Friday Weather Update: First Period to Watch Will Be Next Weekend

Good morning. As I mentioned on Tuesday, the mild spell we will in will transition in a stormier pattern as we head into March. This will be due to the upper air weather pattern turning much more favorable for east coast storm development.

The first period to watch will be towards next weekend...

Models are in very good agreement on a significant area of blocking high pressure to develop over Greenland. In response to this a vortex of low pressure forms off the east coast of Canada (50/50 low). This is just as significant as it serves to lock in high pressure over eastern Canada and just to the north of our area. Any storms that develop become trapped under the high pressure and with cold air locked in to play with.

Now we do not have details on where the cold air boundary sets up, but there is likely to be some sort of storm around a week from today and the chances are it will not be moving very fast because of the factors I discussed above.

For example, you can see the euro ensemble below shows a storm that is a little too far north for snow...

Due to the block to the north however, a storm like this would not just cut to our west but instead likely redevelop along the coast...

A pattern like this simply will not allow an inland cutter. That doesn't necessary mean snow for the Mid-Atlantic however. We need to evaluate the strength of this block over the next few days and how the models handle the energy moving under it.

Bottom line: The action picks up towards the end of next week and will continue into week 2 of March. Winter will try to make a comeback, the question is how far south....

More to come.