Wednesday, February 15, 2017

Wednesday Morning Weather Discussion: The S Word is Becoming Relevant

Spring, thats right. It will not be long before spring takes it hold on the Mid-Atlantic. Now I am not like most people, if it was up to me I could have winter until May but that's not the way it works. With the exception of northern VT,NH and Maine it has been a pretty below average winter for snowfall. It just was not in the cards for us this year. Some years it wants to snow, others it doesn't. This year it was clear it wanted to snow out west and way up north. But hey, at least we got something. 

Winter is never officially over in my book until the 3nd week of March. However, when it comes to this year the window is shutting rapidly. We will have a big warm up next week followed by a wildcard, rabbit out of your hate type set up for a storm to develop late next week. This means it probably will not happen. Heading into early March one last gasp of winter is not off the table but it is too early to predict that at this time. Overall we are clearly in the 9th inning here.

A storm that could have been is missing us to the east and will hook back into Maine tonight with more snow...


Maine currently has a 50 inch snowpack in spots and this will add to it. It has been an epic week for that state. Areas in NH,VT and eastern Mass also will see snow from this. Expect several inches there as well. This was sooo close to being a big storm for everyone. 

Here are updated snowfall projections for this...

 
Moving onto late this weekend into next week, a surge of warmth...


Storm activity will pick up late next week but the models are trying to sort it out. You can see below it shows a lot of activity on the maps...


We clearly are not going to have two side by side storms like this. What will likely happen is one big storm that cuts inland with rain. The chances at snow are there but very slim. Everything would have to be timed perfectly.

That is all for now, more to come later this week. 

4 comments:

  1. Kind of miss that Gulf of Alaska warm water "blob" that reigned for a few years (the hard winter seasons of 2013-2015), but got eaten up by El Nino last year. "Since you've been gone, nothing seems the same . . . " Jim G

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  2. I gave up on winter a long time ago (well not really that's why I'm here). We are long past the category of a, "good winter" classification. We are even past the salvage stage. We are at the, "please lets have one big snowstorm before I cut the grass" stage. On another snow note, I am not a fan of taking weather readings from mountaintop locations and listing it as the official statistic. For example the readings from Binghamton, NY are taken from a hilltop (1,600 ft.) in an area aligned perfectly to receive heavier snow and numerous snow shower situations. According to them almost 90 inches of snow has fallen this winter. Come down to where people live and you get about 30-35 inches off the hill-it gets worse as you head West. Waverly, NY try 20-25 inches (and that's a stretch). So I caution snow amount from a location is only accurate where the snowboard that measures snow is set by NOAA. Yes-that is how NOAA measures snow, each hr. They take the snow depth on the board before wiping it clean for the next hourly measurement.

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    1. Yeah I agree, I hate those skewed observations. We live in the real world and you need to report the weather as most people see it, not the few that live at high elevations. This winter has been horrendous for most areas in the eastern 1/3. Northern New England has done well especially in mtn region. Other than that there is no way to spin this mild winter. We can only now look forward to next year. I threw in the towel for anyone south of the Poughkeepsie area.

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