tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post5397221795860094206..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Tuesday Morning: So What Went Wrong?Weather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-58907886889995055242015-01-27T11:38:06.930-05:002015-01-27T11:38:06.930-05:00Will do! Thank you.. It's now on to the next ...Will do! Thank you.. It's now on to the next one. Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-62892541888587061442015-01-27T11:37:31.438-05:002015-01-27T11:37:31.438-05:00Thanks I appreachiate it, a lot more fun to come ...Thanks I appreachiate it, a lot more fun to come Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-22650159956015733012015-01-27T11:36:38.533-05:002015-01-27T11:36:38.533-05:00Thank you!! Thank you!! Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-10087950610325416622015-01-27T11:35:39.118-05:002015-01-27T11:35:39.118-05:00Thanks for the comment. You made some good points...Thanks for the comment. You made some good points there. The low passed just outside of the benchmark so you are right that is why this storm was a miss. The European was actually off by 150 miles! There where warning signs all over the place that this could bust. Even the euro ensembles had an unusual spread. The GFS def wins here but I would not say it's time to crown it king.. I think euro will still reign supreme overall. <br /><br />So many small factors caused this storm to shift and many which could have been measured in fractions. Andrew at the weather Centre is very good and the typhoon rule is a good general rule for a trough to develop which is always step one for a storm. We should have a lot of action ahead so stay tuned winter is just getting started! Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-64471594165456036242015-01-27T10:36:54.220-05:002015-01-27T10:36:54.220-05:00I really appreciate your honesty and your blog. Y... I really appreciate your honesty and your blog. You're my go-to guy where weather is concerned. Even though you got<br />burned by the hype and your own desire for snow, you're willingness to admit that openly makes you head and shoulders<br />above ALL the other weather guys (on TV etc.) who are trying to cover their asses and making excuses! Last night Lonnie Quinn on Channel 2 at 11 p.m. said, "I'm standing by my snowfall predictions!" as he pointed to a clearly revised map of projected snow totals!!!! We laughed out loud. Willie, You're the best!!!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-53890579611396024252015-01-27T10:12:36.301-05:002015-01-27T10:12:36.301-05:00Oh, and the NAO didn't seem right for this eit...Oh, and the NAO didn't seem right for this either (we checked that yesterday too). Although, PNA was favorable, no big west-east push . . . But hey, the weather is still the weather, still plenty of chaos theory and butterflies flapping over Kalamazoo or wherever. Bottom line, keep on doing what you're doing, Willy; win or lose, it's great stuff !! Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-20527763248502958532015-01-27T09:48:22.106-05:002015-01-27T09:48:22.106-05:00Hi Willy, me and my friend at work have to commute...Hi Willy, me and my friend at work have to commute from the 'burbs into Newark every day, so we weren't exactly thrilled about the idea of a blizzard. Yesterday morning at the office we looked at the NAM and GFS 7am runs on the coolwx site, and saw that NAM was in synch with the gloom and doom (from our perspective as urban commuters) bombogenesis scenario. But GFS was going contrarian, bomb would hit Boston, not us. We didn't want to get our hopes up, as the NOAA/NWS forecast discussion was trashing it, outlier with bad convection analysis, whatever. <br /><br />But then the 1pm NAM started going east with the storm, and we looked at a North Atlantic weather chart. We could see the high over eastern Canada blocking the storm to the north. And also the high over the Atlantic off the coast of Newfoundland. But the forecast track showed that high moving fairly quickly to the ENE, towards the British Isles. Was that what gave the big developing low a chance to spread out to the east, ducking around the 40/70 to the right? Did we actually see an example of under-dog GFS beating champ Euromodel? Is GFS actually new and improved? <br /><br />I gather that the overall theory is still to "look at them all" (easier said than done for those of us who are just scrounging around for whatever is free online - so we really appreciate the "Willy synthesis", and we will continue to weigh your forecasts into the mix). But hey, maybe GFS has to be taken a little more seriously now. But we're just at the half-way mark, plenty of winter fun yet to come. It will be interesting to see! We share your overall enthusiasm about the weather, if not always your love of snow. <br /><br />You know, though, that guy on the Weather Centre site was talking almost two weeks ago about big storm potential in this timeframe, based on the Pacific Typhoon rule . . . hmm, another thing to add to the mix, maybe. Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-80854759781966033702015-01-27T08:55:43.469-05:002015-01-27T08:55:43.469-05:00Keep on doing what you're oing, Willie. I will...Keep on doing what you're oing, Willie. I will always check your blog for what I believe to usually be the most accurate weather forecast. Take comfort I nth fact that you were not alone In your mis-prediction. All the big guys got it wrong.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-44035254942170672682015-01-27T08:22:46.649-05:002015-01-27T08:22:46.649-05:00We are all disappointed and we know you are. I pa...We are all disappointed and we know you are. I pay close attention to your blog and appreciate your "saying it how it is". Keep it up.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com