Here is a summary of my latest thoughts:
- Hurricane Hermine (seen below) is on track to work its way just off the Mid Atlantic coast this weekend
- Impacts would be felt mostly Sunday and into Monday
- The million dollar question is how close does this storm really get to the shoreline
- As stands, my concerns mainly lie with the beach areas as I expect high winds, rough surf, and heavy rain
- Current modeling is way too close for comfort
- Some models keep this far enough offshore to not cause any major threat but others still have heavy rain and winds at the coast gusting above tropical storm force
- I do not want to jump around until I see everything come in today
This was initial forecast..
Updated National Hurricane Center Map..
Here is an example of how close of a call this is in terms of impacts. The latest gfs model is projecting these wind gusts for Sunday...
Those are gusts above 55mph on the coast. You can see how a difference in 30 miles east or west on this track makes a huge difference with this storm. That is why it is important not to jump back and forth on every model run.
In terms of rainfall, I like the average of what the GFS is showing...
Notice the sharp cutoff in rainfall. That will occur, it is just a matter of if it is a little more east or west than what you see above.
Remember, nothing is set in stone yet with this system. Hermine definitely has a few more tricks up her sleeve for our area- for better or for worse...
Updated forecast map up later today. Thanks for reading.