tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post2491970514985056228..comments2024-03-27T14:00:31.961-04:00Comments on Weather Willy's Weather: Wednesday Morning Weather Update: Some Encouraging Signs DevelopingWeather Willyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-1807043239215543702015-12-10T08:23:07.102-05:002015-12-10T08:23:07.102-05:00Hey Jim,
Thats true all that snow pack is reflect...Hey Jim,<br /><br />Thats true all that snow pack is reflecting back the solar radiation into the upper atmosphere. This is supposed to contribute to stratospheric warming per Judah Cohens research. It is going to take time but I really do beleive this pattern is starting to change. We might see hints of this in about 7 days then by the time we get to January its game on. Issue I have with man made gases in particular co2 is that c02 represents only 0.04 percent of the atmosphere. The atmosphere is mostly water vapor. So I think we need to take all climate factors into account like the sun, oceans, volcanoes, and greenhouse gasses. From there maybe someone could develop an equation to figure all this out. Step one is agreeing on the actual temperature trends first tho and that debate is still raging. This nino is raging but notice where the convection is, it is def more westward which I like to see. Also, last year the pacific warm pool really just overpowered the pattern which did have an influence on the AO. This year I think that the snow cover argument along with some other research other have done such as @almarinaro suggest this year could be more favorable.<br /><br />Time will tell! I am just looking forward to watching this evolve. Thanks for reading. Weather Willyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13387468068540557329noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-3789852038134041446.post-79648294739858917752015-12-09T10:24:42.445-05:002015-12-09T10:24:42.445-05:00Hey Willy, I'm far from an expert on stratosph...Hey Willy, I'm far from an expert on stratospheric convection and advection, but it looks to me like there's a whole lot of heavy Siberian and Alaskan snowpack between that warming area and say the 75th parallel. Another interesting thing to ponder (although right now it may be more of a footnote) is that convection between the troposphere and stratosphere is at the heart of the global warming matter. Not sure that I want to totally commit on this question yet, but there is supposed ly a lot of research indicating that historical changes in the tropo including human-made gasses is reducing outward radiation over time, thus increasing heat content within the troposphere. Although, admittedly, this may be happening on a scale that affects long-term average temps but isn't immediately relevant to short and medium term weather patterns. For now, looks like the AO is due for a dip in the next week or so, but as to whether a weakened polar vortex will defeat the Nino heat and bring us another old-fashioned winter is 'up in the air', both literally and figuratively! Last year, of course, saw a strongly positive AO most of the winter -- has the dynamic behind that changed? We shall see, interesting as always. Jim GAnonymousnoreply@blogger.com