Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Tuesday Morning Weather Discussion: Some Snow Possible Tonight!

Good morning everyone! Yup that's right some areas can see some flakes tonight and they very well could be the last flakes of the season. In general this will not be an accumulating snow event unless you live in the interior above 700ft. Otherwise expect rain later today with some snow possible tonight when the sun goes down. The snow will not stick unless you are at that high elevation.

Since this is prob the last snow we see I had to make a map for old times sake..


Here is a good model projection of precip type for tonight at 8pm


This is a classic Alberta clipper that dives in from Canada. These types of systems never give big snowfall unless they redevelop off the coast and get ocean enhancement. This clipper will not do that.

I currently live at about 400ft in Morristown, NJ. During systems like this  I always like to drive a few miles up the road to 1000ft to see the differences in precip type. It is not uncommon for it to be raining here when it snows up there with systems like this. This is all due to a warm surface layer due to the daytime heating of the late March sun. The increase in elevation relaxes that heating just enough to let the layer of air near the surface support the snow. 

Moving on, this weekend I expect a rain storm for most areas..



This is from Friday night into Saturday. I will be in northern Vermont skiing so I am preying this will happen for one last great ski weekend. 

Thanks for checking in guys, I will have some observations tonight when this clipper is underway. 

Monday, March 30, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning everyone. We are right at the finish line now in terms of this lingering colder than normal pattern. After this week (which actually will not be too bad) we are completely out of the woods and everyone can welcome spring and warmer temps! We might just have one more small hurdle to climb however.

In terms of temps this week things will be pretty moderate across the region. Most days will be in the 50's and maybe we can even throw a 60 or two in there by the end of the week. The sun is just as strong as it would be in early September and despite any colder than normal air masses aloft, it really helps warm things up. 

The one issue we might have is the possibility of some snow in northern counties at a higher elevation on Tuesday night. This is due to an approaching clipper system that could pack a little bit of a punch

The good news it it appears surface temps will be too warm for most of the forecast region and the only places that have a shot at seeing snow accumulate on the grass would be NNJ above 800ft after the sun goes down. Basically, this is not a huge concern of mine at this time but it still reminds us that winter is swinging as it goes down.

As we get to later in the week another storm system approaches but at this time it looks to be very wet for most areas. I have been following this for a few days now and I can confidently say I do not see this being a snow threat unless you live in Northern New England. Expect rain as we head into the weekend from this system.


In the wake of this storm, I see signs of the floodgates to spring finally opening. Check out the warm flow that should develop as we head into next week..

As typical with the transition in the season, the northern jet stream weakens and retreats north and we have the southern jet starting to dominate the pattern bringing with it a warmer flow of air. 

I will point out that the northern jet will still dip in at times and this is what can cause severe weather as we head into May. Thunderstorms feed off that contrast in temps. 

Thanks for checking in, I will keep my eye on the clipper and that weekend storm system and keep everyone updated as the week goes on.

Saturday, March 28, 2015

Weekend Post on Tap: Winter Might Show its Claws Once More

Interesting 7 day period ahead of one last gasp of winter. I will have more commentary on this sometime this weekend into Monday morning.

Stay tuned!

Thursday, March 26, 2015

Thursday Morning Weather Briefing

Good morning everyone. The story of today will be more of the warm temperatures than it will be the rain. A low pressure system will pass to our west and bring with it a southwesterly flow. That mean warm moist air comes into the area..

Here are high temps today!


Don't get too excited tho, cold air returns for Saturday as the arctic front passes..


Don't be surprised to see a few snow showers on Saturday as there will be a storm system off shore. 

As we head into next week, temps will not be warm but not too cold either. Except slightly below avg temps which this time of year is not too cold. 


Winter is officially over in my book! That is unless you live in northern Vermont or Canada. There is a stray chance that we see one last hurrah before the second week of April, but I can't place my chips on that at this time. I only mention it because the lingering active pattern should last until then. However everything needs to happen perfectly for a snow event say by late next weekend. 

I am going to be doing a review of my winter forecast at the end of this week and breakdown how things turned out. Also, we will be entering severe weather season soon. My posts will not be as frequent as they were during the winter but I will try t0 update the blog a few times a week and when there is active weather such as thunderstorms to talk about. 

Thanks for checking in!

Wednesday, March 25, 2015

Wednesday Morning: Nothing to Add Today

Not much more to add since Monday. Rain hits the area later this week with a small chance at snow this weekend. We get a few spotty days of warm ups but overall the warmer than normal pattern continues through next week.

I will have a pattern update video tonight around 9 discussing when I think spring will come on strong. 

