Friday, February 26, 2016

Friday Morning Weather Discussion: Keeping Tally of Upcoming Storm Threats

Good morning. Rain or snow, this pattern stays very active first 2 weeks of March. I will be traveling this weekend so posting will be limited. This morning I want to review updates to the peroid we are watching..

Starting next week, pretty confident in rain coming through the area on Wednesday. You can see this below as a cold front moves into the area.


In the wake of this front very cold air enters the area for this weekend. This is where things are starting to look interesting. Below is an upper air projection of the atmosphere for late next weekend..



What is starting to catch my eye here is the red over Greenland (high pressure) and the blue in eastern Canada (low pressure). This represents a negative NAO. Negative NAO's cause cold to stay locked in place and increase the chances for storms. Also, we have ridging of high pressure possibly near Montana. This is in a favorable position to allow energy to dive down into the east coast and consolidate due to the -NAO.  Now as always, we need to see how all these factors I just mentioned trend; especially the strength of the ridge out west and position of the blocking over Greenland.

At the surface, models are flirting with the idea of a storm from this set up..


Again, I will be out in Utah skiing that week so I bet this ends up being an epic blizzard LOL. In all seriousness though, we need to keep an eye on this next weekend. 

Following this, we then have another period we need to watch for the middle of the following week (week of the 7th)...


This is extremely far off in model land but what does have my attention is again that big area of red near Greenland, the blue near eastern Canada and finally the energy ejecting into the US through Mexico as seen in blue. Purely speculating, this could end up being sub tropical moisture being thrown into cold air along the east causing snow- especially if we get enough ridging out west.

So that is all for now. Winter might be close to the end but at least we got some active weather to track next two weeks! Rain, snow, or naught, it will keep us on our toes and give us things to discuss. The atmosphere in general is not ready for spring yet!

Thanks for reading.

PS this projection of stratospheric warming by the GFS is absolutely insane! This would really keep whole month of March a lion if verified. I will explain more next week..


3 comments:

  1. I already put my boots away my friend. Winter is OVER.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. You may be right, but bottom line is we at least have stuff to track. That at least warrants a discussion to keep things interesting. At this point don't count on anything and consider any more snow a bonus.

      Delete
    2. You may be right, but bottom line is we at least have stuff to track. That at least warrants a discussion to keep things interesting. At this point don't count on anything and consider any more snow a bonus.

      Delete