Good morning. Winter is underway! Temperatures this morning are sitting in the low 30's with a nice winter chill in the air.
- A large storm system may develop this weekend (Sat into Sun)
- The storm would feature rain for folks within 50 miles of the coast and accumulating snow across interior New England
- The storm all comes down to if the northern and southern jet streams interact
- Many models show this, some do not
- If they do not interact this will be a weak storm system
- If everything came together perfectly, there is the chance rain could change to accumulating snow across areas like NW NJ, NE PA and southern New England late Saturday
I have been discussing, an active period of weather that is coming down the pipeline and it looks like we will have our first winter season storm system to deal with this weekend. As usual, not all the details are clear and a lot can change but the focus appears to be the interior Northeast for any winter precipitation. For areas within 50 miles of immediate coast, this will likely be rain with the chance at some flakes to fly at the end.
Lets take a look:
As we approach the weekend, two pieces of energy, one from the northern jet stream and one from the southern jet stream will approach the area...
Due to some blocking over Greenland (not perfect position but its there), there is a chance these two pieces of energy can combine to form a decent storm over the northeastern united states...
This increases the chances the energy combines as the Canadian model shows, forming a storm at the surface...
As you can see this model is showing quite a robust snowstorm for the interior with rain on the coast. I am showing the Canadian model today because I think it is handling the pattern the best. The European model is similar.
The American model however does not interact the energy the same and has a weaker storm...
I do not think this is correct but time will tell. The American model tends to speed up the northern jet stream too much in projections.
If things come together perfectly, there is a chance that rain can change to snow in areas like NE PA, NW NJ, and parts of New England near the coasts...
We will have to really see about this. It certainly can happen but again we need perfect interaction of the jet streams and placement of the storm. If it did happen several inches of snow could call across higher elevations of NW NJ NE PA and parts of southern NE at the end of the storm.
I like this band as a general idea of who sees the accumulating snow from this system...
Stay tuned. More to come.