Tuesday, July 17, 2018

Weekly Weather Update: Storms Tonight Break Humidity, Nice Weather to Follow

Good morning. We are currently under an intense humidity regime across the region. It is downright sticky and miserable out.  This high moisture content in the air will aid in producing very heavy downpours later this afternoon as a cold front finally crosses the area. Some of these storms also can be severe..


This will cross through by later tonight. In its wake we then will have a stretch of beautiful weather through Saturday as high pressure build in and humidity values drop as seen by dew points below...

Expect temperatures in the low to mid 80s with a very comfortable summer feel to the air.

Things can get unsettled again on Sunday as tropical moisture approaches from the south...


There will be potential for some more widespread rain but we need to see how this evolves over the next few days.

Looking at the long range, it now appears the rest of July into Aug will be on the cooler side of things. Long term models along with other climate signals I look at such as the MJO indicate a trough over the east in the long range...

It will still feel like summer, we just should not see any heatwaves in a pattern like this. To me thats good news!

Thats all for now. As we enter August I will start to comment on the winter season. It may still be early but we can still start to discuss factors!

Tuesday, July 10, 2018

Weekly Weather Update: Normal Summer Week

Good morning. Not anything too exciting to discuss for this week. We will see some warmer temperatures today (Tuesday) followed by a little bit of a cool down as we head towards the weekend. Offshore, a tropical system will be out in the Atlantic.

Highs today will be in the upper 80's to low 90s. A weak cold front then moves into the area tonight..

Expect a few scattered showers and storms but nothing too widespread.

Things then stay mostly sunny with temperatures in the low to mid 80's through the weekend as high pressure maintains control of the region. There is a shot at another frontal passage later on Saturday that can bring a little unsettled weather but nothing too widespread expected at this time.

Out in the Atlantic, we have a tropical system that will stay out to sea. Nothing major here but it is worth noting..


Thats all for now, enjoy the week.

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Tuesday 4th of July Outlook: More Brutal Heat, Awesome Weekend

Good morning. As we all sizzle in the brutal heat this week, the natural question is how much longer does this heat last?

Well, we got a few more days to go guys with relief finally coming this weekend as a strong cold front will approach.

Today (Tuesday) will be another very hot and humid day with temperatures in the mid to upper 90's and heat index over 100. A very weak cold front will move into the area this afternoon which will cause some storms to pop up...

I do not expect anything severe, just a few heavy downpours possible due to the high moisture in the air.

As we enter the 4th the heat does not break as this stubborn impressive upper level ridge of high pressure lingers over the area....

The temperatures should peak early this week but we are only talking a few degrees less for Wednesday and Thursday so still very hot (90s) and no many chances at any rain/storms.

The relief finally comes starting Friday as a stronger cold front will move in with showers and storms ahead of it Friday morning...

Temperatures will break and highs will be in the mid 80s which will be welcomed.

We then hit a gorgeous weekend as humidity crashes and an upper level trough sits near our area bringing with it cool summer weather...

Temperatures will be in the high 70's to mid 80's with low humidity. Just picture perfect for 4th of July weekend! Notice how our big ridge that caused the warm weather is pulled back to the west.


So there you go. If we can survive the next few days of heat, we will be rewarded with a perfect weekend.


Happy 4th!

Monday, June 25, 2018

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: A Nice Week Ahead, Major Heat to Follow

Good morning. It looks like we will have a nice week of summer weather on tap with moderate temperatures and mostly clear conditions.

The only shot for rain appears to be some showers and storms Wednesday night and Thursday as a frontal system will be moving through the area...


As we enter the weekend the headline will the heat. Starting Saturday, a larger upper level ridge starts to form over the area...

This ridge continues to build into early next week..


Now this has the chance to be record breaking. There are some crazy model projections out there right now for how hot it can get early next week..


Keep in mind  this can be overdone. Regardless, you can see triple digit heat is possible next week through the 4th of July.

I will have  a follow up post on this later this week.

Friday, June 22, 2018

Weekend Update: Some Unsettled Weather

Good morning. It looks like we will now how to deal with some rain Saturday as a storm system moves through the area. I am unable to upload pictures this morning due to website issues but here is what to expect.

Showers will move into tomorrow morning with mostly cloudy skies. By the afternoon the sun can poke out a little but there will still be the threat for showers and storms as we enter the evening hours.  Temperatures will stay in the 70's.

On Sunday another upper level disturbance can cause some more showers and storms but I expect a little more sunshine with warmer temperatures in the 80s.

So overall not the worst weekend but we definitely will have some rain to deal with.  Saturday afternoon can be ok in spots with Sunday the better day overall.


Tuesday, June 19, 2018

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: Heat Breaks

Good morning. Yesterday (Monday) was the hottest day of the year for many and the humidity really cranked up too. I think it reminded us all to be careful what we wish for. It may have been a cooler spring but once that humidity cranks up it isn't so pleasant.

Today will feature temperatures in the mid to upper 80's but relief comes in later as a cold front enters the area taking the humidity out of the air as seen by the lower dew points...

By Wednesday and Thursday temperatures will drop to lower 80's and things will become quite pleasant. 

There is the shot that a disturbance moves along a frontal boundary Wednesday night into possibly Thursday morning causing some showers and storms...

A cool Canadian high pressure system then moves in Friday and will result in a very pleasant and cooler weekend. Expect temperatures in the upper 70's Friday and lower 70's Saturday....

We then may see another system effect the area Sunday morning with some showers, but things do look to clear for Sunday afternoon...

From here we then should enter a typical summer pattern with a mix of warmer than normal and average temperature days. 

Enjoy the week.

Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Tuesday Weekly Weather Summary: Calm and Pleasant

Good morning. Not much to say for this week. Temperatures have been on the tame side all spring/early summer and that will continue next several days.

The only chance for some showers at this time is Wednesday afternoon as a weak front moves into the area...


High pressure then returns to the region for the weekend...

This means pleasant temperatures in the high 70s to low 80s with very little humidity.

Some heat will try to build by early next week as a ridge moves into the area...

However, as the theme has been going all season this does not look to last and cooler air returns for the end of next week and beyond. You can see this by a ridge of HP over the west and trough of low pressure/cooler air in the east...

Considering I hate hot and humid weather I am not complaining.  So far I have not used my AC all summer. Lets see how long the streak continues.