Saturday, December 10, 2016

Saturday Morning: Updated Forecast for Sunday Night-Monday

Good morning. As new data comes in, I have adjusted my preliminary forecast to hone in on the final details behind Sunday night's storm system. Latest data has made me shift amounts lower and more to the north. Overall, this event looks like it will be weaker than initially modeled... 

Summary:

  • Light snow breaks out Sunday night in northern areas (light blue, dark blue)
    • To the south precipitation arrives later and as a mixed bag in pink zone and plain rain (very light if any) in the green zone
  • Any accumulations in the pink and blue zone happen by early morning before a change over to ice/rain
  • When it is all said and done there will be travel impacts ranging from minor to moderate as you head north from the pink into the dark blue zone
  • The storm should be gone by late morning for most areas

Latest model guidance has weakened the disturbance causing this storm. Images below show the modeled disturbance from yesterday (top) vs today's projection..





Small difference but big outcome. Notice how in the bottom image the energy is more spread out. This causes a storm that is weaker and further north....

Old model run at the surface...


New run...

Notice the low pressure center is weaker and further north. This brings the thermal gradient further north as well. The result is a weaker system with less snowfall.

At the end of the day this does not look to be a big deal. I do urge caution however, we still have 36 hours to go. Things can still trend stronger. I will keep an eye on this.

Next update tonight. 

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