tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post6366295264528107030..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Winter Knocking on Our DoorWeather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-66476080862487432992016-10-26T15:55:43.545-04:002016-10-26T15:55:43.545-04:00Took a look at one of Cohen's articles on the ...Took a look at one of Cohen's articles on the Noaa site. He makes the point that sudden strat warmings are part of the process thru which an expanded EurAsian snow field influences the AO. Last year had a rapid and extensive autumn expansion of the snowfield, but the Nino generally kept things mild here in the east. But OK, I'll give Cohen his due -- we did have a few big SSW event in January and February, and they were pretty significant if temporary -- I don't remember ever trying to start my 10 year old Corolla at minus 5 before! Not what I expected during a Nino winter. If there is a gangbusters expansion of the snowfield going on right now and Cohen is right, then we might expect to see some SSW stuff happening soon -- which you mentioned the other day. I'll be keeping an eye on those 30/10/5m polar temps (and just a few weeks ago, we were tracking hurricanes . . . ). Jim G<br /><br />oh, if your site allows -- here's a URL for the article for those interested:<br />http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ost/climate/STIP/FY11CTBSeminars/jcohen_062211.pdfAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-15270205107599395172016-10-25T20:38:08.550-04:002016-10-25T20:38:08.550-04:00I'm not a meteorologist but I just skimmed thr...I'm not a meteorologist but I just skimmed through some historical data and the link between the extent of Siberian snow cover and winter temperatures seems reasonably strong. The only years that it seems to not work is during strong El nino years (2016 and 1973). Of course, there haven't been too many years with snow cover as high as it has been this year and the past 3 years. I also haven't examined the rate of growth, only the monthly snow cover. Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-11375196492316256392016-10-25T08:04:44.179-04:002016-10-25T08:04:44.179-04:00Yeah, some dispute it but their track record is ve...Yeah, some dispute it but their track record is very decent and if you read the research papers Dr. Cohen has put out over the years there is some very compelling data in there. As with anything else, the weather is always the sum of many factors. If we have one dominating factor it can over power the influence of others. Last years killer Nino is an example of that. However, this year with a neutral to weak la nina that snow cover theory might hold more influence. The QBO is not helping BUT again that is only one of many other factors that look to make this season promising. <br /><br />Also Jim, not a bad idea to do a winter outlook update. Maybe when December rolls around we can see how the models and observations look. At least we will know if things are on track. If you havent seen, the new Euro Weeklies came out last night and all signs point to a very active and cooler November in the east. This could be great news for Ski Areas especially since the PV weakening is also happening which maybe the models are picking up on. We shall see!Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-22458983461125430312016-10-25T07:43:11.055-04:002016-10-25T07:43:11.055-04:00I check aer.com too. AER is affiliated with Dr. J...I check aer.com too. AER is affiliated with Dr. Judah Cohen, the fellow who promotes the idea that snow extent in northern EurAsia during the autumn season strongly correlates with AO / polar vortex dynamics throughout the winter season. From what I've read, this idea is well respected in the meteorology field, but there are also some in the field who disagree as to just how strong and relevant the correlation is, or what its effects are south of the Arctic Circle. FYI, Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-80175119715261257692016-10-24T19:10:00.268-04:002016-10-24T19:10:00.268-04:00Thanks, I will make sure I keep you guys in the lo...Thanks, I will make sure I keep you guys in the loop in that neck of the woods this winter. You guys are due! And that is a very good site, one of the better ones out there. Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-79352114951189498122016-10-24T12:39:12.068-04:002016-10-24T12:39:12.068-04:00Hi W.W, I like what your forecast is indicating ab...Hi W.W, I like what your forecast is indicating about the SSW and the displacement of the Polar Vortex. I also visit this site for a more detailed look at the global atmospheric forecast and Polar Vortex predictions (https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation). I hope that the Elmira/ Corning/ Binghamton areas (aka Central Southern Tier) of NY gets an old-fashioned winter-big and frequent snowstorms this year, which we have not seen in ions.BearCubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15520172456880871522noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-28148246486992762172016-10-24T12:37:10.921-04:002016-10-24T12:37:10.921-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.BearCubhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15520172456880871522noreply@blogger.com