Monday, March 20, 2017

Monday: One More Shot of Winter Air This Week

Welcome to the 1st day of Spring! The season is under transition and we will see a lot of back and forth this week to that point. Things will start off more on the seasonable side today and Tuesday with temperatures in the upper 40's to low 50's  with mostly sunny skies.

Winter then gives us another jab however as an arctic air mass arrives Wednesday...



This arctic shot will only bring temperatures into the mid to upper 30's for highs Wednesday and Thursday with lows in the teens. It will feel more like mid-February again not late March.

Warm air however returns on Friday and Saturday with temperatures building back into the 60's by Saturday!

Things then get interesting Saturday night into Sunday as rain moves into the area with potential snow to the north...


I am watching this very closely especially for ski areas. This can be one of the last hurrah's for them. The reason the models are showing snow to the north with this system is due to a high pressure system building in on top of the low pressure from the north. Situations like this usually do produce some snow for New England, especially the ski areas. Further to the south it is highly unlikely anyone sees the frozen stuff.

Thats all for now, thanks for reading. 




Saturday, March 18, 2017

Major Shifts Last Night: Limited Impacts

*Note- I accidentally deleted last night's post. Any comments I can not see or respond to from that time.*


Good morning. Well, that was interesting. Every major model has backed off on anything impactful for today. Just some light snow for spots. We knew how tricky this system was to begin with, but I will say I am suprised with the degree things shifted. Talk about curve balls.

At this time looks like up to an inch maybe locally twi can fall in higher elevations of pa into NNJ. From there, the only consistency I can find is extreme eastern Mass/the Cape seeing accumulating snow. This will have to be watched in real time. 

Systems like this will always be hard to predict. Their features are small scale in nature which means a pin prick of a change in whats modeld has drastic changes in fhe forecast. Who knows maybe there will be a few suprises later today.

Friday, March 17, 2017

Friday Morning: A Closer Look at Tomorrow's Snow Threat

Summary:


  • Light snow moves in tomorrow morning
    • It will be rain to start for areas around I-78 south
  • A heavier band of snow develops Sat afternoon-Night
    • The exact placement of this is very difficult to nail down due to nature of storm system
  • The higher totals on my map are at elevations over 700ft 

Good morning. I have tweaked my map from yesterday regarding tomorrow's snow event. It is extremely difficult to nail down the accumulations with this one due to the fact they will be associated with something called an inverted trough. In simple terms an inverted trough means there will be a narrorw band of heavier snowfall in a localized area. It is almost impossible to the models to nail down the exact location in situations like this.

In any event here is my map. Again, the top range of the totals are for high elevations above 700ft. It is important to remember that. This is a light event for most. 



Light snow moves into the area tomorrow morning. For areas more south of my zones the initial precipitation can be rain. Notice I have marked that the higher end of totals are at higher elevations. That is an important point for this event as temperatures will be marginally cold for snow Saturday. 

Heavier snow should develop on Saturday afternoon into the night as a coastal low takes over. This is where that inverted trough is supposed to develop to produce the heaviest band. At this time it looks like NNJ into Southeastern New England has the best chance of getting in on that band. There will be localized heavy amounts (5"+) depending on who is in the best spot.

Looking at the models, light snow moves in tomorrow morning as a warm front associated with the approaching low moves moisture into the area...


Notice the rain and snow in NJ to my point above. This initial batch should not cause much in terms of accumulations except for higher elevations. 

A costal low then takes over on Saturday night...



This is where the heavier snowfall should develop in my highlighted zones. You can see the next frame of this progression below...


Notice how this model doesn't have much snow up in SE New England. Other models do however...



Again, that heavier band of snow you see above (darker blue) is caused by the inverted trough. You an see an inverted trough on an upper air map by a kink in the height lines...



Where ever this sets up gets the most snow. I can guarantee you one thing with this system, some will be disappointed.

More later. 

