Friday, February 10, 2017

Friday Morning: More Action Looms

Good morning. It turned out to be a powerful storm yesterday. Many areas from NNJ into New England saw 8-14 inches of snow with some very high local amounts.

Here is a verification of my forecast.....

Overall not too bad. I got the 1-3 in Philadelphia right but was a little high for some parts of south central jersey. I was a little too low for areas of New England. Notice there is an isolated 19 inch amount near West Hartford! I give myself a B+ on this one.

So moving on, the folks in New England have another major snowstorm on tap for early next week!

Check this out..

Sunday night..


This is a major storm. A upper level short wave dives down from Canada and completly closes off into a rapidly deepening storm. Areas of NYC are too far south on this one and see rain with potentially some light back end snow. 

Here are GFS models estimated snowfall totals (click to make bigger). I will make my own map tomorrow...

We then have to watch for another storm threat late next week. We have very impressive players on the field for this one I am just not sure if they will come together correctly....

Big ridge out west, ridge of Greenland, low pressure vortex near 50/50, and two pieces of energy from northern and southern jet stream. We need that southern piece of energy marked by the X to eject faster. IF that happens and it combines with the northern stream X then we get a major storm. At this time I say chances are 35%.

So winter is finally here guys. New England gets another significant snowfall and areas to south are still in play next 2 weeks. Let see how it all plays out. We need more snow to save this winter. 

More later.


  1. The dry slot depicted pushing up into New York State on the snow maps is part of the snow-hole area I've talked about in the past (Corning , Elmira, Bing, etc. Let's hope that's a grapho- (my slang for graphical error. I've seen these maps depicting the snowless area before and they were spot-on.

  2. Must be the mountains all around your area. I can see what your saying on these maps. If you went 20 miles west of Elmira into the higher elevations do they always get a lot more?

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. we are in a very large bowl shaped area, I think the mts. to the West get more snow, but I am not certain. I've watched solid areas of precipatation along fronts (winter and Summer)from Ohio, which stretched from Buffalo, NY down to Southern PA lessen in intensity over the area. Often the fronts will dry so much over the area (starting around Elmira) that the Southern and Northern parts have no connecting precipitation and appear as two separate fronts. Further, I've seen Thunderstorms on a due East course from Western PA/NY drop South or lift North as they approach the snow-hole area. The area is also famed for getting into the dry slot of storms. Perhaps the big snowstorms I witnessed in the past with 24/34 inch snowfalls were the oddity and not the norm-it sure seems that way