tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post8574933012670869185..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Preliminary Forecast for Thursday's StormWeather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-69342841987406002252015-03-04T09:20:13.499-05:002015-03-04T09:20:13.499-05:00CORRECTION -- not much high pressure to the north ...CORRECTION -- not much high pressure to the north and EAST. Like, Atlantic Ocean, Greenland. Sorry. Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-7190693740118552832015-03-04T09:14:22.550-05:002015-03-04T09:14:22.550-05:00More Wed AM weather-SWAG !! The playbook is more-o...More Wed AM weather-SWAG !! The playbook is more-or-less set I gather, but total precip and types are still at issue. Doesn't look like an unanticipated northward bounce is in the cards (as I mumbled about yesterday), that is soooooo last month! But still, generally a pretty + NAO, and not much high pressure to the north and west. 06Z GFS call is for fast zonal flows with the storm further south-east than NAM and CMC (and Euro, presumably). Change to snow happens just after midnight, like the other runs, but mostly winds-up by 8 am, leaving snow totals closer to 3 inches than 8 inches. Other models seem a bit slower and more north-west, with snow continuing well into Thurs afternoon. So, will be interesting to see if GFS sticks by its guns here, and if so, does it repeat Jan 27? Or does it go back to being OK but still-not-quite-ready-for-prime-time. Shovel remains in hand. And whatever we get, shovel it quick, as all models agree on another dip below 10 degrees by early Friday AM! A really interesting winter storm season! Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-69146472344230087352015-03-03T09:44:06.996-05:002015-03-03T09:44:06.996-05:00Agreed, this will be a tricky forecast which is wh...Agreed, this will be a tricky forecast which is why I tried to make a map that anticipates where this storm is going, not where models currently show it. I think by tonight we get a good picture of what will happen here. I do not support a S Jersey big snow event. I think C NJ is right on edge and it going into CT and maybe southern Mass then sharp cutoff. We will see!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-7413194849948833142015-03-03T09:35:44.697-05:002015-03-03T09:35:44.697-05:00Hmmm, my .02 FWIW -- still looks like a tricky set...Hmmm, my .02 FWIW -- still looks like a tricky set-up. NAM appears to have been quite variable over the past 24 hours, went north with more rain for a while, now (06Z Wed) seems south and 8 or more inches of snow. NAO forecasts today are divergent -- one looks for a higher/stronger + on Thursday, another looks for weaker/lower + reading. Lots of low pressure to the N and NE. An 8 inch snow scenario for Morris/Essex counties seems possible, but the 3 inch very wet (or ICE STORM) theory may also still be within reason, if a stronger ocean heat ridge deflects the jet-propelled cold air/precip down into the low pressure valleys up north, a bit quicker and a bit further north than anticipated. Just saying, even at 36-48 hours out, there might still be a fairly high level of uncertainty here and a fairly wide range of possibilities. But again, just my rough-cut SWAG, I'm no expert on this; just an interested by-stander getting ready for whatever! Snow shovel in hand. Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com