Monday, March 23, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Colder Than Normal Will Continue

Good morning everyone! Sorry to break it to you but the overall pattern will stay colder than normal for the next 10 days. Spring does not want to arrive quite yet. There will be a few warm days thrown into the mix, but overall colder than normal means a lot of days in the 40's the next 7 days. 

You can see that stubborn western ridge of high pressure in the jet stream which causes colder than normal conditions over our area as the jet sinks south allowing in Canadian air..


As I have mentioned in the past, this ridge is the result of very warm water off the pacific coast. Here are the gfs ensembles high and low temps next 10 days..



You can see towards the end of the week a few 60's but overall not too warm at all. The top row is high temps the bottom row is low temps for NNJ. 

I expect this colder than normal pattern should break by the 2nd week of April in the worst case scenario. Once it breaks we then have to be on the lookout for severe weather potential heading into May. 

Could it snow again? Unfortunately yes it could given this pattern but as each day goes by its chances will diminish. 

As a huge surge of cold air pours into the east this weekend, we need to be on the lookout for a storm to develop. At this time I do not support its chances but the models have been flirting with the idea that a low pressure system develops along the cold front..



The problem is the trough will be positively tilted in orientation so for a storm to develop Saturday we need things to change. I will keep an eye on this, but at this time just expect colder than normal conditions from this weekend into next week. 

That's all for today, thanks for checking in. If things change with Saturday, you will be the first to know!

Friday, March 20, 2015

Friday Morning Storm Update: On Track, Video Gives a Play by Play

Good morning everyone! Our storm is now moving into the area and things remain pretty much on track. As I mentioned in my quick note last night the models did trend south a little which means the snow will last a little longer further south. I don't expect much changes to my accumulation map except for maybe taking the 3-5 out of southern RI and Mass and pulling the 3-5" band 15 miles further south in NJ. I kept video pretty short, but here are some pointers:

  • Snow breaks out by mid morning for most areas
  • As we approach the lunch hour it really starts to pick up in intensity
  • The heavier snow should last till early evening
  • The overall snow stops later tonight
  • Snow will change to rain for areas south of Philadelphia and mix with sleet in the Philadelphia region 
  • To the north things should stay mostly snow throughout the day 
  • If you are below 500ft and especially near an urban area do not expect much accumulation on the roads (slushy)
    • your snow will mostly be on the grass
  • The prime spot to be in my opinion is over 700ft in North Jersey- that's where you will see the largest impacts as surface temps will be colder 

Enjoy the video!


Thursday, March 19, 2015

Technical Difficulties no Video Tonight

I had a video done but can't upload it due to computer issues.  Forecast is pretty much on track. If I had to change anything it would be adjusting the heavy snow band slightly South by say 15 miles. This is due to a small potential shift South thus colder for Central NJ. There could be some six inch amounts but generally I still like 3-5 from North Central NJ into North Jersey and into NYC. At elevations above 500ft you guys will see a little more snow than most.  Near Phili I still like 2-3 and South of that maybe an inch.

I will try to recut a video very early tomorrow morning before the commute to keep everyone updated.

Thursday Morning: The Final Forecast for Friday's Snow Event

As always this is my final forecast that I like to release 24 hrs before the start of the event. Yes if absolutely necessary I will tweak it but the goal is not to have to do that. I actually made no changes to the preliminary map I made yesterday morning, I really like what I have. This storm will start tomorrow morning and start to pick up in intensity as we get to late in the morning into early afternoon. The best chances for 5" and even locally more accumulations are in NNJ above 700ft. Otherwise the 3-5" should work out well. Depending on your elevation will determine how much effects the roadways (temps will be hovering right around freezing for lower elevation areas). Down further south expect a nice front end thump of snow but there should be some mixing issues as we get into the afternoon which is why the amounts are lower down there. 

I will do a video forecast tonight with the play by play.


Wednesday, March 18, 2015

Wednesday Night: Quick Video Breakdown of the Storm

Video breaks down storm impacts. I tried to keep it short at 3 min long. Final forecast is out tomorrow. In general you want to be north (NNJ and Southern New England) and at a higher elevation to see the highest amounts on my map. Surface temps will be marginal in lower elevation areas which will result in accumulations more on grassy surfaces. Keep that in mind. This will help reduce travel impacts near NYC.


Preliminary Forecast for Friday's Storm System

A light to moderate winter storm will impact the region from Friday morning to Friday evening. Due to late season conditions the snow will not accumulate as quickly as we have been used to this year but still should pile up on grassy surfaces and some road areas (northern zones) before all is said and done. North Jersey into Southern New England I expect the more accumulations with possibly up to 5". In general I expect a lot of 3" amounts in dark blue zone. Further south in NJ I expect less accumulations due to warmer atmospheric conditions. This will cut down accumulations. I expect many 2" amounts in the light blue zone. 

