Wednesday, January 13, 2016

Wednesday Night Update: Beaten and Battered

Let me tell you guys this storm threat really kicked my ass. The models always flip and flop and sometimes I can identify where they are wrong and blend different models to come up with a forecast. This time however it seemed as if every day they threw a curve ball. So enough with my rant we all know I was unable to nail this one down, no excuse but hopefully you all learned a little along the way.

If you haven't caught on by now, my forecast from this morning looks likes it's going to go up in flames. We now have went front a storm that was too warm and close to the coast to now a storm that is completely out to sea. The European and NAM model started this trend last night but don't forget the euro was further west of most models a day before! So here is the updated model concensus below..

GFS




Euro

As you can see storm is too offshore to effect the region w major impacts. Believe it or not this can still change so I will keep a close eye on it

Basically what changed was a late phase of both peices of energy that needed to combine to really pull this storm into the coast. You can see the separation below..


Tomorrow morning I am going to make the final call but this threat is likely over.

We will then turn our attention to another possible storm Sunday night. I am not making that prediction yet but I want to acknowledge some models are showing a very strong storm. Here is an example below. If I tbink this has potential  I will discuss this more over over next few days.


Sorry for the weird formatting this is done from my cellphone. Gotta give me credit for the dedication!

More formal post tomorrow morning.

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