Before I begin, now that January is in the books, here is how my January forecast did that I put out in October..
Overall not too bad. But New England is very snow starved right now and that needs to change. The big storm helped the Mid-Atlantic and it wouldn't take much more to get 30% more than normal (my forecast) for those spots hit by the storm.
I expect this for Feb (our banner month)..
In any event, we will evaluate how my whole forecast did in the spring. Back to next week...
- A very active and stormy period is in store for next week
- Cold arctic air moves in this weekend with the potential for storm(s) to develop through next week
- A split flow in the jet stream will be a driver in this
- My first focus is Monday into Tuesday
- Details are starting to emerge but we have a lot more data to study before any forecasts can be made
Here is a diagram that sums up my latest thoughts from the European Ensemble..
Over last 48 hours the trends have been to move the western ridge position more east along with the development of a 50/50 low. This is huge as it supports energy to consolidate along the east coast. The diagram above shows how this happens. At the surface you can see the model is projecting that low pressure center to develop offshore and move up the coast due to the northern disturbance diving down and steering it along with blocking from the 50/50 low. Below is the surface projection..
48 hours ago this was not projected due to the upper air placement being much further west. The next image shows this. Old is left new is right..
As you can see drastic changes in the position of the ridge and trough. As the days go on we will have to work out the finer details, but all models agree a storm or storms could develop from Monday through Friday of next week. At this time I want to focus on the period Monday into Tuesday.
Due to the split flow in the jet stream and massive surge of arctic air we really could be looking at multiple disturbances merging with the sub tropical jet which would mean waves of precipitation all week.
You can see how impressive this split flow is projected to be. Talk about cold air meeting warm air!
Thats all for now. We are starting to come a long way from my original post a week back when I started this case study..