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The 2023 Winter Outlook

Monday, April 30, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: The Heat Turns Up

Good morning. The highlight of this week will be our first shot at late spring temps as we get into the core of the week. A ridge of high pressure off the Atlantic ocean will move in over the east coast bringing with it temperatures in the 80s by Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday.

Today will be the only cooler day with temperatures in the upper 50's as a upper level low spins out of the area. A few showers are possible...

The ridge then builds in as the week progresses...

Temperaures respond at the surface...

By Friday, there is a chance a front works into the area bringing the chance at showers...

Depending on the timing of this we will have to see impacts and if they end up bleeding into Saturday morning. Regardless, I expect another nice weekend ahead once this front clears with temperatures moderating into the mid 70's.

Enjoy the nice weather!

Monday, April 23, 2018

Monday Weather Summary: Not A Bad Week Ahead

Good morning. As spring wears on even cooler than normal temperatures still feel pleasant. This regime will continue over the next week with highs in the low to mid 60s. With a late April sun however this will feel quite nice.

By the time we get to Wednesday a low pressure system does bring rounds of rain into the area...


Rain should end by later on Wednesday paving the way for nicer weather Thursday and Friday.

We then have to watch the potential for another low pressure system to develop on Saturday. If this occurs we could see some more rain, but the jury is still out...

As if now Sunday looks to be ok making for a decent weekend.

I do not see any prolonged warm ups in sight yet. Next week maybe see a few days above normal but then again the 60s with sun this time of year feel quite good imo.

Will update again around mid week.

Wednesday, April 18, 2018

Wednesday Note: No Big Warmups Yet

After looking at this weather pattern last few days, it is apparent that colder than normal temps will persist at least the next two weeks. From there, there is evidence that noticeably warmer temps could arrive by mid May.

You can see the chilly pattern next 5 days...

This means alot of 50s and 60s for temps.

Not horrible but certainly not summer like. As May gets underway strengthening polar vortex can mean warm air will work its way back north. Let's see what happens.

Friday, April 13, 2018

Friday Update: Major Snowstorm for Northern Plains, Warm in Mid Atlantic

Good morning. As temperatures begin to heat up over our region today and tomorrow (70s and 80s!), a major snowstorm will unfold in the northern plains...

This is very impressive and many areas will see ober a foot if not 2 feet of snow with this. To the south severe weather will break out.

As we enter this weekend the warm up will be confined to the Mid Atlantic and a back door cold front keeps it cool up in New England. Pretty crazy temperature gradient...

70s and 80s to the south and 20s to the north.

As the big storm system works it's way east, northern New England will see winter mix of precip later this weekend and our region sees showers and thunderstorms come Monday...


Not the best day to start the work week.

Here are projected snow totals when this is all said and done...



That's all for now, enjoy the beautiful weekend.

Tuesday, April 10, 2018

Tuesday Weather Update : Some Warmer Temps This Weekend, Storm in Plains

Good morning. Although the snow threats may be over for the most part, things have still been on the chilly side this month. Overall the chill will try to hold on but we will get some breaks into spring weather starting this weekend. Below you can see temps will finally go above normal..

Temperatures will climb into the 60s and 70s finally for most areas in the red this weekend! Notice the sharp cutoff to the north due to a backdoor cold front.

As we warm up in the east, a big storm in the plains reeks havoc with severe weather to the south and a blizzard in the northern plains...


This storm makes it into our region on Monday. Expect showers, heavy at times and thunderstorms as it moves through. Notice the snow still raging to the way north.

This is a very powerful and impressive system that is projected!

Take a look at the big upper level low! You will see impacts from this thing in the news...


That's all for now, i will comment more later this week. 

Friday, April 6, 2018

Friday Update: Dogged A Bullet

Good Morning. Sorry for no update yesterday, had a very busy day. In any event, the good news is our snow threat for Saturday has fizzled out. The storm will not amplify as originally projected and pass to our south...

Some snow will fall in VA, southern MD, DE, and extreme southern NJ. I do not expect major impacts down there however unless it's a higher elevation. Expect a few inches.

For the rest of us, this will just be a cold weekend for this time of year.

As we enter next week, another storm system is now projected to move to our south. We still need to also watch this closely however as if it amplifies more than expected it could result in a storm closer to the coast. Regardless, from the set up I see that scenerio would be rain unless it's in interior New England.

The Canadian model is the only one showing that scenerio...


From there things do stay chilly but that will do it for snow threats this year. Give it 2 more weeks and spring should be here in full swing. Until then, more colder than normal with a few spring days mixed in.

Will have more updates this weekend.

Wednesday, April 4, 2018

Wednesday Update: Snowstorm Potential for Saturrday

Good morning. This is no April fools joke, the current weather pattern we are in is impressive and potentially will deliver more winter weather on Saturday! I know this is bad news for most, but for a weather nut like me I can never get enough.

So lets talk about whats going on and how I think this evolves.

As I have been discussing we have very cold air in Canada that will be getting delivered into the eastern 1/3 of the country as we approach this weekend...


Also notice the pattern of a ridge in the west, some blocking over Greeland and an impressive vortex over eastern Canada. All these factors help lock in this cold air...


This air mass will feel more like March than April and is the first ingredient in our potential winter storm.

As this cold air mass establishes itself, a low pressure system will try to spin up on the boundary between warm and cold air Saturday...


Now as it stands I think the models are still too far south with this. I think it is likely this warm/cold boundary is a little more north and as a result we have the storm track about 50-75 miles more north than what you see above. That would make the threat map look like this...


Too early to talk accumulation as that is really depending on timing. If the storm hits peak during Saturday afternoon totals will be reduced due to the Sun. If it hits peak earlier then we have higher totals to discuss. Regardless, the potential for 4+ inches is easily on the table here.


More to come daily on this.

Monday, April 2, 2018

Monday Morning: April Snow Day

Good morning. As of 7am snow is falling regionwide and accumulations are starting to pile up. Many areas have a few inches on the ground with higher elevations of NW NJ already with 5" of snow. It seems the roads are somewhat snow covered in many areas.

The snow will end soon as the back edge is approaching. By 9 to 10am this is over...

When it's all said and done looks like this will go down as a nice early spring moderate snowfall. As short as this storm is, it packed a little punch.

Just wait till the sun comes out this afternoon and you will see how quick this melts. 

We still need to watch next weekend until we are out of the woods this winter season.

More to come.

Sunday, April 1, 2018

Snow Tomorrow Morning: What to Expect

A wave of low pressure moves into the region early tomorrow morning expect snow to accumulate north of I78 1 to 3 inches on grassy surfaces. The pavement should for the most part stay in decent shape.

For areas above 800ft in PA and NW NJ expect enhanced amounts of 3 to 5 inches. The roads should hold some snow.

Snow is over by mid morning. This should not be a concern for metro areas.

Next weekend we have one more shot at a winter type storm. Will narrow out details this week.

Happy Easter!