tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post7801454655441520288..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Wednesday Morning Storm Update: Back on TrackWeather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-53436302568313843392016-01-20T15:48:01.312-05:002016-01-20T15:48:01.312-05:00To be fair, a lot of meteorologists got that one w...To be fair, a lot of meteorologists got that one wrong. If one traveled east of NYC there were places on Long Island that got 20-30 inches, it just barely missed the city. A shift of a few miles would have resulted in accumulations in Manhattan being significantly larger (in the 20-30 range vs 11 inches).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-3330504307200377302016-01-20T15:42:19.706-05:002016-01-20T15:42:19.706-05:0010 to 14 are based on my analysis of storm strengt...10 to 14 are based on my analysis of storm strength and precip amounts. These storms always will waver up until the 11th hour. I like the forecast as of now and will have the final one oit tomorrow. Thanks for reading <br />Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-46563379222343881332016-01-20T15:39:51.763-05:002016-01-20T15:39:51.763-05:00I rather make an actual forecast then change a for...I rather make an actual forecast then change a forecast 10 times like other places do. This is my preliminary prediction and the final one comes out tomorrow. On track so far. Can't be afraid to be wrong.Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-72607669287782551432016-01-20T14:33:55.222-05:002016-01-20T14:33:55.222-05:00Accu-weather and the weather channel are both call...Accu-weather and the weather channel are both calling for 8-12. Where is the 14 to 20 coming from? After looking at the map there is a concentrated region of 12+ but its located in the DC area. Any specific reason to think that this will shift up north?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-23725313364015044892016-01-20T13:29:12.734-05:002016-01-20T13:29:12.734-05:00Not to put too fine a point on it, but your reputa...Not to put too fine a point on it, but your reputation is at stake here after last year's "snowmaggedon" dusting. Also, I see that you've introduced the Canadian model as a potential scapegoat ;-)Snowskeptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06699017065813352063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-28378358433100086082016-01-20T08:51:58.849-05:002016-01-20T08:51:58.849-05:00Ah Willy, doubling down on the map. So last nite&...Ah Willy, doubling down on the map. So last nite's Euro did another jog. The 0Z storm stays near the 40-70 and dumps a lot of precip over us, as the GFS and CMC anticipate. But that northern high that's supposed to pump down all that cold air is now pretty far out ahead of the storm in the set up. Other modeling seems to have the NAO and AO back near neutral or slightly positive on the weekend. So, not sure how much cold air that Canadian high is going to pump south, or for how long. Quite a big rolling ridge from the southwest to keep the storm moving. This one is still a horse race. GEFS 0Z ensembles are still about 50% big snow, 50% littler snow for NJ inside 287. Euro 0Z ensembles gave us about 50-50 odds of going over 6 inches. So AFAIAC, the mean estimate is 6-8 inches right now for east of 287. Sleet phases are possible. NWS discussion saying roughly the same right now. OK then, for those of us who can't afford WB, back to Ryan M's Twitter feed, searching for some choice Euro 12Z leavings dropping from the weather model banquet table! Good luck on this horse race, Willy. We shall see what really happens at the finish line this weekend! Jim G Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com