Tuesday, November 29, 2016

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: Critical Two Week Period Coming Up

Good morning. As I mentioned yesterday, the first day of Meteorological winter (December 1st) is two days away. This means that the next few weeks will be critical in terms of how this weather pattern develops vs what was/is expected from a forecasting standpoint. To review, in my Winter Outlook I mentioned the Northeast, particularly New England would see a very active winter. The Mid-Atlantic would be back and forth as some storms gave rain and some snow. 

So how do things look? Well, I am not too concerned about shots of cold air filtering into the region as there is a lot of support for that on the models over the next month. I also am not concerned about storm activity as many storms will move through the country. However, the million dollar question is will these two factors come together properly to cause more snow than rain for the northeast. My confidence is still high for New England in that regard. For the Mid-Atlantic, we need to wait and see. 

Lets take a look at next 2 weeks....

Rain moves through today and tomorrow with milder temps..

In the wake of this storm system cold air then follows as we end the week through early next week...

We then enter a very interesting period. With this cold air in place there is the chance a storm system develops early next week. The European is the most aggressive with the storm development...

The European cuts a storm system to our west but has just enough high pressure up in Canada filtering in cold air to possibly result in a heavy snowfall for interior New England Monday and Tuesday. Rain for other areas in this scenario.

The GFS is nothing like the European and has nothing...

The reason for the big difference is the upper atmosphere. The European model consolidates energy ejecting from the southwest while the GFS does not. The image below shows the stark difference in the upper atmosphere....European left, GFS right. Notice how the GFS has a ridge of high pressure where the European has the storm system. 

What does all this mean?

It means the models are struggling to handle the weather pattern in transition. There will be a storm next week its just a matter of when and where. It will all come down to the strength of the hp in Canada and if it can be held in place. A big factor in this is the strength of the low pressure system off the coast of eastern Canada. The stronger this is the more likely it is to lock in high pressure. I drew a diagram below....

This image from the European shows a stronger vortex than the gfs in this location. This causes more air to come together where I drew the yellow lines. At the surface this causes stronger high pressure which locks in all that cold air ahead of the storm.

The GFS model has this vortex more diluted and less organized. Thus, it has the high pressure weaker.

Pretty complicated stuff but overall this is nothing more than models trying to sort out the weather pattern. Regardless of if its mostly rain or New England snows next week..cold air again follows as we move through mid Dec...

When this is all said and done we might have to see a little more rain before we see snow but by week 2-3 of December the winter season should really start to take over. It is at this time that the Mid-Atlantic should star to get into the mix with winter weather. 

If that does not happen then well we might have to reevaluate what is going on. No one wants shots of rain followed by cold. Lets not jump to that conclusion at this time.

More later this week. 

Monday, November 28, 2016

Monday Morning: Will The Rubber Hit the Road This Winter?

Good morning. I hope everyone had a nice Thanksgiving weekend. I am pressed for time this morning but will have a very detailed post out by tomorrow morning on the next two weeks. This is a critical time to determine how this weather pattern will evolve as the winter season gets officially underway. I have discussed my ideas in terms of what I expect to happen, now its a matter of will it happen.

This week warms up as a storm passes to our west midweek. This causes rain tomorrow and Wednesday with mild temps. Things clear by the end of the week with seasonable temps. The next cool down then comes for the weekend into next week. 

What happens next? Will snow follow? More rain?

Find out when I break it all down in my next post tomorrow.

Enjoy the day. 

Wednesday, November 23, 2016

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecast

Short video below breaks down what to expect over the next few days. Here is an executive summary:

  • Chilly conditions through the next few days
    • Temperatures in the high 40's and low 50's for most spots
  • Some showers will work their way into the region on Thanksgiving with snow to the north
    • Nothing significant expected, a few flakes might fly in northern NJ area
  • Another weather system then approaches for the weekend on Saturday and Sunday
    • Nothing major Mid-Atlantic areas, just a few chilly showers
    • Up north however we need to watch this very closely
      • There is a chance this storm system lingers off the coast and produces snow for New England areas
      • Multiple inches are possible especially at higher elevations
  • Big storm cuts to our west middle of next week
    • Rain for most areas
  • In the wake of that storm we need to keep a close eye on the first week of December for a storm that might be more wintry in nature
    • More on that as the days go on.
Enjoy the video!

