tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post6358152333312596595..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Thursday Night Update: The Final ForecastWeather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger7125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-43303687890825515792016-01-22T02:41:57.361-05:002016-01-22T02:41:57.361-05:00Very nice job on the analysis Willy!Very nice job on the analysis Willy!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-84013443113364141462016-01-21T22:20:12.858-05:002016-01-21T22:20:12.858-05:00Thanks Larry. Yeah thats the best I can estimate r...Thanks Larry. Yeah thats the best I can estimate right now, its like splitting hairs trying to forecast N NJ. Going to be fun to see how this plays out. Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-91607696656230548382016-01-21T22:19:33.095-05:002016-01-21T22:19:33.095-05:00Haha thanks. Its gunna be close but I think that m...Haha thanks. Its gunna be close but I think that makes this more fun- some folks will be in for a surprise others will notWeather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-27211162791528695022016-01-21T22:18:25.678-05:002016-01-21T22:18:25.678-05:00That is correct Jim. Thanks. This is what makes it...That is correct Jim. Thanks. This is what makes it so much fun all this computer info and still we are down to the 11th hour. There will be many suprises, some will be upset but overall this will be a memorable just in the fact of the craziness of tracking it. The 0z nam is juiced, prob overdone but remains its north trend and is consistent. Tomorrow morning should be interesting. Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-55544973175685910582016-01-21T21:39:58.308-05:002016-01-21T21:39:58.308-05:00Ok glad to see you've tightened up the banding...Ok glad to see you've tightened up the banding and I'm starting to come around on the idea that we might get some precip of some kind, but I'm still thinking sub-6". And BTW i'm loving the oblique references to the Swede rock band Europe: "The Final Forecast" and frequent use of the word 'banding.' I had "Final Countdown" in my head as I read the blog.Snowskeptichttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06699017065813352063noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-57696522804162672092016-01-21T21:13:01.287-05:002016-01-21T21:13:01.287-05:00Hey Willy, I'm with you on the latest map. If...Hey Willy, I'm with you on the latest map. If I heard and read correctly, the 12Z Euro remained on the low side for NoNJ, and the 12Z CMC came around to a similar conclusion. But the 12Z GEFS and Canadian ensemble showed higher mean accumulations, and a look at the 18Z plumes for the GEFS shows even higher, around 10 inches now. The 18Z GFS was up a little higher too, around 8 or so, up from around 6 earlier. Pretty late in the game for all this up and down, but I appreciate the point that you have been hammering home, that just a small jog north or south in storm trak makes the difference between hours of plowing and a broom sweep. Yes, quite a snow gradient -- I've been staring at the screens all day, and that gradient ain't going away no matter which way the overall picture shifts. As you say, this one is going to be one of the hardest storms to get right; the underlying variation potential remains quite high. It's almost all over but for the shoveling and plowing. Just a few more model outputs and a few more jinks up or down, then it's go time. From what I just saw tonight from the model runs, your map is a pretty good summary of the current mean expectation. Excluding the 18Z NAM and its 30 inch scenario right up to Danbury, of course. Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-36250268482836765802016-01-21T20:05:18.606-05:002016-01-21T20:05:18.606-05:00Thanks as always buddy!!! You're awesome and ...Thanks as always buddy!!! You're awesome and you've been my trusted source for years. Damn accurate. Looks like 6-10" closers to the higher end for bridgewtaer? We seem close to the 12-18 line. Larryhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01671349662876585980noreply@blogger.com