Wednesday Morning: Updated Forecast for Tomorrow

Good morning. I have made a few tweaks to my original map posted yesterday morning. We will have our first winter event of the season tomorrow. Granted, this will not be a winter event for the whole duration. Regardless, it will have enough impacts to remind people the season has changed!

I will have another update tonight. 

Summary:

• Mixed bag winter storm to impact region tomorrow
• Timing
• Mid morning Thursday to Friday morning
• Winter precip changes over to rain by Thursday evening for most
• 3-5 hr window of winter impacts
• Snow breaks out for most areas ex southern green zone Thursday morning and then will change to sleet then plain rain by Thursday evening
• A few inches can pile up before the changeover (1-4) in the pink zone
• Areas on western side of pink zone favored for higher end of the 1-4 range
• Given the cold surface temps I do expect road impacts for many areas in pink zone*
• Blue zone sees a general 4-8 inches with some mixing.
• There is a chance we see a final burst of snow again as the storm exits Friday morning.

Updated Map:

Storm evolution:

Been a tricky forecast but overall my ideas yesterday are on track. You'll notice I made a few tweaks to the map but nothing major.

Very cold air ahead of this storm at the surface tomorrow morning (click to make bigger)...

This means as our storm approaches there will be no issue with snow sticking...

The mid levels of the atmosphere warm tho causing snow to change to sleet then freezing rain then rain after a few hours...

I think we get a few hours of accumulating snow before this happens. Given the surface temps and the amount of moisture we will pick up the 1-4 inches in a short window.

Then we have several hours of ice to rain...

Then as the storm departs Friday morning we can get a surprise burst of snow as the upper level low moves over our area. Models are having a hard time seeing this but it can happen...

In the wake of this storm very cold air moves in for the weekend into Thanksgiving week. Things just aren't going to let up this year if my winter forecast ideas are correct. 

Winter then really starts as we get to the tail end of Nov. 

Stay tuned for tonight's update.