Monday, April 18, 2016

Monday Morning Weekly Weather Summary

Spring has spring! We will have more beautiful weather on tap this week with temperatures ranging from the 70's to 60's. The only chance at unsettled weather looks to be Thursday night into Friday morning as a front moves through the area. 

The warmest day will be today with temperatures in the mid to upper 70's for many areas. Temperatures will moderate however by Wednesday as a backdoor cold front moves into New England..


This will cool down things for Wednesday with temperatures only getting into the mid to low 60's with lows in the upper 30's to low 40's at night. Things then start to warm up again into the 70's ahead of an approaching front that moves into the area Thursday night..


Expect some periods of showers into Friday morning, with clearing by Friday afternoon.

As we get into the weekend, high pressure goes back into control resulting in sunny skies and temperatures in the mid to upper 60's. 

Here is a summary of temperatures all week..


Looking at the long range, there is evidence of warmer than normal conditions emerging for next week. This could mean wide spread 70's and even 80's for our area. You can see models are starting to show this possibility of warmer than normal temps. 


Will this be an omen for the summer to come? It looks that way. All signs are pointing to a hotter than normal summer this year. I will have a post out eventually discussing this in more detail, but below shows an average of what the long range models are showing for this summer..


Even more interesting another big topic in the meteorological community right now is the collapse of the current El Nino that has dominated our weather pattern and a transition to La Nina by next winter. Some data suggests this can be a powerful La Nina. It is too early to draw any conclusions yet, but this would have a big impact on the Winter 2017 forecast. 

You can see what the models are projecting in that region for this fall below with the colder than normal temps in the ENSO region I highlighted. 


Much different than our current state of the tropical pacific seen below!


More in the weeks to come! I will also be reviewing the Winter 2016 forecast. Obviously there where some shortfalls aside from the historical blizzard. 

Thanks for reading. 


3 comments:

  1. A strong La Nina not good for cold and snow in the Northeast US-correct?

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  2. A strong La Nina not good for cold and snow in the Northeast US-correct?

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    Replies
    1. Generally yes that is correct. This is something we are going to have to watch closely along with the PDO. Ususally la ninas go along with a negative pdo which is also not good for us. Right now the PDO is positive. If this stays positive then we got a shot.

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