Tuesday, August 29, 2017

Tuesday: Harvey Slowly Begins to Exit

The destruction continues. Early every river and stream in the Houston area has overflowed into the surrounding communities. Rain will continue in the Houston area today but the center of the rain does move to the northeast by tonight as Harvey begins to pick up speed. So far rain totals are exceeding 3 feet in many spots and we might end up seeing reports close to 4 feet in some spots when this is all said and done!! 

By this afternoon, Harvey is slowing moving....


By tomorrow morning things are looking better...

This clearly goes down in history as one of the worst flood if not the worst flood disaster we have ever seen. We will wait for the final observations to make that call. Again, it wasn't so much the storm being unique but rather a combination of factors causing this storm to slow down and stall throwing rain back into the area for days.

As Harvey is ongoing, we also now have bad weather in our area today as Potential Tropical Cyclone 10 moves off the cost...


Rain will make it as far north as NNJ today and gale force winds for coastal areas to the south especially the Carolina coast....


This then curves out to sea later tonight.

In the long range, we then need to watch a wave emerging off of Africa....

Models are aggressive on developing this into a potential hurricane but the track is much too uncertain at this time...


We will keep an eye on this.

Monday, August 28, 2017

Monday: Harvey Taking it's Toll, Rainfall and Floods Prevail

Good morning. As many of you know Hurricane Harvey (now tropical storm)is a historical event underway. We have already seen coastal destruction from the high winds at landfall Friday night and now massive floods around the Houston area due to the epic rains that are falling. There are some location that already reported up to 30 inches of rain! What will rains like this do? The image below sums up the horrible destruction...


The rain will continue through Thursday as this storm sits on the coast of TX and slowly drifts to the SW then finally to the NE as it starts to dissipate later this week.

Here is the current radar of the storm...


Notice the bands of moisture coming in off the ocean. Bands like these have caused the extremely high rainfall numbers we are seeing. These bands are due to a fetch of moisture the storm allows to come in off the Gulf. The image below shows how the storm circulation causes this moisture fetch as seen by the blue bands...


By tomorrow morning the storm has not moved much...


By Wednesday morning it has start to drift northeast...


Notice rain bands continue to come in off the ocean for both days!

Finally by Thursday it starts to wind down..

When it is all said and done up to another 2 feet of rain will fall in some areas...


All we can do now is wait and hope the rescue effort executes well down there. This is history in the making. 

So why is this happening? It has nothing to do with this storm being stronger than others from an historical perspective but rather the speed of this storm. The storm is sandwiched between two high pressure systems as I drew below....

The jet stream is also to the north so the storm is not getting caught up in its flow...


The result is a storm that lingers near a warm moist Gulf of Mexico. Again its not that anything on its own is out of the ordinary this is just a case of a a perfect alignment of individual factors to cause this destruction of rainfall. 

Lets hope the folks the best down in this region.


PS...

We have another tropical system  to watch that will skirt by the Carolina's this week. This will not be a hurricane but rather a combo of a tropical system/Nor'easter....

The tropical season then stays very active over the next few weeks. We have a lot to track.

More later.


Sunday, August 27, 2017

Saturday, August 26, 2017

Saturday Morning Harvey Update: Destruction Underway

This hurricane has been no drill. Harvey made landfall last night as a Category 4 hurricane (first major to hit the US in over 10 years) with winds over 115 mph in the inner eye wall. A storm chaser caught this all on camera, watch the last 5 min on this video below...insane footage!

https://twitter.com/VWeatherWatcher/status/901259335367630848


Currently Harvey is now completely over land and a category 1 storm...



Rains are unleashing over the region and will continue through middle of next week!!



The National Hurricane Center shows this lingering track through Thursday...


I would not be surprised if this strengthens again if it ventures back over water. The European model has been indicating this for days...


Just a very bad situation underway. We will see 30+ rain amounts in some local areas over the next few days.

More to come...

Friday, August 25, 2017

Friday Morning: Update on Harvey

Good morning. Hurricane Harvey is alive and very well this morning. This will be quite a problem when it makes landfall as at likely a Cat 2/3 storm later tonight.

Here is the latest from the National Hurricane Center:

Notice how this storm will linger for days. This means it will hit as a Hurricane, weaken to a tropical storm then possibly restrengthen as it makes a loop to the right early next week. Thats just horrible news for folks news the coast. Check out the rainfall projections we are now looking at 2 feet in spots...


On Satellite the storm is impressive this morning and restrengthening...


Recent aircraft reconnaissance into the storm found dropping pressures and high winds as seen below...

Pressures dropping in the low 950s and winds over 90kts.

We will be watching this today and I will have an update tonight.

Thursday, August 24, 2017

Tropical Storm Harvey is Born: Initial Thoughts

Good morning, I have a special post on a new tropical cyclone, Harvey, that has been born in the Gulf. This system looks like it will be a real threat to the Gulf states, especially the TX coast with a potential developing hurricane and heavy rainfall on tap.

The national Hurricane Center just updated their track of this system..

Notice the spread in the cone for where this system can go.

The concern with this system is how warm the Gulf waters are and how slow this is going to move. Check out how warm the Gulf waters are. This provides fuel for the storm as the warm buoyant air rises and aids in the storm development...

In addition, the upper level winds are weak which means the storm does not move fast and can linger and strengthen...


 Notice the jet stream separated to the north. This means Harvey will not initially get caught up in the upper level flow of the atmosphere. 

