Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Wednesday Video Update: High Energy Pattern Heading Into December

Good morning everyone. The video below discusses the action the weather pattern will bring over the next two weeks into December. Here is a summary:

  • Seasonal transition of the weather pattern continues to be underway
  • This means that colder stormier weather is on tap as we head into December starting in interior New England working its way down to the Mid-Atlantic.
  • We will have our first storm system sweep through the area late this weekend
    • Rain for areas near the coast with interior snows developing in NY State, VT, and possibly parts of PA
    • Several inches possible in higher terrain
  • All eyes then turn to Thanksgiving week where conditions are looking ripe for another storm system to develop
    • Rain would be possible around the Thanksgiving time frame for most major areas with another shot at snow in Interior New England
    • We will have to keep a very close on this!
  • December then opens up with a weather pattern favorable for more storminess 
    • It is at this time where I expect many of the first snows for fall for most major areas
  • The chances of a White Christmas are starting to gain traction- this will not be like last year!

Enjoy the video...


  1. Hey Willy, that NAO / AO situation certainly is impressive for the next 2 weeks. Lots of blocking, haven't seen that in a while! I wish the Jets' line could block like that! So yea, winter is coming on, and yea, no El Nino this year. Troughs and cold shots definitely on the way! But . . . always a "but" in these things . . . the continental flows and jet streams still look pretty progressive overall on the models, the big trough kinks are temporary so far. As you know, there isn't much Pacific support thus far for cold air flows into the east, with the PNA and EPO just drifting around neutral for the time being. The MJO has been in the 7/8 phase lately, which supports a colder trend here -- but it's doing so right in the midst of our temporary warm spell, and then heading back to the neutral zone. Mostly just a bit player, unless it amplifies something else (like the ENSO). So it looks like it's the North Atlantic and Arctic that you are counting on to drive a big winter trend this season. And yea, that big NAO / AO dip does look like a preview of things to come. But then again, I see that Greenland and Iceland have been relatively warm lately, but models look for that to change by month's end -- the upper PV might shuttle some cryogenic Siberian air in that direction. So, does the big negative NAO then hold up? And despite all the Arctic surface temp warmth (relative), the polar stratosphere isn't percolating much yet. So, my own jury is still out on this being a really memorable winter driven by the North Atlantic block and a weak PV. No doubt we are in for at least a typical winter, although the potential for a long season with extreme events (big snow storms, long / deep cold waves) still needs more data, IMHO. Let's see where we are a month from now, see how the Arctic SSW / loose Polar Vortex situation is developing. Just my < $.02. Jim G, getting out the heavy coats and hats.

    1. Yes couldn't agree more with your last statement. A month from now we will know the tale of this winter. If we simply waste this blocking I will loose confidence fast. However, the polar vortex shows no signs of strengthening which should help the AO stay negative. Also, as we get into December just slightly below normal temps will do the trick and if anything can give us the better chance at more storms as there would be less suppression. Always fun when you got competing air masses in December. So basically, all we need is this pac jet to weaken a little then the seasonal transition aided by the NAO should give us just enough to see some of the white stuff. Remember tho I am expecting the most snow relative to averages to be up in New England this year based on my winter forecast. Our area should see a lot of back and forth. euro weeklies look good. Hopefully the post Thanksgiving period gives us some fun.