Monday: Storm Moves Through Today, Watch Dec. 7-15th for Winter Weather

 Good morning. A lot to talk about today but I will try to keep it straight forward. We have a big storm system that is currently moving through the area which will feature heavy rain and gusty winds. Things then will cool down for the rest of the week. 

We then turn our attention to what I believe will be a very active period from December 7th to the 15th. I think we got our first show at snow during this period. 

Lets take a look..

Storm moving through now featuring heavy rains for the east and eventually snow for areas like OH and western PA...

Winds will really pick up this afternoon. Below are projected wind gusts...

In the wake of this impressive storm, things then cool down for the rest of the week with seasonable temperatures.

By this weekend a weather pattern starts to develop which I believe can deliver winter weather over the following  8 to 10 day period (7th to 15th).

A disturbance will move into the region this weekend but it appears at this time that will not produce much in the form of weather. It does bear watching however.

The reason it bears watching is a pattern will be developing in the upper atmosphere that can be supportive of winter weather for the east coast. I show an animation of this below then will explain...

What you are seeing above is pressure placement at 18k feet in the atmosphere. When we see higher pressures develop over Greenland and the western United States, it increases the chances that energy can consolidate along the east cost and cold air can stay locked in. I show this below...

In English, what I am showing above are some critical factors I want to see develop to support east coast winter storms. Each one of these factors highlighted need to be aligned properly and in sync for a winter storm to develop. 

The bottom line is this, for it to snow near the big cities and even within 50 miles of the coast, we need energy to slow down and consolidate and cold air that stays locked in. The pattern I highlighted out west and over Greenland helps do this. 

The ridge of high pressure out west directs the cold air to the east. The high pressure over Greenland blocks off the jet stream so energy can slow down and consolidate over our region, and the low pressure over eastern Canada helps keep cold air locked in. 

As you can see a lot has to happen and come together for a big storm. The encouraging things for the snow lovers out there is It appears a favorable pattern is going to develop. This does not guarantee a snowstorm but it certainty increases the chances.

Again, I would be focusing on December 7th to 15th for our first winter event of the season. Lets see what happens.

More to come.