Friday, September 23, 2016

Weekend Weather Outlook: First Fall Cold Shot on Tap

Welcome to autumn! This is always a fun time of year due to the changing state of the atmosphere and when we begin to speculate on what winter will have in store. As I have mentioned my Winter Outlook will be out mid October.

Now lets get to the weekend. Today will be an unseasonably warm day with humid conditions and temperature in the high 80s! However, relief comes quickly tonight as a cold front crosses our area. 

Winds will shift and blow in from the north. This will bring dry cool air for Saturday and Sunday. Expect high temperatures in the low 70's on Saturday and the mid to high 60's on Sunday. Low temperautres at night will range from the mid 40's inland to low 50's near the city.

The image below shows the inflow of cold air Sunday morning..


Check out these lows Sunday morning, especially up in New England..


Like I said, a nice healthy shot of fall air.  

As we head through next week and into early October I still do not see any of this cool air sustaining itself. Things will gradually warm up next week and models have been indicating a warmer than normal start to October. You can see the pattern that would cause that below. Trough in the west and ridge of high pressure in the east..


Lets hope that doesn't end up being the winter pattern!


Monday, September 19, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Rain Ends This Morning, Calm for Rest of the Week

Good morning everyone. The steady rain came in last night and will end this morning. You can see the simulated radar projecting the back end moves through a few hours from now..



Once this front clears the weather becomes calm for the rest of the week with high pressure in control. Expect high temperatures in the low 80's with mostly sunny skies. The air is beginning to feel like fall and I am sure all of us are welcoming it. 

As we head into the next two weeks expect mostly seasonable conditions. I do not see any major autumn cold shots on the horizon at this time. 

The data has begun to get compiled for my winter outlook. As usual I will take a look at a lot of different factors in our current atmosphere, compare them to historical years where we saw similar conditions, and look for verification in the long range models. I will be honest, I really am not sure the direction I am going to go for the Mid-Atlantic at this time (more confident in New England and Mid West). I need to wait a few more weeks. Expect the outlook around mid October. 

Friday, September 16, 2016

Weekend Update: Heating Up Tomorrow, Rain Sunday

Quick weekend update. Tomorrow will feature temperatures in the upper 70's with higher humidity values ahead of an approaching cold front that will effect the area on Sunday. 

Mostly sunny skies on Saturday give way to clouds and rounds of showers on Sunday as the front approaches..


Expect on and off rain all day. Front clears out by Monday morning giving way to partly sunny skies and temperas back in the high 70's with lower humidity. 


Winter is coming and so is the outlook. I am begging to compile data and will have out out by mid October!

More on Monday, enjoy the weekend. 

Monday, September 12, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Waves of Fall

Good morning. We have a nice fall chill in the air this morning and it is very welcoming given the heat we have had in recent days. Temperatures around the state currently sit in 50's. So will this last? Yes and no. Each week that goes by it will be harder and harder to have sustained hot and humid temperatures. However, we are going to keep seeing a back and forth between warmer than normal and seasonal conditions over the next few weeks.

For this week, temperatures will hover in the low 80's today and Tuesday and make their way into the mid to upper 80's Wednesday. Releif then comes back in again Thursday as another cold front sweeps through..

The winds will shift and flow in from the northwest. This will bring temps back down into the low to mid 70's on Thursday and Friday! Highs at night will be in the low 50's for many spots. There will also not be much rain expected just maybe a few showers as this front passes Wednesday night.

For the weekend, things look to stay tame with temperatures in the high 70's maybe touching 80. We might see some scattered thunderstorm activity on Sunday as another front approaches. 

That iis all for now. On another note, I have started to work on  my Winter Outlook 2017. That will be released in middle October. Stay tuned!

Wednesday, September 7, 2016

Wednesday Weather Outlook: Turning Up The Heat (Again)

Good morning. Short post today as there really isn't too much to talk about. The main story over next few days will be the heat returning. Yes it might be September, but that does not mean temperatures can not get into the 90's and they will in many places.

Before we get to that, check out our old friend Hermine...

It might be in a weakened state, but this thing actually still has a circulation center (no more impacts). What a forecasting nightmare that was!

Moving on to the heat, the heat begins to build today and lasts through Saturday. Expect temperatures in the low 90s for many spots. Below you can see the warm air rising up from the south as indicated by the red colors..

There is some relief in sight however. Notice that blue area diving into the Midwest. That will swing through our area on Sunday breaking the heatwave. 

Looking at the long range, it does not appear we will see any sustained cool downs over next few weeks. This means the feel of summer will not go away yet. I wouldn't be surprised to even see a few more days in the 90s before its all said and done.

Monday, September 5, 2016

Labor Day Storm Update: Hermine Still Throwing a Few Curves

Quick video below gives latest update on Hermine. Storm will not have impacts as originally thought but has trended back west enough on the models last 24hrs to have some impacts on beaches. Main concern is beach erosion from the rough surf.




Sunday, September 4, 2016

Sunday Morning Update: Storm Is Not On Track!

Good morning. Big news this morning and that news is that this storm will stay more east than previously projected by every major weather model. What does this mean? Well for one it means I was WRONG and two it means that the only impacts that will be witnessed is high surf at the beaches. There will still be beach erosion and some gusty winds but the rain and real heavy rain are for the fishes. This is great news for the Jersey shore and it also  shows you how even in the year 2016 our handle on mother nature is not ultimate. Regardless of how many supercomputers or complex algorithms we may have, the weather will always be a massively complex set of moving variables that are hard to tame.

I will say, this storm still may have a few tricks up its sleeve so I will keep a close on on this today and see if by tonight we can put the final nail in the coffin. Expect a quick note tonight.

The goal of this blog always was to provide a perspective and also take a stance on making a forecast. Its always a fine line between jumping the gun too early and waiting too late where I am just now casting. In this case, the evidence and observations we had to work with overwhelmingly where enough to cause concern. The curve ball came last night with all major guidance shifting east. 

Regardless, this all doesn't change the fact I was incorrect in my assessment of this situation. If I had to do it over again though, I do not know if I would have waited and held back. We saw how impressive Hermine was and the real potential this had to cause havoc along the immediate coast line. The weather outlets picked up on this big time yesterday.  Maybe next time I will go into more depth on what would have to change for the storm to not unfold.

So we move on now to evaluate and see what the rest of hurricane season has in store. Signs are that it will stay active. We also will start looking towards Winter 2017! I am releasing my outlook around October 15th this year. I hope everyone is looking forward to that. Lets hope that if we do see any big storms that I am able to guide everyone in the right direction and make more of an accurate assessment in advance!

Oh wait I forgot, the updated forecast map...



Joking aside, there still will be very high surf, some gusty winds and the beaches still will see some erosion. 


<<<<<<<<<

So what went wrong?



Despite the fact we had powerful high pressure in place to block this storm, the dynamics behind an approaching low pressure system at 18k feet in the atmosphere did not unfold. What I mean by this is that the upper level low was not as strong as modeled and as a result did not have the impact of capturing this storm in time and pulling it back to the coast. Instead, it just will slow the storm down a little but not have the power to turn it back east enough.

The result will be a storm that sit more offshore for a few days...



Still very close for comfort. Those are tropical storm force winds just offshore but it does look like this will not back east enough to cause the disaster scenario. Just very high surf and battered beaches. 

Thats all for now, thanks for following this week guys.