Monday, November 21, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: What Will the Next Few Weeks Look Like?

Good morning, hope everyone enjoyed seeing a few flakes over the weekend. As I mentioned in my last post, that was quite the front. I think it surprised everyone and reminds us that winter is around the corner. 

So today is November 21st. Meteorological winter is 10 days away and throughout this 10 day period we will continue to see a transition in the season take place. So what does this mean?

A very active pattern with a parade of unsettled weather events:

  • More back and forth weather 
    • cold days, followed by seasonable days
  • Snow mainly focusing New England higher elevations
    • Next few rounds of unsettled weather events should target mainly New England with winter precipitation
    • Further to the south expect more in the form of rain but with the occasional chance at flakes to fly
  • Thanksgiving day looks to be chilly with the chance of showers with highs in the upper 40's for big city areas
    • The weekend will also be chilly with the chance at showers on Saturday
    • Some snow should fall up north 
  • I do not expect any widespread snow events close to the big cities until at least the last few days of November if not as far as the 2nd week of December. 
So lets take a look...

We currently have a very cold air mass over our area. This will linger the next few days and keep things on the cold side with highs in the 40's...

As we approach Thanksgiving a weak low pressure system moves into the area..

Snow will fall to the north and maybe a few flakes mix in for NNJ and southern New England at the start. Nothing major expected.

Another system then comes through on Saturday..

This also should cause snow to fly in the interior. We have to watch this system closely as if it really wants to strengthen itself off the coast then we could see snow fall throughout the whole region as opposed to mainly rain. 

So as you can see here, the weather keeps throwing jabs at us through Thanksgiving weekend. The question now is will a big storm form in a pattern like this?

Lets take a look at the big picture in the week following Thanksgiving..

We have a pattern that is characterized by a big block of high pressure to our north and evidence of some ridging off the coast of California. This forces chilly air to the south over the entire country and creates areas for energy to consolidate into storms. In fact, some pretty big storms can form as we get into the 1st week of December. But will they be snow?

Again, I still think its the interior that is the focus here. I say that because we do not have a major key ingredient for a mid-atlantic or big city snowstorm which is a ridge of high pressure in the western United States. Sure it can snow without it, but the chances are smaller. What is more likely are storms that cut to our west, run into high pressure then redevelop off the coast. In these scenarios it is often interior New England that gets the heavy snow. 

Also, it still is early in the season so the air masses are not as cold as say early January where a pattern like this would mean more snow closer to the coast. 

So the bottom line is this. Winter is coming but it starts to the north and works it way south. As I mentioned above I predict the first wide spread snowfall for areas near the coast might need to wait till 2nd week of December. That is more than normal and in fact would give us a great start to winter!

By the way, I wasn't kidding when I said snow in New England. Check out project accumulations next 10 days for the mountains....

Ski season should be off to a good start. 

More this week as details evolve..stay tuned!

Sunday, November 20, 2016

Let it Snow!

What an unbelievable front that is coming through right now. Temps throughout the state have crashed into the 30s from the high 60s! Snow is breaking out everywhere. in long valley nj at 1k feet 3 inches is reported as of 1am.

Even thundersnow has been reported!! This is due to the extreme difference in air masses as cold air rushes in. This is a direct injection from the north....

Welcome to winer guys! If my predictions are correct, we are just getting started as we head into December.

More details Monday!

Friday, November 18, 2016

Friday Morning Note: Snow On Tap for Interior

Good morning. Well flakes will be flying in the interior later this weekend as a storm system works its way into our area from the west. Here is the latest snowfall projection from the GFS model..

You can see enhanced areas of snow especially near the lake regions. I do expect some enhancement there due to the wind directions causing some local spots to pile up some impressive accumulations.

Here is the GFS model for Sunday eve...

