2019 WINTER OUTLOOK

**2019 WINTER OUTLOOK COMING MONDAY, OCTOBER 15TH**

Thursday, February 1, 2018

Thursday Update: Storm Next Week Looks To Target Intereior

Good morning. As a follow up to my most recent posts of a coastal storm developing on Monday, we are starting to get a little more clarity. At this time it looks to be an interior focused event with liquid precipitation for all areas on and off the coast. The fact of the matter is, there is nothing to lock in the cold air ahead of this system. As the storm develops it will erode the cold air causing any snow to change to rain except for in the interior.

The GFS shows this and its hard to argue with...

Image above is valid Sunday night into Monday morning. For most setups that produce snow for the I-95 corridor you need blocking high pressure over Greenland which helps lock in the cold air ahead of the storm. If you do not have that, then many times a storm will move in and sweep away the cold air off the coast. In the image below you can see how there is no high pressure over Greenland...


Using historical analogs also supports an interior event...


So whats the bottom line? The best case scenario right now for anyone wanting snow is this tracks a little more southeast. That would allow areas Nw of I-95 like NW NJ, central CT, MA, etc. to get a shot at accumulating snow. Otherwise this is a storm for the ski areas.

The pattern we are in will feature frequent cold shots and also the chance at some minor to maybe moderate events, but I am not excited about any major snowstorm until I see the pattern change over Greenland. This will just be an average winter snowfall wise for many if that does not change.

Lets see how this plays out over the next few days. 

2 comments:

  1. Average snowfall is what you predicted for the NYC area and above average for New England. If thats what we get then your forecast was right.

    ReplyDelete