Here is a Summary:
- Chilly air maintains itself through mid week before a shot of arctic air plunges temperatures by the end of this week
- Expect highs in the mid to high 40's this week with temps droping to the low to mid 30's for highs this weekend as an arctic front moves through
- On Tuesday afternoon a storm system approaches from our south west
- Snow will break out in interior areas including extreme NW NJ and northern PA into NY.
- Several inches possible in the interior with this system
- As the arctic cold front moves in later this week, we need to keep our eye on some snow to break out Thursday and Friday
- Snow squalls are possible
- Following the big chill later this week, we then need to keep our eyes on a storm system to develop early next week on the back of the arctic air mass
- Storm would likely be more wintry in nature
So lets take a look at models...
The storm system tomorrow afternoon...
I like this projection of where it shows the rain vs snow. We really need to keep a close on on NW NJ at the higher elevations as there could be a surprise in store there. Other areas to the south a cold rain will fall.
The arctic plunge then comes in end of this week. These are temperature departure from averages in C...
Very very impressive. This is cold air guys. Expect highs 15 degrees below normal with is low 30's to high 20's for spots in the interior. Wind chills will be in the low 20's for many areas this weekend.
As this arctic front moves in, we need to watch for snow showers or squalls (intense short bursts of snow) Thursday and Friday..
We will watch this closely to see if any low pressure system want to spin up along this front. At this time I think its just snow showers.
Following this weekend, we then turn to early next week as a storm could form on the back of this arctic front..
Do not pay attention to rain/snow nature of this image or even the position of the low. This will be very shaky and shift after every model run. I show this because storm love to form on the back of arctic outbreaks, so this is something we need to watch closely for early next week. As I said over the weekend, the 12-18th time period is the target zone for first snows in the big cities.
If anything, there has been a trend for troughs to correct a little more east as a long range forecast period approaches. For example, here is the projected upper air pattern for Thursday with the arctic front approaching..
This was the old model projection from last week....
The trough is more east on the new image (top) and as a result we have arctic air on tap.
Looking ahead to early next week, it will be interesting to see if this corrects at all to bring a storm system through with cold air ahead of it..
Just speculation for now. In any event regardless of the outcome, the cold air is here to stay for the most part, and naturally I believe snow will follow. If it doesn't then that will be a bad sign for the rest of the winter. The DNA of this season lies in the next 2-3 weeks!
Fun times ahead!