Thursday, March 16, 2017

No Post Tonight, Tomorrow AM Update

No changes to thoughts from this morning. Will evaluate updates to the Saturday into possibly Sunday morning snow threat for my highlighted area in the morning. 

Thursday Morning: More Snow on Tap Saturday

Thats right, that pesky little disturbance I mentioned yesterday looks like it want to produce on Saturday. 

The disturbance moves into our region early Saturday morning from the north...

This should cause snow to fall from I-78 north into New England. As this disturbances intensifies, low pressure looks to develop off the coast Saturday afternoon...


This is the tricky part, the exact placement of the heavy band of precip/snow is going to be tough to nail. We have evidence of something called an inverted trough that can develop. These are known for producing a narrow band of heavy snowfall. The model above shows it developing of NNJ into SE NE later on Saturday afternoon. However, other models vary with its placement.

My first estimate of what this system can produce is below....


I will update this map tomorrow morning as necessary.  It may be March, but the weather pattern we are in is more like early February. The weather will always surprise you. 

More later tonight, be sure to check in. 

Wednesday, March 15, 2017

Wednesday Morning: The Aftermath

Good morning. Our storm is now over, and we can evaluate what happened and why. It is no secret that the snowfall amounts did not live up to expectations around the I-95 but lets take a look at final outcome...

Vs my final forecast...



VS my initial impact map made Friday...



You can see my error was not to bring the 4-8 (light blue zone) further north. In reality it should have be touching the red zone. The red zone overall actually made out well. I reported 16" at  my location  in NW NJ and areas further north and west did see up to a 2 feet and locally more.  We discussed the risk in my video discussions of the I-95 but I was surprised how quickly that warm air moved in yesterday morning.

The crazy thing is (not to make excuses) every major model had all snow for I-95 except for the NAM. Hard to just ride one model into the sunset when making a forecast. However, the one red flag was the temperature profile of the upper atmosphere. Even tho most models had all snow, the margin was so thin that any slight adjustment would bring just enough warm air into the mix to cause sleet.  Thats exactly what happened. Our storm center formed about 30 miles more west than expected and well the rest is history. Places near I-95 were literally right on the edge the whole time which is why snow and sleet kept interchanging.

So moving on, today is cold and blustery (will feel like Feb) with blowing snow and snow showers moving through later..


This is due to the upper level low associated with yesterdays storm moving through...



The colder than normal air will be around at least the next 5 day. This weekend we have to watch the shot for some light to maybe moderate snow as a storm system dives down from the NW. If this system redevelops on the coast we could have an issue but thats not my forecast at this time. New England would be the focus anyway.

Thanks for all the interactions yesterday.

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Storm Winding Down, Snow Showers Linger Tonight

130pm Update:

Snow is ending across the state of NJ into the NY metro. We will have snow showers throughout the night however as some left over banding moves across the area from PA...



To the north over New England, snow continues through tonight. There will be a changeover near Boston and southern CT and RI. To the inland I expect heavy snow to continue. The highest totals will be in interior New England. Some areas will see over two feet. 

It was a disappointment for any areas south and near I-95. The storm lived up to its power (high winds, intense precipitation) but the warm air moved in more than expected. Areas to the north and west saw at least 10-14 inches so far. Much more has fell out in NY State and NE PA. I will evaluate everything tonight in a final post. For any of you that may have some choice words on your lack of snowfall, the comments section is up and running below.

Stay tuned.

830am Live Update: All Out Blizzard in North Jersey

We are now entering the height of the storm!



6am Update: Storm Intensifying Rapidly, Snow/Ice/Rain Line Drama

Good morning. Our storm system is intensifying rapidly and will continue to do so as the morning wears on. Warm air aloft has worked its way into areas along I-95 and even a little west of I-95 quicker than expected. This means some of you are waking up to sleet. To the far south over Balt/Wash, Phili and SNJ the snow is over and you will mostly be ice/rain from here on out. This is not a surprise. Along I-95 including up to RT. 78 into NYC a battle is setting up between ice and snow. I expect there to be a lot of back and forth this morning between the both. Although it can cut down on accumulations, the intense precipitation coupled with the high winds will make this storm just as dangerous and powerful. The same holds true for areas of southern CT, RI and eastern Mass. Warm air should work its way into those areas by later this morning. For the interior, the Blizzard will bear down hard through this afternoon. I will emphasize that the storm has not weakened or developed less powerful than expected. This is just a matter of adjusting the ice/snow line.

