Two things I want to focus on today:
- The brief warm up we will see over next few days
- The continuation of this active weather pattern through early March including a big storm threat for middle of next week
- The overall pattern to support a storm has high agreement among major model groups
- I will be covering the trends in this extensively over the next week.
First off, lets cover the boring part. The weather will moderate over the next few days as a ridge of high pressure builds over our area. This is nothing more than the overall pattern reloading for what I believe will be a cold and storm period end of Feb into early March.
However, so not fast. As we enter early next week things get very amplified again along the east. We will have a deep trough of low pressure develop south of the Aleutian Islands of Alaska. This will cause a ridge of high pressure to pump along the west coast which causes a deep through of low pressure to develop in the east. We are 8 days away, but signals from all the major model ensembles are very strong with the overall set up...
Above is the European weather ensemble. I marked out the important features. Please disregard my misspell of Aleutian lol. When we are trying to assess the threat of large storms we need to see certain features have high agreement among models. The three most important factors are: The deep trough south of the Aleutians which supports a big western ridge (centered over MT is key, supports eastern trough more towards the coast), which in turn supports an eastern ridge. In addition I am seeing strong signals of air coming together or confluence over eastern Canada. This is also key because it supports high pressure to stay locked in place over our area. Notice we do not have a big blocking high over Greenland. However, with a piece of the polar vortex there instead, it seems to be pressing down enough to cause that confluence to develop. This almost acts like a negative NAO.
You can see all three major model ensemble groups generally agreeing on this set up..
Not going to lie, seeing this agreement really has my attention for big ticket potential next week.
What a setup like this would cause is a storm developing around the Gulf of Mexico and tracking right up the coast around Wednesday or Thursday as you can see below.
So as you guys can see this winter is not over! A big part of this is not only the El Nino weakening but the stratospheric warming. We already had one episode of warming and now the models are showing enough blow to the stratosphere in the long range. This would really increase our chances for March coming in like a lion..