Friday, July 28, 2017

Weekend Update: Very Wet for Some Sat, Cool Conditions to Follow

Good morning. Taking a look at the weather maps this morning looks more like a fall than winter setup as a summer Nor'easter will move through southern areas tonight into tomorrow....



Heavy rain should impact SNJ down into the Delmarva region from late tonight into tomorrow. 1-3" of rain can fall from this system down in those areas as seen below...


You can see areas in Delaware, MD, and northern VA look to take the brunt of this storm system.

To the north I expect a sharp cutoff especially as you start moving north of Philadelphia. Recent model trends have been to strengthen the upper level low to the northeast of this system which has acted to suppress it more than originally thought. 

In any event, even the areas that do not see much rain do see cloudy skies tomorrow morning. I do expect these clouds to break up though as we get into late afternoon into early morning. The rain will also end by late morning for the southern areas.

This will leave us with a beautiful fall like air mass with high temperatures in the 70's both on Saturday and Sunday. 

Overall, the weekend look decent once we get through tonight into tomorrow morning. 

Monday, July 24, 2017

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Clearing and Calm Till Friday

Good morning. Our area is currently under the influence of a frontal boundary this morning which means more impulses of rain moving through the area...



By this afternoon this frontal boundary should drape to our south which will allow the wet weather to end and usher in dryer and more pleasant air for Tuesday through Thursday.

You can see below the cooler air (green) that moves in Tuesday with a northwest wind. This will keep the humidity values down some as we enter the core of the week..

Expect temperatures Tuesday through Thursday to be in the low 80s with mostly sunny skies.

On Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the northwest bringing with it showers and some possible storms...

Models are then indicating we can see a wave or two of low pressure develop along this front Friday which could be a chance at more consistent rain...


Regardless, it looks like this will clear out by the weekend paving the way for decent weather. If this front stalls then that forecast will have to be changed. Will update later this week. 

Enjoy the week!

Monday, July 17, 2017

Monday Morning: On Vacation This Week

Sailing to Bermuda currently, although a healthy moisture feed in the Atlantic is keeping the sun at bay.

Will resume posting next week. Also, the blog will start discussing Winter 2018 as Aug approaches. No outlooks till October but I will start to post on some factors I am looking at.

Stay tuned!

Monday, July 10, 2017

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Hot Muggy Conditions Take Hold This Week

Good morning. This week will feature a good dose of hot and humid summer weather especially as we get into the heart of the week. As usual, this will bring with it the chances of thunderstorms as boundaries of air and upper level disturbances cause this hot muggy air to lift at times.

Today will be the nicest with temperatures in the mid 80's and tame humidity. As we enter Tuesday this changes as the winds shift and come in from the south bringing the humidity with them.

A frontal passage will produce thunderstorms some of which may be severe as we enter Tuesday afternoon...

All areas will have the shot at the storms, but the most likely area for severe weather will be a little more towards the north.

Wednesday should be mostly dry with maybe a few isolated pop up storms. Temperatures will stay warm in the upper 80's.

Even muggier air arrives on Thursday with temperatures in the low 90's with high humidity values. We will also have the chance at more strong to severe storms as an upper level disturbance will again increase the chances for the warm humid air to rise and form storms. 

We will have to watch how the weather evolves as we enter Friday. Models are hinting that a wave of low pressure may form along a frontal boundary which could cause more rounds of showers into Friday morning....



The frontal boundary will however lower temperatures into the low to mid 80's Friday giving the regions a break in the heat. 

The weekend then looks to be fairly tame with mostly sunny conditions lower humidity and temperatures in the mid 80s.

I will update as we get closer to the weekend along with comment on any severe weather we see tomorrow or Thursday. 

Thursday, July 6, 2017

Thursday Weekend Update: Wet Today, Clearing by Weekend

Good morning. As we wake up today, a low pressure center is moving towards our area along a stalled frontal boundary...


This will keep things cloudy today with a few rounds of showers especially to the south.

Showers run into tomorrow morning as the low finally departs to our northeast...

Sun will come out tomorrow once this system leaves the area.

As we head into Saturday we will have a nice day with mostly sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 80's.

A cold front then approaches Saturday night. Showers should develop ahead of this front but as of now it looks like they are confined to areas in New England as seen below...

I am not ruling out showers for areas closer to the coast Saturday as any disturbance ahead of this front can cause a few pop ups.

The cooler air from the front arrives Saturday night with lows in the mid to high 50's for many spots...

This will lead to a beautiful day Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70's for most spots and sunny skies. 

Enjoy.