For areas in northern NJ, NE Pa, Southern CT it will come down to the wire. You could end up from anywhere between 2 and 12 inches. I tried my best to estimate where the snow cutoff will be.
Here are updated storm highlights. I also made a video for those of you who enjoy my company. Great details included for those of you who are interested.
- Major winter storm impacts the area tomorrow night through Saturday
- Storm will feature heavy rates of snowfall and gusting winds
- Near the coastal areas expect some mixing along with gale force wind gusts Saturday
- Beach erosion and some flooding are a concern
- This storm will have an intense cutoff in accumulations to the north.
- Most of the analysis I did today was on where this will be.
- My updated map reflects those thoughts
- The cutoff will be due to an intense snow band developing Saturday over north central NJ extending into PA and long Island. Anyone to the north of this band will be cut off from heavy snow due to sinking air. This cutoff should happen somewhere in NW NJ. This will cause forecast headaches and upset snow lovers.
- Believe it or not models still are trying to figure out where this sets up!
- This will come down to the wire for northern zones
- I tired my best to show this in my map.
- More in my video on this
- For areas in Baltimore/DC this storm will be historic. Over a foot of snow is very likely.
- NYC I really do believe you are in the game for this system.
So lets get right to it. Here was my original preliminary prediction..
And now my final call..
Notice how I have a sharp cutoff in totals. This is due to the banding I expect to develop. For the most part to the south is pretty consistent with my original ideas.
More details in the video below. I will do a write up tomorrow morning and a play by play tomorrow night as the storm approaches.
Note: For those paying attention to details meant to say upper levels of atmosphere colder than surface when explaining the upper level low.