No snow near big cities in this case but this is a reminder that winter is coming! I recommend you check out my video from Wednesday for more of an explanation. I will be updating those thoughts over the next few days. Things look to be on track. 

Wednesday, November 16, 2016

Wednesday Video Update: High Energy Pattern Heading Into December

Good morning everyone. The video below discusses the action the weather pattern will bring over the next two weeks into December. Here is a summary:

  • Seasonal transition of the weather pattern continues to be underway
  • This means that colder stormier weather is on tap as we head into December starting in interior New England working its way down to the Mid-Atlantic.
  • We will have our first storm system sweep through the area late this weekend
    • Rain for areas near the coast with interior snows developing in NY State, VT, and possibly parts of PA
    • Several inches possible in higher terrain
  • All eyes then turn to Thanksgiving week where conditions are looking ripe for another storm system to develop
    • Rain would be possible around the Thanksgiving time frame for most major areas with another shot at snow in Interior New England
    • We will have to keep a very close on this!
  • December then opens up with a weather pattern favorable for more storminess 
    • It is at this time where I expect many of the first snows for fall for most major areas
  • The chances of a White Christmas are starting to gain traction- this will not be like last year!

Enjoy the video...

Monday, November 14, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Knocking on Winters Door

Good morning. As we have been patently waiting on what this winter season will entail, more details are emerging by the day. I mentioned in my last video how models are really struggling to figure out this seasonal transitions and forecasting the long range would need to include a variety of methods as a result. I also mentioned that we need to see winter develop in December this year based on my winter forecast. Today I am gaining confidence that process is continuing to evolve.

Here is a summary of my post below:

  • Tranquil upcoming few days is followed by a storm system that will sweep across the country later this week
    • Snow will fall in the northern plains and New England might also see some snow Sunday night if this system redevelops off the coast.
  • Following this storm, the flood gates begin to break towards colder and stormier weather from the Thanksgiving through mid December time period
    • This idea which was first proposed in my winter outlook is gaining support in model land
    • Seasonal drivers such as a negative arctic oscillation and negative north Atlantic oscillation  are projected to develop as we end the month which supports this idea
  • The pacific jet stream will continue to influence our pattern but other factors will offset some of its effects. 
    • Translation: a lot of back and forth weather is to be expected which should continue to be the theme as winter progresses
  • First snowfalls for many areas can occur by mid December.

So lets dive in and take a look at what is currently going on..

A big storm system is expected to drop snow in the northern plains midweek...

This storm will run into a lot of high pressure over Canada which will cause it to slide east by this weekend. As this occurs left over energy out in the Atlantic from a previous system will try to consolidate with it. This all can occur because the jet stream will be "blocked" in the Atlantic. This means that an area of high pressure causes it to buckle and slow down. I show this below..

This results in a possible redevelopment of a storm off the east coast which could result in interior snows Sunday and Monday..

In the wake of this storm system, things look like they really want to start waking up the week of Thanksgiving. We have an atmospheric pattern developing which will feature a lot of high pressure over the pole and Greenland (-AO and -NAO). When a pattern like this occurs cold has a better chance of filtering down from the pole into North America. Combine that with a pacific jet stream that still wants to stay active and you get a battlefield of weather over the United States. This means a lot of energy comes into the  united states and has the chance to combine with cold air. 

The image below shows what I am talking about..

This image shows cold and warm air (blue and green). This illustrates the potential for cold air to filter down into America and storm systems to develop as Pacific energy interacts with this cold air. Now if the Pacific influence is too strong it overrides everything else. However, if we get the right mix of cold air filtering in from the pole and with a low to moderate pacific influence then we will have a lot of weather we will be tracking.

Just for fun here is the long range GFS showing what a pattern like this can result in. I would not take this literally and understand this is just for illustration purposes..

Notice a lot of energy on the field with multiple storm systems. As we enter December I would not be surprised to see a pattern similar to this develop. As long as we keep the pressure high over the pole and Greenland, in my opinion it is game on!

Long term models hinting that will occur as seen with the red colors below. This matches the expectations from my Winter Outlook..

