Thursday, October 6, 2016

Thursday Hurricane Update:Matthew Makes Bee-line For Florida

*WINTER OUTLOOK 2017 WILL BE  RELEASED ON WEDNESDAY OCTOBER 19TH*



Good morning. It is now becoming likely Matthew hits the east coast of Florida as a Cat 3 hurricane early tomorrow. Most model guidance brings the eye close enough to shore to cause big issues along the eastern coast. The storm will then scrape its way up towards the coast of Georgia and South Carolina likely weakening to a cat 1 before curving and lingering out to sea. 

This looks to be an historical event for down there and I do not say that in a good way. I have concerns that we will see damage. 

Lets take a look at the storm currently..



You can see how the eye is reforming  and it is now over the Bahama Islands. Current wind speeds are at 115mph gusting over 140 mph! 

Models are all taking this in striking distance of Florida..



National Hurricane Center has put coast on high alert for Major Hurricane..




Looking at the wind projections and tracks of a few models you can see how bad this could be..

HWRF Model,,



GFS..



The European looks similar to both of these with projected winds! FYI the light purple and pink colors are winds over 100 mph.

The storm then works its way up to Georgia and the Carolina's Sat and Sunday..



It remains to be seen how much strength this storm has by the time we get to this point. It will all depend on how much land Matthew interacts with. Regardless, a Cat 1 is very possible for these areas which also would bring with it impacts. We will hone in on this more tomorrow.

Heavy rainfall will also be an issues as seen below..



Lets hope this stays just offshore and doesn't make a direct impact. We are talking about a margin of error here of 50 miles! That means this is just a wait and see!

More later tonight around 8pm as this storm approaches Florida. Stay tuned. 

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