Tuesday, February 6, 2018

Tuesday Update: What To Expect Tomorrow

Good morning. As I discussed yesterday, some winter weather will move in tomorrow morning but it will change to ice then plain rain as the day goes on. Regardless, the timing of the onset of the snow will not be good for the morning commute in central to northern NJ and the surrounding areas. The snow with the cold surface temperature will cause impacts so be prepared. 

Here is what to expect:

Snow will start to break out for most areas by 7am tomorrow morning and earlier in PA...


By 10am some accumulations can be expected in PA, NNJ into southern New England...



Between 10am and 12pm mixed precipitation starts to move into the region as warm air moves in aloft...



As you can see despite the fact this changes to ice then plain rain the timing of the snow is not good for travel. In fact temperatures will be below 32 degrees and in the high 20's for many areas when this starts. Expect impacts.

 By the afternoon expect a cold rain for many areas south of interior New England. 

When it is all said and done I like the idea of a general 1-3 inches in NNJ with the 3 and maybe localized 4 inch amounts to the extreme NW. 

The GFS model has a good handle of snow amounts for this in my opinion...



In the wake of this storm system, things will cool back down to seasonable through the weekend. 

3 comments:

  1. Hey Willy, thanks for the Arctic update. Looks like things are gonna start whirling and splitting up there. Although as of today, 30/10/5 mb polar temps are rising but about average for the date. When you say polar or arctic, the obvious go-to guy is Dr. Cohen. So I read his 2/5 update, and as to weather implications in the eastern US . . . eh. Probably a bit chilly, but it doesn't even look as cold as the post-Christmas period. NAO may weaken, but no indications of negatives and a Greenland block / Maritimes low perma-structure; things stay pretty much zonal in the tropo. The PV split is more of a Eurasian chilling event. In the Pacific, the PNA and EPO seem kind-of non-commital. You've got the MJO way out in 7 and 8, and Dr. Cohen himself sez that the MJO may be the biggest driver of eastern weather for the next few weeks. But the MJO forecast plots currently move toward the neutral circle after a week or two. Nonetheless, the winter weather is sort of like Tom Brady. We're almost in the 4th quarter of winter, but there's still plenty of time for it to make a come-back and give us something more to remember than a cryogenic New Years Eve. I didn't start breathing again on Sunday night until that final bomb to Gronk fell to earth. So I'm still holding my breath as to Winter 2018. Jim G.

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    1. Jim-

      I am loosing confidence in this winter. IF we do not see a -NAO develop I really do not see how many areas get above average for snowfall. Our saving grace will be, as you mentioned, a big 4th quarter comeback with a big storm to end winter. That is not off the table but the progressive nature of this current pattern is very frustrating. The PV split is cool to see but as Dr. Cohen mentioned the jury is still out on what happens in the east. My hope is that the ski season up north at least picks up over the next few weeks Lets see what happens.

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    2. Willy, looks like we might have a year that pleases no one. The winter people get a fairly boring winter, and the spring people get a chilly late spring, kind of a continuation of the blah winter. Maybe this is being driven by the La Nina with a rather strong and still increasing easterly QBO? Dr Cohen seems to say, in effect, "hey, don't blame us Arctic people" (except maybe for helping with the late spring). It's like a long, long month of March !! Jim G

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