Tuesday, December 27, 2016

Major New England Snowstorm Possible: Details Still Emerging


6pm update: No video tonight, my thoughts have not changed much. Tomorrow AM will have snow map out with video included. This is not a mid-Atlantic storm it will hit ME, NH and parts of VT and Mass. I am interested to see if there are any eastern trends that develop tonight that would limit snowfall. 

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Good morning everyone. I am off this week from work so I have a little more time to focus on the weather. I mentioned on Saturday that we had to keep an eye out of storm development late this week for New England. Latest model data continues to come in and it indicates this storm can in fact form and become a real threat.

Here is a summary:


  • A low pressure area is expected to form along an approaching front on Thursday
  • This low pressure system is projected by some models to rapidly intensify as it tracks just off the cost of Long Island into the Gulf of Maine
  • Depending on the actual intensity of this low, it is likely that heavy snow will break out for areas in New England
    • This includes most of MA, VT, NH, ME and some of CT
      • Heavy accumulations possible
    • Further to the south snow can fall in NE PA, NW NJ and SE CT
      • Accumulations can range from light to moderate in these areas
  • The time frame for this projected storm is Thursday afternoon into Friday.
  • This has the POTENTIAL to be a major coastal storm for New England

There remains a spread in the models but this is my first map breaking the situation down..



Right now this is a very difficult forecast. The short range North American model and the European model insist this storm blows up off the coast while the flagship American Model (GFS) is not as impressed with the coastal development. What else is new?

My forecast comes from my interpretation of all the data along with historical comparisions. That leads me to belive that this storm will be a compromise between the aggressive short range American model (NAM) and the GFS. The map above is a weighted blend of each.

So lets take a look at what is going on. Looking at the most agressive scenerio first, the NAM model rapidly intensifies a storm due to amplified short wave energy at 18000ft..



Looking above we have the more amped up solution on the left (NAM model) and less impressive situation on left (GFS). Just know that the more sharp the trough is the stronger the storm is. 

Here is the surface projections..

NAM model..


GFS..



I will have a video out breaking this down along with updated model data tonight at 5pm.

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