If we get that to maintain itself into December......

Thats all for now more will be coming this week. 

Thursday, November 10, 2016

Thursday Night Pattern Update: Seasonal Transition Taking Place, No Reason to Panic Winter Lovers

My video below is a higher level discussion on our evolving weather pattern. Here is the bottom line for those of you who don't care about the forecasting details:

  • The atmosphere is currently is a transition phase
    • This means spurts of warmer and colder air as we head into late November
    • This also means the long range weather models will be all over the place flipping from warm to cold vice versa
  • Second half of November could be chilly but not as cold as originally thought
    • Yes I will admit when I am wrong
  • Do not be suprised to see a big storm in the eastern 1/3 before month end
    • This does not mean snow but it does mean an evolving pattern
  • As we enter December, expect a colder pattern to take hold
    • If this does not occur that could be a red flag on my winter forecast
  • Overall I think things are on track
Enjoy the Video...

Updated Thoughts Out Tonight 8PM

Pattern update via video

Wednesday, November 9, 2016

Wednesday Morning: Late Night Means No Post, Long Range Forecast Challenged

Considering the election ran till 3 am last night I will not have a post today. I will tell you guys however that there are major challenges that have surfaced in the long range forecast. When I say long range I mean from week 2 and beyond. The models have really been all over the place and we have many conflicting signals. I am trying to crunch the new data and determine how warm or cold things will be from say the 25th of November through the 1st two weeks of Dec. I would be lying if I said the pattern was evolving as expected given this new data. I am not ready however to make a final conclusion until I have the time to study all the factors.

I will have my thoughts out either late tonight or tomorrow morning. Stay tuned. 

Tuesday, November 8, 2016

Election Day

No post today. After we get through this election tonight I will have a video out tomorrow morning. Very challenging forecast peroid as we move past thanksgiving into Christmas..will be fun to share my thoughts with you guys. Everything else is on track.

Monday, November 7, 2016

Monday Morning Pattern Update: Colder 2nd Half on Track

Good morning. I am pressed for time this morning so I will give a quick update on the evolution of our pattern. I will have another video out as well early this week to explain in greater detail. Here is the bottom line:

  • Pattern change to colder weather on track for 2nd half of November
  • We feel the first signs of this over the weekend where temperatures will plummet to around 10 degrees below normal Saturday and Sunday
    • This means highs in the low 40s for many spots and 30's for New England
    • Some areas in the interior will see snow showers as the front moves through Saturday
  • Following this weekend, the pattern will continue to evolve and average out to cooler than normal in the east with varying shots of colder than normal air

So lets take a look. Here are 5000 ft temperature departures for this upcomming weekend..

Notice the area of below normal over the north east. I will go into more detail on how this evolves tomorrow.

Areas in the interior see show showers as this air mass approaches...

Maybe areas closer to coast squeeze out a few, we will have to see.

Check out projected temperatures on Saturday afternoon...

Following the passage of this air mass, the pattern then amps up again towards the end of the ten day period with a ridge out west and toughing in the east..

The image above is valid the 17th. Notice the big negative or colder air pocket in the east. This can end up being a storm that effects the eastern 1/3. No, I do not expect a widespread snowstorm. Like ive mentioned however, up in New England ski areas, they could see the white stuff. 

So we have a lot of changes on the way. Like anything else it will not be a direct transition. We will have cold days like this weekend followed by moderating temps followed by more cold days as we close out this month. When it is all said and done I like what I see as this pattern evolves into the start of meteorological winter on December 1st. 

More on all of this tomororw

Saturday, November 5, 2016

Saturday Morning Note

Not much to comment on. We will see how the ideas in my last video evolve. I will have an update on Monday.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

Thursday Morning Video Discussion: Big Pattern Change 2nd Half of November

Video below discusses what I believe will be a major pattern change for the 2nd half of November (14th on). The ideas supporting colder than normal temperatures with storminess are gaining traction. Still early for any news making snow in Mid Atlantic, but up in New England maybe we can get those ski areas off to a good start! Enjoy the video. 

Wednesday, November 2, 2016