Friday, January 20, 2017

Friday Discussion: Rain Storm Next Week, Cold to Follow

Good morning. As we are about half way through our mild spell things continue to look on track for at least colder than normal conditions to return by next weekend through at least the 1st week of February. This of course will bring the chance to see the white stuff again but I can not hone in on any opportunities at this time. We are going to have to leave this one up to mother nature. I am interested to see if this upcoming pattern change is brief or is able to lock in. If it comes and goes, then the winter can pretty much be written off. I am not ready to say that at this time.

Early next week we have a very dynamic storm system that will bring rain and winds Monday and Tuesday. There is the shot that if this storm deepens enough and takes the right track, the mountains of New England see a nice wet snowfall from this. If you do not live near a ski area I would not be counting on seeing any snow from this system. MAYBE on the back end if everything aligned perfectly. The fact of the matter is, there just is no cold air ahead of it.

This storm is the result of an upper level area of low pressure barreling under a big block or ridge of high pressure in eastern Canada seen below..

As we then approach next weekend the cold comes..

This will bring us into a clipper pattern for a few days where disturbances can dive down from Canada and give the shot at light snow..

If one of these disturbances was to dive in very sharp and redevelop off the coast then a bigger storm would form.  Again, we just have to wait and see how all this evolves.

As we then enter the very long range, we need to see if this colder and stormier pattern holds. Right now models are not fully convinced on this and revert back to the default winter pattern this year of storminess in the west and a mixed bag in the east..

This is the very long range so we will have to see if this locks back in or corrects to maintain the initial colder pattern we see. My gut feeling is that its a blend of the two. February could be snowier than January but that isn't saying much. At this point if we get to an average winter snowfall wise, its a win in my book. Lets see what happens. Like I said let mother nature surprise us.


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  2. In my opinion we are in a "salvage winter" mode. It's too late to be called a good winter, even if cold and snow arrives with a vengeance. That is reserved for snow and cold on an almost continuous basis starting from late November. It was probably foolish to think of an ideal winter following on the heels of a powerful El Nino. I do believe next year will be better, especially if a weak "Modoki" El Nino develops as a couple of forecasters are eluding too

    1. We def are at this point. Its normal to have variations even in a good season but usually its more than one round. For example, it may be a snowy December mild Jan then snowy Feb. So far we have had barely any winter. At this point we need to hope for one storm or one 1-2 week period with the chance at a few moderate snow events. IT can def happen but for this season to now be above average it would take a historical run. I wouldn't be putting my money on that at this time