My quick video below breaks down these updates along with the snowfall map. I will be back later this morning around 10 am with footage from the height of the storm...



Monday, March 13, 2017

The Blizzard of 2017 Evening Update: Time to Hunker Down

My latest video below gives you a play by play of what to expect for tonight into tomorrow's historical blizzard. I discuss timing of snowfall, what areas may change to sleet and rain, along with more detail on snow totals. This storm will be one for the history books. I will have frequent updates throughout the storm on the blog along with @weatherwilly on twitter. Look forward to keeping everyone updated. Of course there will be live footage. 



Monday: The Blizzard of 2017 Will Be Historical

*HISTORICAL MARCH SNOWSTORM TO IMPACT THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY*


SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE TONIGHT THEN BECOME HEAVY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. AS STORM CENTER INTENSIFIES OFF DELAWARE COAST WINDS WILL INCREASE AND SNOWFALL RATES WILL PICK UP RAPIDLY TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT 1-3" PER HOUR SNOWFALL RATES IN HARDEST HIT AREAS. WINDS NEAR COAST WILL BE GUSTING OVER 50 MPH WITH OVER 40MPH GUSTS INLAND. THIS SHOULD MAKE TRAVEL NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TUESDAY. FOR COASTAL AREAS AND AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF I-95, SNOW SHOULD CHANGE TO A MIX AND EVEN RAIN TO THE FAR SOUTH TUESDAY. ALL OTHER AREAS WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD SEE OVER A FOOT AND POSSIBLY UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW.

Play by play video tonight at 7pm

Here is my Final Forecast....




Latest model guidance has only trended more impressive with this storm system over the last 24 hours. Every major model is now indicating an intense low pressure system with remarkable snowfall rates. The height of this storm will be tomorrow morning into the afternoon. At this time whiteout conditions should spread through  most of the area. Here is latest GFS model below which has finally caught up to other model guidance...

8am...



2pm...


8pm..



You can see how intense the low pressure center is and the remarkable snowfall rates as seen by the dark blue.

Winds will be intense as well by Tuesday morning...



At 18000ft this is a work of art....


We have energy from 3 jet streams basically consolidating in the east. The trend in this data point alone gives me confidence that this threat is for real.

I will have a play by play video breakdown live at 7pm tonight. Live coverage also on tap all day tomorrow.

Sunday, March 12, 2017

6pm Update: The Blizzard of 2017

Historic March blizzard is on track. Latest model guidance has trended even more aggressive with the intensity of the storm. This latest video provides my most updated perspective. My final snow forecast is out tomorrow morning. Stay tuned, this should be one for the books!




Sunday Morning: Crippling Blizzard to Slam Region Tuesday

A MAJOR WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOW ARRIVES LATE MONDAY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND QUICKLY BUILDS IN INTENSITY BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. BY LATE TUESDAY MORNING EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD HIT 1 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR IN SPOTS. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE. THIS WILL BE THE BIGGEST STORM OF THE SEASON AND POSSIBLY THE LARGEST MARCH STORM IN OVER 20 YEARS. MAJOR CITIES FROM BALTIMORE TO BOSTON WILL BE LARGELY IMPACTED WITH HEAVY SNOW, HIGH WINDS AND WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AT TIMES,ESPECIALLY NYC AND BOSTON. WHEN IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE, 1-2 FEET OF SNOW WILL FALL REGION WIDE WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR DELMARVA, BALT/WASH AND SOUTH JERSEY. 

Next update on this situation will be at 6pm. We need to keep a close on how close to the coast this gets as borderline areas can be effected snow total wise. 


