enters our area Wed night. Not a washout but def some showers and a storm possible..


The weekend looks decent with high pressure mostly in control. This will change as we approach monday however as that trough I mentioned makes a return as seen below by the deep blue colors..

This will bring with it very unsettled weather for the start of the week as low pressure develops along the coast..



I expect this pattern to keep repeating for the rest of the month through the end of summer. Quite simply, the drivers behind the pattern are staying in place. We will not have to keep focus on the upcoming peak of hurricane season as we approach closer to Sept. 

Tuesday, July 15, 2014

Tuesday Weather Update: More Storms Coming Our Way

More of the same today as a powerful cold front approaches our region sparking more heavy showers and possibly severe thunderstorms. This is all due to a unseasonably cool air mass approaching the eastern third of the country. I talked about last week how its like a winter pattern in the middle of July. Take a look..


Very deep trough over the eastern third of the nation and that will cause temperatures in some places to drop to up to 25 degrees below normal for the central states. We will cool down the middle of this week into the 70's and low temps in the low 50's as a result of this front.

For today storms will start to fire up by this afternoon, I included an image of the simulated radar for 4pm today..



There is enough instability in the atmosphere that some of these storms can be severe with high winds and frequent lightning.

This all is clear by the end of the week and we have a nice weekend ahead..


Temps will warm up again over the next few weeks as they normally do in the summer, however any shots of heat will be short lived. We are locked into a stormy pattern for the foreseeable future and into Aug. All the result of our upper air set up.


Tuesday, July 8, 2014

Mid-Week Pattern Update: Cooler and Stormy Next Week

Big summer cool down next week for the Nations mid-section towards the east coast. This will bring unsettled weather into our region. Details in the video below along with some Winter thoughts...