The Initial Forecast
Good morning. A major, possibly historic winter storm will be impacting the region from late Monday night into Tuesday night. As usual, there are still details to iron out but I have enough information to make an INITIAL forecast. This will be updated as necessary but it is my best estimate of what to expect at this time. A storm will be coming, its just a matter of exact track. If the storm tracks more west than expected, the snow lines move NW. If it tracks more east, the snow lines move more SE. Both those options are still on the table. I will have a more detailed breakdown tonight around 5pm.
Latest model guidance is converging on a low pressure track that moves from just off the delaware bay northeast off of cape cod. Depending on how that track shifts will depend on the bullseye zone. The GFS model is seen below. My forecast is based off of a blend of GFS, European, ensemble, and historical analog guidance.
Stay tuned for important updates. This is a very fluid situation.