Models show this storm strengthening and I believe it does become a Hurricane. Here is its current satellite picture...


This will continue to organize and develop a tighter circulation. You can see from the next projected model image what this may look like in a few days...

Along with potential Hurricane winds, major rains will be a real threat too...

Up to a foot of rain is not out of the question for some areas. This is due to the storm lingering as discussed above.

Will continue to update on this as days go on. 

Monday, August 21, 2017

Monday: All Eyes (Not Literally) On The Eclipse Today, Pleasant Rest of Week

Good morning. Well, the big news item today will be the total solar Eclipse that will occur this afternoon. Granted, in our neck of the woods we only will get about 70% of the Eclipse but some areas down south get to see the full one. You can click here to see more info on this. Peak viewing is around 2:44pm for our area today.

So how will the weather be for proper viewing? Overall not too bad. We will have some scattered cloud cover to deal with especially in western NJ and PA but my forecast is for mostly sunny skies for areas more to the east. Model projections show this well..


Notice areas of some denser clouds but the overall region looks ok. If you happen to miss it, you will have to wait till 2024 to get your next chance.

Moving on, we look to have an overall nice week on tap. Things will start off warm today and Tuesday with temperatures in the uppers 80s today and possibly low 90s tomorrow. Humidity will also be on in the increase tomorrow with a few isolated thunderstorms.

On Wednesday relief comes as a front will approach from the west...


The speed and timing of this front is a little hard to nail down but it looks to pass earlier in the day. This means less chance at widespread showers and storm as the air will not be a destabilized from daytime heating. Regardless, I would put the chance at showers in the forecast for Wednesday as the timing of the front can change. 

In the wake of this front we will have beautiful fall like weather for Thursday through the weekend as high pressure and a northwest flow dominates the region. You can see the pocket of cooler air below..


Should really be a great period to be outside.

Taking a look at the longer range weather, it looks like this persistent pattern of cooler than normal weather will dominate through the rest of August. You can see models below continue to show the persistent pattern of a rise of the jet stream in the west (red) and a dip in the jet stream in the east (blue). Also notice the high pressure or red over Greenland. this pattern also enhances the cooler than normal weather for our part of the country. If this was the winter we would have quite the action to talk about...


Will the winter look anything like this? Find out in October when I release my winter outlook 2018.

We will also have to watch the tropics over the next month as model indicate things really can start heating up (hurricane season). Stay tuned!

Monday, August 14, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary

Good morning. It was a beautiful weekend for most areas with more of a fall like bite to the air than mid-August. As we head into this week, the moderate temperature pattern will prevail with temperatures in the low to maybe mid 80s for spots this week.

Today we see sunny skies but by tomorrow an approaching warm front can cause a few showers can develop in the morning..


Things will be partly sunny however especially by the afternoon.

On Wednesday and Thursday high pressure builds into the region keeping skies sunny with temperatures in the 80s.

A cold front then looks to cross the area on Friday morning causing showers and some storms to move through...

Things should clear by later in the afternoon Friday.

This paves the way for a calm and beautiful weekend with low humidity and temperatures in the low 80s. 

Thats all for now, I have been starting to look at the winter forecast. It will be released in mid October and we have many factors to watch evolve this year. For those of you who might have seen the Farmer Almanac forecast that just came out, its a fun read but I would not put much stock in it. I don't see how anyone at this point can make a strong case for a harsh or mild winter. By October we should have enough info to make a good educated prediction. I certainty do not see anything lining up yet to produce a winter similar to 2014 like I have seen some suggest. 



Monday, August 7, 2017

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Rainy Day leads to Pleasant Week

Good morning. Today will be an old fashioned rainy day in the Mid-Atlantic as a low pressure system tracks through our region.

Rain arrives later this morning...

This will continue on and off throughout the day getting heavy at times, especially to the south. 

By tonight the low is tracking off the coast...


Notice the heavy areas of rain indicated by yellow areas.

Rain ends tonight and dry pleasant weather then moves in for the rest of the week. Temperatures will be in the low 80's through Friday with mostly sunny skies.

We then will have to watch for more unsettled weather as the weekend as a frontal system can move into the area. More on this later in the week.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Tuesday: Weekly Weather Update

Good morning and welcome to August. Things will feel like early August this week as temperatures climb into the upper 80's to low 90's through Friday. 

Today will feature mostly sunny skies with high pressure in control. You will notice the temperatures rising today as winds move in from the southwest.

For Wednesday, a few afternoon showers and storm may develop as some upper level energy combined with the warm air causes some minor instability...

The same can be said for Thursday.

Things do not get too active till Friday when a big front will sweep through the region..

This will bring with it a very good chance of showers and thunderstorms. We will have to see when the exact timing of this frontal passage is, but as of now the afternoon looks likely.

This will usher in a cooler than normal air mass working its way in from the west....

The center of this cool weather stays near the countries midsection, but it will still be a nice break from the heat as temps fall back down into the low 80's for the weekend with clear conditions.

Overall, I see no signs of this summer pattern we have been under breaking. Any major heat we have is short lived and frequently will lead to frontal passages and cooling temperatures. If this was the winter, we would be in a great pattern for stormy conditions. I ask myself if we are wasting such a good pattern in the warm summer months. Only time will tell, and I will start to look at all of this over the next few months as I prepare my Winter Outlook 2018.

Thanks for reading.