I have updated my map from yesterday morning with a few tweaks. I brought heaviest snow a little further south based on latest trends. In the purple zone a general 1-2 feet can be expected. I am keeping the 12-18 for now until the final forecast comes out tomorrow morning. I still am concerned that this does inch more into the coast which will keep totals down to the south especially over Balt/Wash and Southern NJ due to mixing. 




The European, Canadian, NAM, and GFS models are all flashing major signals over last 12 hours.

Below you can see the most latest European frames from Tuesday morning, afternoon and evening (click to make bigger)..




This along with the Canadian model are most aggressive with this storm system. What you see above is a major deal as the storm center passes just off the coast of NJ then NE towards Cape Cod. 

You can see the wind gusts in Kts projected for Tuesday afternoon into evening. This will result in blizzard conditions for areas near the coast..



The GFS model has been a little chaotic last 2 runs and has the storm exiting more quickly to the southeast...


This would mean heavy snow does not make it as far inland. Its snow printout map looks weird to me with a snow hole for part of the interior...

Its ensembles show a similar thing. It may very well end up being correct, but from the analysis I did of the model this projection seems off. 

Stay tuned for tonights video update!


Working on Update Now

Should be out within the hour. We got a major storm on our hands.

Saturday, March 11, 2017

Saturday Evening Update: No Changes, Evaluating Trends

No major changes to my thoughts from this morning. We had a set of model runs today that trended east with the storm but I need to see another round or two of model runs to justify an eastern shift in my forecast ideas. Tonight's data is very important.

I will have updated forecast out with any necessary changes tomorrow morning. Many might ask is there a chance this storm doesn't hit? Of course there is but I would not assign a high probability to that at this time. 


Next Update 630pm

Saturday Morning: MAJOR STORM TO IMPACT REGION TUESDAY

The Initial Forecast

Good morning. A major, possibly historic winter storm will be impacting the region from late Monday night into Tuesday night. As usual, there are still details to iron out but I have enough information to make an INITIAL forecast. This will be updated as necessary but it is my best estimate of what to expect at this time. A storm will be coming, its just a matter of exact track. If the storm tracks more west than expected, the snow lines move NW. If it tracks more east, the snow lines move more SE. Both those options are still on the table. I will have a more detailed breakdown tonight around 5pm.






Latest model guidance is converging on a low pressure track that moves from just off the delaware bay northeast off of cape cod. Depending on how that track shifts will depend on the bullseye zone. The GFS model is seen below. My forecast is based off of a blend of GFS, European, ensemble, and historical analog guidance. 


Stay tuned for important updates. This is a very fluid situation. 

Friday, March 10, 2017

Major Winter Storm To Impact Region Tuesday: The Updated Video Breakdown

Latest trends in models are not backing off the idea of a major winter storm on Tuesday. Still need to work out where rain snow line sets up and exact track but I provide my updated speculation on this in the video below. Enjoy, More tomorrow morning.





*Major Storm To Impact Region Tuesday: 530pm Update on Tap*

See my thoughts from this morning below..

Friday Morning Storm Update: Snow Ends Later this AM, Big Storm Chances Increasing

Summary:


  • Snow ends later this morning
    • no changes to my foreacst of a low impact event
  • Big storm next week gaining more traction 
    • Timing is Tuesday morning to Tuesday Night
    • Storm is still not a lock but confidence is increasing
  • Based on my latest analysis I think the storm trends more west not east (see my map below)
    • This means heaviest snow is off the coast
    • Near coastal areas we could see snow changing to a mix if I am correct
  • There are models that are more east 
    • This would mean all snow at coast and less snow to the west of I-95
  • Regardless, someone should see a significant accumulation
    • I will be honing in on this and putting out updated maps over next few days (including accumulations)
  • Update 550pm tonight



Good morning. Big things to talk about for early next week, but before we get there lets take a look at current radar. Moderate snow is moving into NNJ and S NE currently...

