Thursday, July 28, 2016

Weekend Weather Update

Good morning. Quick update on the weekend. Rain will be in the cards for tomorrow as that front I mentioned earlier in the week drifts back north. An area of low pressure develops along that front and results in heavy rain tomorrow morning. There is still model disagreement on how long this rain lasts. I am leaning towards more of a morning event with a few showers possible tomorrow afternoon.

You can see in the model projection below how the atmosphere will be very ripe with moisture..

This is valid for early tomorrow morning..

Like I said I think by the afternoon this clears out and we just stay under cloudy skies with temperatures in the low to mid 80s.

For Saturday and Sunday few scattered showers possible as more impulses try to move along the frontal boundary. Mix of clouds and sun with temps in the mid 80s. 

Stay tuned for my upcoming post on what the Pacific Decadal Oscillation is and how it is one of the key factors I am eyeing for the Winter of 2017!

Monday, July 25, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Sizzling in The Heat

* I am going to start to throwing hints this week of factors I am looking at for this years winter forecast.  Stay tuned for a post on this around Wednesday*


Good morning everyone. Hot and humid will be the story of this week. Temperatures will be on the rise today along with humidity making for very unpleasant conditions out there. Here are a few highlights of the week:

  • Hot and humid day today with temps climbing into the mid 90's
    • Some showers and storms develop by later today as a front pushes through the area
  • Tuesday and Wednesday feature more hot weather with temperatures in the low 90s
    • The humidity will try to come down a little by Wednesday as drier air works its way into the region
  • On Thursday, stalled front to our south tries to work its way back north bringing with it more humidity and a potential shower or two 
  • This unsettled weather can build by Friday bringing the chance for a few waves of low pressure to ride along this stalled front
  • Things cool down into the 80s for the weekend with a few showers and storms possible 

You can see in image below the humid flow of air moving into our area today as indicated by the rising jet stream (red)...

By later this afternoon a frontal passage can cause some showers and storms..

Once this front moves through things will dry up for mid week but temps will still stay on the hot side.

Our next focus is the end of the week into the weekend as this front may work its way back northward causing unsettled weather. The models are trying to show a few waves of low pressure develop by Friday along this front..

This would result in more wide spread showers and storms on Friday but we still need to wait and see how this front behaves and where low pressure might develop. 

By the weekend things should cool down with overall nice conditions. 

Thanks for reading. 

Thursday, July 21, 2016

On vacation

Posting resumes next week. As we head into Aug, I am going to start to slowly honeing in on hints of what next winter might have in store.

Friday, July 15, 2016

Weekend Update..Some Relief

Posting from my cell phone since one of the storms last night knocked power out at my house.  Hot weather continues today but we will get a slight relief from the humidity as a weak cold front moves through. Still expect temps to be in the 90s today.

As I mentioned earlier in the week a frontal boundary stays stalled to our south over the weekend. This means things can get unsettled at times a shower or storm possible. Still expect mostly sunny skies w temps in high 80s to low 90s Saturday and high 80s Sunday. Humidity stays lower with a west to northwest wind.

Thanks for checking in.

Monday, July 11, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary: Comfortable and Calm to Warmer and Unsettled

Good morning. The heat from last week has broke and we are now undergoing a period of perfect summer weather. The next three days will feature calm and seasonable conditions with temperatures in the mid 80's. Expect things to feel comfortable with the humidity staying pretty tame during this period. You can see high pressure will be in control..

As we get into later in the day Wednesday, a warm front will start to creep into the area. This will result in warmer and humid conditions for Thursday and Friday with the chance at some showers and a few storms Thursday..

On Friday, a cold front moves through later in the day. This will cause more unsettled weather with some showers and storms also a possibility.

The interesting part of this forecast then is how this frontal boundary behaves this weekend. There are signs that this can stall just to our south then lift back northward. This means temperatures do not cool down much this weekend due to the front drifting back northward and bringing back in the warm air. You can see in the image below how lingering unsettled weather is possible along this drifting frontal boundary this weekend..

We are going to have to watch this closely and see how it effects the weekend forecast. At this time it appears the weekend is hot and humid with the chance at unsettled weather. No washouts in the cards at this time. 

Will update later this week. 

Tuesday, July 5, 2016

Tuesday Weekly Weather Discussion: Turning Up The Heat

Good morning. Hope everyone enjoy the holiday weekend. The weather ended up being perfect.

The one thing we will all notice this week is the arrival of summer heat. Starting with today, things will start to heat up today as this low pressure system that delivered rain last night slides off shore..

The jet stream then begins to rise over our area which brings in all the warm humid air from the south for Wednesday and Thursday. You can see this below as indicated by the red colors. 

Expect Wednesday to be sunny with highs in the low to mid 90s

Thursday is more of the same but expect more scattered clouds with a shower or storm possible. This is due to a few upper level disturbances that will swing through. I would expect to see a few storms with this but not widespread.

Heading into the weekend we will be dealing with a frontal boundary that moves into the area Saturday. Ahead of this front Friday will also be hot and humid.

 This front is associated with a low pressure system up to our north. The image below shows this..

We need to track the timing of this frontal passage but at this time there looks to be unsettled weather Friday night through Saturday. Expect showers and storms during this period.

This paves the way for beautiful weather Sunday. Low humidity and temperatures in the low 80's. 

Thanks for checking in. 

Friday, July 1, 2016

Holiday Weekend Update: Few Storms Today Then Perfect

Good morning. Hope everyone is ready for a beautiful holiday weekend. The weather will be picture perfect as we head into tomorrow through Monday. The only bump in the road is later this afternoon as a cold front fires up some storms..

These should approach late afternoon and clear out relatively quickly. 

In the wake of this front we are left with perfect weather for the weekend. Temperatures will be in the mid 80's with a northwest wind holding down humidity!