Monday Pattern Update: Colder Air Ready to Arrive, A Sign of Things to Come?

Good morning. After the intense rainfall Friday, we ended up having a beautiful fall weekend. This week will feature more of the same with a some rain but overall a pleasant temperature pattern for this time of year. It isn't until this weekend that some changes start to take hold that will put a noticeable chill in the air and the potential for even a flake to fly.

To start at a high level, cold air from Canada starts to filter in by Saturday...

As this cold air arrives, a low pressure system may spin up causing rain and interior higher elevation show Friday night into Saturday...

When this departs noticeably colder air hits region Saturday with temps in the 40's. 

We then get a potentially even more impressive reload shot of cold air by early to middle of next week...

Now this is where things can get interesting. I have been watching this period closely and the pattern has my attention. 

With this impressive shot of cold air already in place by early next week the upper level jet stream pattern also gets aggressive...

The jet stream looks to amplify out west as seen by the ridge (red) and if it happens to amplify sharp enough we can see some energy enter the trough and round the bend causing storm development by Tuesday/Wednesday next week. With that cold air in place it would mean winter precip is possible for areas away from the coastal plain. 

Models now show the energy not rounding the bend sharp enough and some offshore development...

Given that we have cold air that will be much below normal (below) this is a period that is worth watching...

At the very least, this upcoming period will remind everyone that winter is around the corner. An air mass next week like this means highs in the low to mid 40's with lows below freezing. 

 I think  a cold shot like this is a sign of things to come per my winter forecast. As November matures we will see more cold shots like this develop followed by some moderation in temps. If my ideas are correct the moderation periods will be shorter lived than the cold periods as we enter winter. It is no secrete now that I am expecting a cold and stormy winter for our region. 

Factors like whats happening way up in the stratosphere are supporting these ideas as the polar vortex is starting to weaken. This increases the probability for cold air to filter south. If I take this along with what my analogs show I feel good about how my ideas are evolving. 



More to come this week. Stay tuned.