Over central and S NJ it is not snowing yet but will change over. As I mentioned, not major impacts from this unless you drive on the grass. I like the snow map I had out yesterday.

Moving on, I have just made my first impact map for the storm potential Tuesday into early Wednesday...

This map is based on what  my initial estimate of the impacts this storm will have. It is not taken from one particular model and does vary somewhat from what certain models are showing. It is a forecast not a modelcast. 

I am currently in the camp that this storm trends more west not east. Some models like the Canadian and European are more east, but based on my analysis of the upper air pattern I think they are wrong. Time will tell if I am right.

If this does trend more west as I speculate it will, it means coastal areas see snow turning over to mixed precip. If it trends east, then coastal areas are all snow and the heaviest bands do not make it much past the I-95 corridor. This is why you do not see snow amounts yet, I am going to wait until tomorrow to speculate on those. 

One of the reasons I am thinking this trends more west is due to trends in the models to increase the sharpness of the trough off the coast. The image below shows the 48 hr trend over the Atlantic. Notice how the red represents it has trended sharper. This means the storm can hug the coast more..


The best model right now is the GFS IMO. This solution has support from many of its ensembles and also the european ensemble members. 



Today will be a big day of runs. Stay tuned for an update around 530 tonight.

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Thursday Night Special Storm Discussion: Winter Strikes Back

Video below breaks down tomorrow morning's light to moderate snow event along with more details on potential major storm early next week. Enjoy, more tomorrow morning.



Thursday Morning Storm(s) Update: Flakes Fly Tomorrow, Big Storm Next Week Uncertain

Summary:


  • light to moderate snow moves in tomorrow morning
    • Few inches with locally more at higher elevations
    • Roads should make out ok
  • Potential big storm for early next week
    • Details still unclear as this can miss out to sea
    • A direct hit would have big impacts
    • Chance of impact 50%
  • Video tonight 8pm



Good morning. We got snow in the forecast for tomorrow morning and as usual I have made a snowfall map seen below..


Snow arrives just before daybreak and should be over before the afternoon. This shouldn't be a major issue, the higher end of the totals seen above are going to be at elevations above 700ft. Otherwise, I expect most of the accumulation to stay on the grass with some moderate road impacts in spots. This  is especially true for any areas south of I-78. I do not expect many impacts there.


Moving on, we have a potential big storm to track for early next week. As usual the details are still very uncertain and models are doing their normal wobble with this system. I am holding myself back from making any bold prediction until at least tomorrow due to the complexity of the situation. However, I think I am starting to iron out where the "miss" will be if this storm doesn't impact our area.

Lets take a look..

Many models currently show a quite significant hit for the region Tuesday...

Others like the Canadian show this storm developing too late offshore...


If we take a look at the model ensembles (normal model's inputs adjusted and rerun multiple times) we see that we have quite the spread of solutions of where the center of the storm can be...



Some members have an absolute bomb off the coast, while others are out to sea. To help with this, we also can look at historical analogs and compare what those results rendered...

You can see they support the idea of accumulating snow along the I-95 corridor which ironically splits the difference between all these different ensemble members. 

It is not that easy however, the key lies at 18000ft in the atmosphere and how interactions occur...


The biggest key, as described yesterday is the strength and positioning of the ridge out west (marked by the line). If this is sharp and positioned say over Montana, it supports low pressure development along the coast. Also, we need to look at the different pieces of energy coming together marked by the X's. The top two have been consistently trying to merge but that pesky southern piece has been dancing around. This can result in development further offshore if it shoots out too far ahead, especially with a weaker ridge. 

I will have a video later tonight around 8 to discuss this is more understandable terms. At this point I give the chance of a storm at 50% and would target areas from Harrisburg to NYC to Boston to Portland. The miss here will def be out to sea. Lets see how the trends come in over next 36 hrs. If by tomorrow afternoon this is more east I think we can bury it. 

