Saturday, November 17, 2018

Saturday: Throwback to Thursday's Storm

Footage I never posted. Enjoy.  More to come on the upcoming pattern into Thanksgiving Monday morning. Its going to be a cold one! 


Thursday, November 15, 2018

Evening Update: Well That Didn't Go As Expected

What a day it was. For November 15th, I never would of expected what just unfolded. Usually with these early season storms the warm air does win but today felt like mid-January! The cold air in the mid levels of the atmosphere held on much longer than modeled and resulted in a moderate thump of snow for the region at the worst possible time of the day. The roads are a compete disaster. The quick transition to sleet I expected never occurred until hours later (happening now). As the clock approaches 7pm, snow is winding down for most of CNJ and transitioning to sleet and freezing rain. This process will now advance more north as we get through the night. For our friends in New England, they still have hours of snow ahead.

Animation below shows how the trend of models fliped to colder in the mid atmosphere notice last 2 frames the batch of blue taking over. Big correction with massive forecast implications.


So it appears most of the region from the NW suburbs of Phili to CNJ and NNJ got anywhere from 3 to 8 inches of snow so far! I have around 6.5-7" in my backyard in Morristown NJ (northern NJ).

This was much more than what my forecast was. It kills me to kick off the season with a big L but if my Winter Forecast pans out, there will be many more events to rack up the points on. 

So here is what the current radar looks like over the area...



You can now see the rain to the south and the mixing making its way north.

Our friends in New England have a while to go and will see several inches pile up overnight.

As I mentioned I am amazed with this cold air mass, check out the current temps...



These will actually warm later tonight as that warm air from the south finally wins out.

However, as the upper level low passes tomorrow morning we can see one more burst of winter precipitation around daybreak in areas to the north and west...



In the wake of this storm system things calm down but stay generally cold. There is a chance this snow sticks around for Thanksgiving this year for some areas.

As we approach December the weather pattern screams winter with high pressure over the top and storminess underneigh..


We got a long stretch ahead folks! Buckle up.

1230pm Update: Hunker Down, Snow Incoming

 Video Update: This storm is packing a punch, stay safe out there...





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Quick update. I hate to do it but I need to update my forecast and adjust amounts higher. This is due to current observations of very heavy snowfall rapidly spreading north. The warm air aloft is not spreading over the region as fast as I originally thought. This means longer period of snow before sleet.

New Map..


Wall of snow rapidly approaching. Its time to start heading home...


Sleet line is still way south...


Surface temps are cold still which mean bad roads...



Expect 4 to 5 hrs of impressive snowfall rates.


Next update in a few hours. 

Morning Update: Everything is On Track

Good morning. Looking at all the updated data and observations this morning, my forecast is on track...


It is COLD out there this morning so despite the fact the snow will quickly change to sleet for most this afternoon (light blue and pink zones) there will be impacts.

Expect a front end thump of snow this afternoon. All indicators are it comes in hard and fast with high snowfall rates for a few hours. This means roads can really deteriorate quickly for some areas. Even after sleet changeover the surface still stays freezing. Bottom Line: not a good time to travel later this afternoon.

I took my pink zone and split it in half to turn the old 1-4 inches into two zones of 1-3 and 2-4. The impacts will be mainly from early this afternoon through this evening. So not a good evening commute today. Areas in interior PA into New England stay all snow. Someone will see 8"+ out there.

Current radar shows the storm approaching...



It is currently very cold out there...




The short range HRRR models does a good job showing how the storm evolves with the ice making its way in after a few hours of snow...



A concern of mine is how hard it may snow before this changes over. The short range guidance also shows snowfall rate of up to 2" per hours by middle of this afternoon..

This would be a disaster for the evening commute.

Buckle up! Winter is here and things will not be warming up too much through Thanksgiving.

Update later when storm is underway.

Wednesday, November 14, 2018

7pm Update: Winter Storm Tomorrow Brings More Sleet than Snow

Good evening. The video below is my latest breakdown on exactly what to expect tomorrow. I am not changing my forecast map issued this morning. Expect a quick thump of snow quickly changing to sleet in the pink zone. Timing for NNJ is early afternoon into evening. I am not in the camp of the snowfall forecasts that are calling for 5-8 inches. I explain why in my video.

More to come tomorrow.  P.S. there could be a back end band of snow Friday morning as the storm exits. I did not mention this in the video.




**Below is the tweaked forecast as of 830pm. I wanted to be more specific for the old 1-4" pink zone.**



Wednesday Morning: Updated Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. I have made a few tweaks to my original map posted yesterday morning. We will have our first winter event of the season tomorrow. Granted, this will not be a winter event for the whole duration. Regardless, it will have enough impacts to remind people the season has changed!

I will have another update tonight. 

Summary:


  • Mixed bag winter storm to impact region tomorrow
  • Timing
    • Mid morning Thursday to Friday morning
    • Winter precip changes over to rain by Thursday evening for most
    • 3-5 hr window of winter impacts
  • Snow breaks out for most areas ex southern green zone Thursday morning and then will change to sleet then plain rain by Thursday evening
    • A few inches can pile up before the changeover (1-4) in the pink zone
    • Areas on western side of pink zone favored for higher end of the 1-4 range
  • Given the cold surface temps I do expect road impacts for many areas in pink zone*
  • Blue zone sees a general 4-8 inches with some mixing.
  • There is a chance we see a final burst of snow again as the storm exits Friday morning.
Updated Map:


Storm evolution:

Been a tricky forecast but overall my ideas yesterday are on track. You'll notice I made a few tweaks to the map but nothing major.

Very cold air ahead of this storm at the surface tomorrow morning (click to make bigger)...

This means as our storm approaches there will be no issue with snow sticking...

The mid levels of the atmosphere warm tho causing snow to change to sleet then freezing rain then rain after a few hours...

I think we get a few hours of accumulating snow before this happens. Given the surface temps and the amount of moisture we will pick up the 1-4 inches in a short window.

Then we have several hours of ice to rain...

Then as the storm departs Friday morning we can get a surprise burst of snow as the upper level low moves over our area. Models are having a hard time seeing this but it can happen...


In the wake of this storm very cold air moves in for the weekend into Thanksgiving week. Things just aren't going to let up this year if my winter forecast ideas are correct. 

Winter then really starts as we get to the tail end of Nov. 

Stay tuned for tonight's update. 


Tuesday, November 13, 2018

Tuesday Evening Update: Snow Will Fall Thursday

Video below breaks down my updated thoughts. Updated forecast map out tomorrow morning. Overall I will be adjusting this mornings map to show more accumulating snow throughout NNJ and southern New England. A general 1-3 or maybe even 2-4 inches with higher amounts to the NW can be expected Thursday morning into early afternoon before a changeover to ice and rain. There now will appear to be some travel impacts Thursday mid morning into the afternoon with this anyone north of I-78.