Just for fun my guess would be that you'll be calling for a cold and snowy winter. Every long range forecast including accu-weather and the farmer's almanac are calling for cold and snowy conditions. Siberian snow cover is very expansive and (I think) the rate of expansion was high. I hope it isn't as bad as 2013-2014 or 2014-2015.
I'm going to second that guess! As to Siberian snow, the Rutgers Snow Lab site for Oct 17 indicates negative anomalies (less than expected snow) in far east Siberia and Alaska, positive anomalies in southern Siberia (near Mongolia and Kazakhstan), and pretty much normal in central and northern Siberia along the Arctic Ocean. So go figure.
Long term weather forecasting is an interesting thing (simultaneously both an art and a science), and Mister Willy seems as qualified to do it as most of the others who are putting these things out right now. Especially regarding the winter season, which Willy specializes in. But to keep things in context, all 3-month horizon forecasts are pretty tricky. The models are getting more sophisticated and skilled, and input data is getting better (with occasional set-backs when governments go thru belt-tightening phases), and human interpretation and understanding of long-term weather patterns is on an upward curve. But chaos theory and complexity theory both affirm that Nature still holds a lot of hidden cards -- or perhaps a better metaphor, some of Nature's key playing cards in the weather game haven't even been printed yet! So, hats off to you Willy for engaging in this exercise and sharing it with us in such great detail. But as with every long-term seasonal forecast, a grain or two of salt is not a bad thing. (Nonetheless, keep most of that salt ready for the upcoming snowy and icy mornings!) Jim G
Should be a interesting winter Jim. A lot of energy will be on the field and we will see how this all comes together. Early signs are promising for new England and northern mid atlantic. Hope you enjoyes outlook.
Just for fun my guess would be that you'll be calling for a cold and snowy winter. Every long range forecast including accu-weather and the farmer's almanac are calling for cold and snowy conditions. Siberian snow cover is very expansive and (I think) the rate of expansion was high. I hope it isn't as bad as 2013-2014 or 2014-2015.
ReplyDeleteI'm going to second that guess! As to Siberian snow, the Rutgers Snow Lab site for Oct 17 indicates negative anomalies (less than expected snow) in far east Siberia and Alaska, positive anomalies in southern Siberia (near Mongolia and Kazakhstan), and pretty much normal in central and northern Siberia along the Arctic Ocean. So go figure.
ReplyDeleteLong term weather forecasting is an interesting thing (simultaneously both an art and a science), and Mister Willy seems as qualified to do it as most of the others who are putting these things out right now. Especially regarding the winter season, which Willy specializes in. But to keep things in context, all 3-month horizon forecasts are pretty tricky. The models are getting more sophisticated and skilled, and input data is getting better (with occasional set-backs when governments go thru belt-tightening phases), and human interpretation and understanding of long-term weather patterns is on an upward curve. But chaos theory and complexity theory both affirm that Nature still holds a lot of hidden cards -- or perhaps a better metaphor, some of Nature's key playing cards in the weather game haven't even been printed yet! So, hats off to you Willy for engaging in this exercise and sharing it with us in such great detail. But as with every long-term seasonal forecast, a grain or two of salt is not a bad thing. (Nonetheless, keep most of that salt ready for the upcoming snowy and icy mornings!) Jim G
Should be a interesting winter Jim. A lot of energy will be on the field and we will see how this all comes together. Early signs are promising for new England and northern mid atlantic. Hope you enjoyes outlook.
Delete