Thursday, December 8, 2016

Thursday Morning: Arctic Air Closing in Fast, Snow Monday?

Good morning. As my 12-18th target period closes in rapidly we have a lot to track. The arctic front moves in later today and by later tonight and tomorrow we all will feel the big chill....
Temps crash into the 20's tonight and will only reach the 30's tomorrow with brisky winds and wind chills in the 20's. That cold air locks for the weekend into early next week. If you aren't convinced yet, this air mass will convince you winter is here!

On the heals of this air mass we need to closely watch an approaching storm system on Monday that will likely at least start winery in nature.

Heres what we know:

Dense cold air will be in place in front of it Sunday night...

A low pressure system will form in the Ohio valley and try to slide east Monday morning into this cold air...

The million dollar question is will it rain, snow, mix? Of course that all depends on the track and intensity of the low pressure system. At the very least, this will start as frozen precip for most areas Sunday night due to that arctic air mass in place. 

This is where things gets interesting...

You simply don't just shove arctic air away easily, especially an air mass like the one that is about to move through. That is leaving me concerned that ice will be a big issue for parts of the mid Atlantic as low level cold air is hard to move. 

For areas more north such as north central PA, NNJ, and southern New England accumulating snow needs to be taken seriously. My main focus is on the high pressure system ahead of this approaching storm seen below..

This high pressure system holds in the cold air. For its projected positioning I would expect snow for all of New England and the chance at all snow for the northern Mid-Atlantic. 

Although the models have been all over the place with how they develop this storm, they all somewhat agree on where this HP system will be. 

Because of this, I would be surprised if a solution like the Canadian model verified with snow changing to rain even in southern New England..

If this misses I think its more because the wave of low pressure gets suppressed due to the cold air.

A lot will change next few days be sure to check in daily for updates on this evolving situation!

And if it wasn't enough round two of  arctic air approaches end of next week with more potential mischief on tap!....

Stay tuned!


  1. Now the forecast is for snow every single god forsaken day after next week. Even if it snows just a few inches a day everyday it'll pile up like crazy if it stays cold enough. If the trend continues all winter long, which I hope to god it doesn't, we won't have slightly above average snow but instead we will have significantly above average snow like we did in 13-14,14-15 (both years it was almost twice the average in NYC in the 50 inch range).

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