Monday, February 29, 2016

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: That's All Folks

Good morning everyone. I am now officially putting winter 2016 in the books. I no longer see any more data that would support any sustainable winter patterns for the foreseeable future. There is still a chance of a snow event this weekend, but I am leaning more towards no event at this time. 

I know many of you have felt this way for weeks now and I understand that. As I said last week, getting those thunderstorms with 65 degree temps on a mid February night was a tell tale sign.As impressive as the stratospheric warming is projected to be this month, it is a little too late. 

This winter will go down as the big one hit wonder. For New England, it is one of the worst on record in terms of low snowfall. Temps overall where also very warm. So yes guys, my winter forecast was a bust I know that. I hate to take it on the chin but it is what it is. At least we got one historical storm and we all had fun tracking it (you all know I did). I will break down and review my winter forecast later this month. 

So this week we have mild conditions with temps in the 50's and rain on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a front comes through..



In the wake of this front cold air moves into the area for the weekend..

This is where we do still have to keep our eye on a storm threat. Yes, some of the better weather models are not impressed with this threat but it is still on some maps. The GFS and Canadian for example still try to spin something up..

This wouldn't be anything major but still would cause flakes to fly with minor accumulations. At this time I am leaning towards more of a non event. Stay tuned in case anything changes.

In the wake of this, all signs are now pointing to a surge of warm air for next week..



The timing of this warm air pretty much seals the deal on winter. Welcome to spring!!

Thanks for reading, more this week. 




3 comments:

  1. HUH. Just like that, it's over? Wait a minute Willy, the NAM hasn't had its chance yet on the Friday set-up. I wouldn't bet on it happening again, but back in January the NAM saw a blizzard that the other models were trying to minimize. From what my limited Wx skills can tell, the models this AM see all of the major elements -- a 50-50 low, a high over Nova Scotia or Maine, and a low forming in the south and going coastal in or near the Carolinas. But each model has its own timing, and none hit the jackpot. The Canadian synoptic seems mildly bullish, maybe 6 to 8 inches over northern NJ, but its ensemble average doesn't support it. After the weekend, the models seem to indicate a warmup . . . not sure what happened to that polar vortex breakdown that was anticipated (the 10mb polar strat temp took a pause today from its recent upward trend, but sometimes it continues climbing despite this). Also, the NAO seems to get back on its feet by the 8th. So, we may well see a few more flakes I would guess, but the idea of a storm going over 6 inches right now seems like a long shot. But then again, let's see what NAM says over the next 24 hours! Why not, waddaya got to lose? Jim G

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. I threw in the towel Jim. Yes there is a chance still for this weekend but the euro and its ensembles are not very bullish on this. The 50/50 which is a product of the negative nao def is a supporting factor. However, the flow does still seem progressive with a kicker shortwave trailing the main disturbance. The Canadian is not as aggressive with this trailing disturbance and builds the ridge more. We need to start seeing a trend towards teh Canadian by Wed am.

      Following this, we should see an impressive warm up. The Strat warm lag would bring us to late March which might be a little too late. I was hoping to see next week active and not a blow torch but the trends are so overwhelming over last few days it really made me give up hope. There is always the shot of that late season event. It happened in 1958 but you cant count on things like that.

      Thanks for reading lets see if we get lucky here on Friday.

      Delete
  2. OK, no big storm on Friday, but as to a small to moderate storm . . . that could happen. The NAM runs thru Friday are looking pretty similar to the others, but the storm track over the past few runs for those others has moved northward a bit. Euro still doesn't seem all that impressed, but CMC, GFS, NAM, and their ensembles all indicate more than 1 inch, but no more than 4 for our area (good old metro NJ). And of course the flakes will be falling on Friday AM, during the commute to work. I'm looking forward to your take on this, hopefully tomorrow sometime. And yea, I'm also reading that the 2nd half of March could be on the colder side with a polar vortex breakdown and some Greenland blocking pressure. Spring could get put on hold for a couple of weeks. With the right upper air flow, you could even be talking some wet snow, at least once. But as to this week and weekend, yea, I see that the zonal flow is pretty strong, not much chance of a coastal storm lingering over the 40-70 sweet spot with a high feeding cold northern jet air into it. Not much chance for phasing here, I gather. But still, it could be enough to inconvenience a whole lot of people, even if not enough to impress all of you snow mavens (and keep the season going in eastern PA and NY for you ski people). Jim G

    ReplyDelete