This is not a final forecast. I always like to try to keep you guys ahead of a weather event by releasing initial ideas. If necessary I will update tomorrow. Stay tuned for more commentary tonight around 7:30. 


Tuesday, March 17, 2015

Update coming later tonight or first thing tomorrow morning on Fridays snow threat

Preliminary forecast will be released.

A Shot at Accumulating Snow Friday

As I have been discussing the pattern is ripe for winter weather as we head into this weekend. I laid out the reasons why over the last several posts. The models are now starting to flirt with the idea of a storm system to effect the region on Friday. A lot of details still need to be worked out but right now here is my general idea of what could occur.

At this time I do not see a major storm treat for Friday. If this pans out it would be a moderate late season threat. Differences in models vary from a more suppressed solution on the GFS to a more robust northern solution by the Canadian. The European and UKMET are right in between. The map above is my estimate based on looking at all the data. 

The biggest part of this equation is how much of a "dig" we get from the approaching northern disturbance. You can see that disturbance below entering PA on Friday..

I will keep monitoring this situation and post updates. 

Sunday, March 15, 2015

Sunday Night Video Discussion: Can it Snow Again this Year?

In tonight's video I give an update on my thoughts behind my target period of the 19th to 24th. This is a little bit more of an advanced discussion so I will summarize it for people not interested in the details below:


  • Cold air returns to the area mid-week as a cold front moves into the area
    • expect highs in the 30's to 40's depending on where you located
  • As this cold air is established the overall atmosphere could be favorable for potential storm development later this week into early next week.
    • This is due to an active southern jet stream and favorable dynamics to  hold cold air in place over the region 
  • The targeted area would be NYC north into New England.
    •  Further south I would significantly reduce the chances at seeing any winter storm
  • JUST BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS RIPE DOES NOT GUARANTEE A STORM WILL OCCUR!
  • The whole point of this discussion is to show how in my opinion all the ingredients will be in place and it is now up to the atmosphere to see if they come together 
    • I am also challenging claims that it can't snow this time of year 
    • It is absolutely possible with the pattern we will have in place even with a stronger sun for the areas I am targeting
Enjoy the video!


Saturday, March 14, 2015

Enjoy the weekend, models starting to sniff things out

I will cut a video Sunday night w updates but models are starting to sniff out some mischief for next weekend in northern mid Atlantic and new England we will see how this trends based on the pattern I've been discussing

Friday, March 13, 2015

Friday Morning Update: No Changes to my Thoughts..Still Eyeing the 19-24th peroid

Good morning I haven't posted much last two days because we are at a point where we just have to wait and watch this pattern evolve. By the middle of next week all the ingredients will be on the playing field and the question will be if that can come together and produce a significant storm. As I have been saying, just because the ingredients are there it does not guarantee a storm just increases the chances. Its like cooking you need to have them come together in the perfect fashion. In any event I don't know what other ingredients a pattern would need other than what you see below..




This image is valid late next week and I highlighted several features that interest me. The NAO is key because if you get that undercutting southern jet energy to enter the USA it increases the chances the flow slows down and it merges with any northern disturbances that spins in from  Canada.  If nothing ends up happening then this just results in a colder than normal pattern to end March. 

So now we watch the models and see if they start picking up on anything in my 6-11 day period. As you guys have seen all year, these models sometimes cant sniff anything out until a few days before. At least we know the pattern is there and that is step one to identify unsettled weather. To reiterate, any winter weather I expect will be focused on northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Areas more to the south I still believe winter is over. 

Wednesday, March 11, 2015

Wednesday Morning: Atmosphere is a Loaded Gun...Will Old Man Winter Pull the Trigger?

Good morning everyone! I discussed in my last post in great detail how and why the pattern was going to shift to cold and stormy last 2 weeks of March. I also highlighted the period from the 19-24th for potential storm development. I want to make clear that just because the pattern is loaded does not mean a storm will occur it just INCREASES the chances. This late in the season you need everything to come together perfect. With that being said, lets have a little fun and highlight two areas of concern for storm development.

Concern #1 Tuesday into Wednesday

A nothern disturbance is expected to dive down towards the east coast on Tuesday. As this disturbance dives down we have a developing block or negative NAO downstream of the disturbance. Because of this developing block we need to be on alert for this disturbance to close off and amplify off the east coast. If this occurred a big storm would happen. Image below highlights my points. Ignore concern #2 as I will get to that in a min.