Wednesday, March 8, 2017

Wednesday Morning: Things Just Got Interesting for Early Next Week

Summary:

  • Light snow for NNJ into S. New England Friday morning
  • Very cold air moves in for the weekend
  • Long range models showing strong signal for potential larger storm early next week


Good morning. The next 7 days have continued to become more interesting as new data comes in. Areas in NNJ into southern New England see a light snow event Friday morning, a storm misses to our south Sunday, and then a potential big ticket item is on the boards for Tuesday. For what its worth, this is winters last stand no matter what happens.

Cold air arrives tomorrow and a wave of low pressure comes along into the area Friday on its heals...



I mentioned yesterday how I thought the snow line was too far south with this and latest model data confirms my suspicion. The most recent nam model (seen above) makes the most sense to me. Areas of NNJ/PA into S. New England see 2 to 4 inches with this mostly falling Friday morning.

Very very cold air then moves in for the weekend. Temperatures will not get above 30 for many areas for highs and lows in the teens...



The cold is so strong that it suppresses a developing storm to our south seen below..


However, the suspense does not end there, all  major model groups are now indicating we can see a potential bigger storm develop for early next week. Of course they vary in exact placement and intensity, but the general idea is there. 

Here is what the GFS model is showing..


This if verified would be a major, powerful winter storm. However, this is a week away! We know that things are going to change. So given that fact, where do we go from here? Few things that concern me about this threat...


  • It is on the heals of an arctic outbreak, a signature of major storms
  • All major model groups and there ensembles look similar overall
    • many bigger storms over the years tend to give this strong signal 7 days out
  • There is evidence of persistent ridging along the west coast, a key variable of winter storms


This does not mean over a foot of snow is going to fall in your backyard. If this thing actually forms, which by no means is a lock, its a matter of the track and intensity. The only thing we know now is the signal the models and the pattern are giving. If by Friday this signal does not weaken then it will be time to get concerned. 

So lets look at the projected pattern which all the major model groups are showing to be very similar...


The key to all of this is the pattern slowing down. What I mean by that is that big ridge of high pressure seen above in the west causing energy to consolidate along the east. Think of this as a stream of water trying to move around a big bend. The water piles up as it tries to make the turn. Same happens with our weather if we see the waves of the jet stream amplify as seen above. Also, the pattern supports the cold air to stay locked in due to air coming together aloft (confluence) which triggers high pressure at the surface. 

Like I said, the strong signal is there now its just a matter of does this signal change much as we get through the next 3 or 4 days. Time will tell. Stay tuned for updates!

Tuesday, March 7, 2017

Tuesday Morning: A Close Call This Weekend

Good morning everyone. As a follow up to last nights post, we do have some storm (winter) activity to track for this upcoming weekend. As it stands now, most of this misses our region to the south. Like anything else in model land however, its not about what the models show right now but where they might trend. I have been trying to figure this out over the last few days.

Here is what my thoughts are at this current time...

On Friday, we have a weak clipper system that should impact the area. I believe any area from central NJ north has the shot at light accumulating snow. This will be nothing serious but will put a winter feel in the air. The current GFS model looks ok on this, but I would adjust the snow area about 50 miles north from what you see below valid Friday morning...



This clipper brings with it very cold air for Saturday. Temps will struggle to get into the mid 30's.

In the wake of this clipper, we then need to focus on a potential bigger system for Sunday. As stands, models are trending south with this system with a miss for most northern areas..



This is due to high pressure being too strong which acts to squash it...




 The issue here is what is causing this high pressure to be so strong. The answer is what is going on in the upper atmosphere. We have a very strong vortex over E Canada (a great sign for a winter storm, but not when it is too strong)...



If this vortex circled in red was to end up more north than modeled then we would get a storm that is allowed to come further north as well. This would have big implications for our region. 

Historical analogs suggest this does stay south but not by much...



The next 36 hours are key. If we do not see any northern adjustments by Thursday morning then we can write this off. I do think this ends up staying south as projected. Let's see what happens. We will then have one more to track for early next week.

Stay tuned.