Friday, January 6, 2017

Friday Morning: An Updated Look at the Weekend Storm

Good morning everyone. Most areas saw a nice white coating last night which does remind us it is in fact winter. Latest trends for our weekend storm have been to bring it more west which means there will be some impacts for areas near the coast on Saturday. As you all know I have been talking about this storm since Saturday so at least we will have something to show for it when its all said and done. To start off here is my snowfall forecast for Saturday..


Most areas do not see more than up to an inch, but close to the coast things get interesting. Extreme southern coastal NJ, DE, MD and especially the cape can see a nice moderate snowfall Saturday as this storm brushes by.

To show the shift, here was the model projection from yesterday morning..


And now 24 hrs later (current run)..


You can see a very big shift west and most models are all following this trend. It does not mean a big snowstorm for the I-95 but it does mean there now will be impacts near the coast.  

The reason this has come back west is due to the energy in the southern jet stream being sharper and stronger than originally modeled..


Thats all for now lets see what last second trends evolve and I will have an update out tonight. For now I feel good with the snow map I have as it is a compromise between many different models.

3 comments:

  1. Hi Willy, So the 2017 snow season is under way. We got about 1/2 inch last night in the Bloomfield area. The global models and media forecasters were getting more bullish as yesterday progressed, suggesting up to 2 inches here. Ditto for NAM, the "intermediate" tool. But the hourly HRRR short-term model didn't seem very impressed once evening came, it kept telling me that the flakes would be gone by morning commute time and wouldn't amount to more than 1/2 inch. Point for HRRR.

    Right now the globals and mesoscales suggest that tomorrow's storm will pretty much follow last night's track, staying outside the 40/70 benchmark. This one looks a bit stronger (it's gonna make life miserable around Atlanta and up thru North Carolina, and coastal Jersey / Long Island may be shoveling a bit), but nothing much is brewing up around Greenland and the Maritimes, so it might be another fast track.

    What are you seeing lately from the telecon tea-leaves? NAO seems to go slightly positive into mid-month, and the EPO flips back to positive. Interestingly, the PNA gets out of its negative trend and goes somewhat positive -- some changes coming up around Alaska, I take it; but at the same time, the WPO goes from negative to positive. So the Pacific support for an eastern trough and a cold pattern in the east looks mixed at best. The MJO is sleeping. The CFS runs for the next 5 weeks seem to indicate average to slightly above average temps here in NJ (after this week's cold wave), and average to slightly below average precip.

    There is one thing that I see right now that might make you cold and snow fans perk up. There seems to be a polar stratospheric temperature spike going on right now at 10mb. I also see the Arctic Osc projections going from neutral / slightly positive to quite negative in the 3rd week of the month. So maybe there will be more cold shots, although if the zonal flow trends continue, perhaps they will be 2 to 4 day events like we've seen so far this season.

    But we're still not quite 1/3 into the season yet, still time for a different pattern to emerge, a lot can still happen. Lots of fun yet to come, no doubt. Jim G

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  2. Jim,

    You have more confidence than I do, I guess I've seen too many winters without decent snowstorms in my area despite all the ingredients being, "on the table". I do hope this year will be different, odds are they will not be.

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  3. Yea, IIRC, you're in the NY Southern Tier near Elmira. Too far east for lake-effect snow, too far west for the coastal storms. Not exactly ski country! Jim G

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