Friday, September 2, 2016

Friday Morning Storm Update: Updated Forecast Map Will Be Released Tonight

Good morning everybody. As more data keeps coming in I will be updating my preliminary thoughts from yesterday. I am going to wait till early this evening to make the first tweak to my map. Overall, I really do not think much will change aside from really trying to nail now how far inland that rain shield gets (folks more than 50 miles inland might see no rain at all).  The primary concern with this forecast is how bad things really will get for the coastal areas. I will show you below the difference 30 miles in track makes for wind impacts on the coast.

Here is a summary of my latest thoughts:

  • Hurricane Hermine (seen below) is on track to work its way just off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend
    • Impacts would be felt mostly Sunday and into Monday

  • The million dollar question is how close does this storm really get to the shoreline
  • As stands, my concerns mainly lie with the beach areas as I expect high winds, rough surf, and heavy rain
  • Current modeling is way too close for comfort
    • Some models keep this far enough offshore to not cause any major threat but others still have heavy rain and winds at the coast gusting above tropical storm force
    • I do not want to jump around until I see everything come in today
This was initial forecast..

Updated National Hurricane Center Map..

Here is an example of how close of a call this is in terms of impacts. The latest gfs model is projecting these wind gusts for Sunday...

Those are gusts above 55mph on the coast. You can see how a difference in 30 miles east or west on this track makes a huge difference with this storm. That is why it is important not to jump back and forth on every model run. 

In terms of rainfall, I like the average of what the GFS is showing...

Notice the sharp cutoff in rainfall. That will occur, it is just a matter of if it is a little more east or west than what you see above.

Remember, nothing is set in stone yet with this system. Hermine definitely has a few more tricks up her sleeve for our area- for better or for worse...

Updated forecast map up later today. Thanks for reading. 

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