You can see the developing ridge near Greenland along with a vortex near eastern Canada also known as a 50/50 low. The placement of those variables along with how amplified the western ridge become will determine the fate of the northern disturbance and if that things really cracks up into a significant storm for Wednesday. We will keep a close eye on that.

Moving on, notice how I highlighted concern #2. That represents an active southern jet cutting underneath the ridge out west. With again that blocking in place downstream we need to be on alert for a northern disturbance to dive down and interact with this southern disturbance later in the period say towards the end of next week. The block over Greenland slows down the flow, thus it gives all these ingredients a better chance of coming together and forming a big storm. Make the block too strong however and you get a suppressed solution. 

We have not had a pattern this good all winter for storm development along the east coast in particular that negative NAO. Now that it is projected to be in place we have to be on high alert from next week on. Lets see how this plays out over next few model runs. 

Stay tuned for a video this eve! 

Monday, March 9, 2015

Monday Night Pattern Update: All Signs Point to Colder and Stormier Second Half of March

Video below goes into finer detail on why I believe we are not finished with cold and stormy weather this winter. It is a little longer (6 min) than normal but there is a lot to talk about for anyone who is interested. Here are the takeaways:


  • After the mild weather this week the pattern changes to a winter like set up for the last two weeks of March into early April
    • This is backed up by support from all major models, pacific sea surface temperatures, trends in the stratosphere and the MJO
  • It is important to note that it is March, so averages are higher than February which means below normal is not as cold.
    •  Consequently,I do not expect anyone to see high temperatures near NYC in the teens this month
  • However, things should still get cold enough for a snow threat before it is all said and done for some areas.
  • Baltimore/Washington and Philadelphia I think you are done with snow. 
  • Even for NYC it will be a close call but just inland and up into New England it's game on. 
  • For any skiers out there, ski season should extend well into April this year.
  • If I had to target a period for a storm to POTENTIALLY develop it would be from the 19th to 24th. 


Note: In the video I mentioned the word typhoon by mistake when talking about weather near Japan. There is no typhoon, I meant storm system. 



Monday Morning Weather Discussion: Spring Weather Leads to Weekend Trouble

Good morning everyone. It is going to be an excellent week in terms of temperatures. Many areas wil be in the 40's and 50's. Be sure to enjoy this while it lasts because I am predicting that the second half of March will not be pleasant.  In fact I am gaining confidence that we will have weather issues this weekend let me explain why.


  • Very active sub tropical jet emerges out of the Gulf of Mexico this week.
  • As this jet stream sprays moisture into the east a stubborn Canadian high pressure system will develop over the Northeast locking on cold air.
Image below shows this..

It is important to not underestimate high pressure systems. More times than not this winter they have ended up being stronger than modeled. Recent trends over the weekend have pointed to this high pressure system being a real threat.

So whats the bottom line?

Areas from Phili northward can see winter precipitation from this system. I would expect that it ends up being snow/ice to rain say from Phili to NYC but in Southern New England this can be a snowstorm on Saturday. I am basing this on model trends. 

For the more advanced end of things, the upper air pattern supports this high pressure being held in place due to confluence over the east. Confluence can be seen by the height lines converging along an axis.


Everyone is going to think I am crazy as they experience a taste of spring this week but remember I warned you. 

Moving into next week the pattern gets only more interesting as we have a negative NAO, negative AO, Positive PNA, and Negative EPO develop. All these variables mean cold and stormy end to March..


Enjoy the warm weather! I will have time tonight to go into more detail on all of this. 


Friday, March 6, 2015

Friday Morning Summary

Well after it is all said and done it was a decent storm. Extremely hard to forecast but decent. My preliminary map was not on point and I did have to make a adjustment to my final map so that def hurts my grading for this storm. With that being said the final map did ok.

Here are snowfall reports..



A solid 4-8 in NNJ extending into southern CT and Mass. Notice the sharp cutoff to the north. To the south we had amounts up to a foot but that was very localized. In general though a lot of amounts were over 6 so I guess the 6-12 did ok. I did not expect the very high amounts on Cape Cod, that was a surprise..

My map again..



So overall it didn't do that bad but based on the changes I had to make Wednesday night I give myself another C on this one. Its been a tough winter to forecast that's for sure but hopefully I have been more consistent that other outlets that make 10 different forecasts. 

So it remains cold though Saturday then here comes the warm up. The ridge over AK breaks down and in floods the pacific air next week..


However, not so fast my friend. I do not beleive this is a prolonged warm up and instead is more of a false spring. The reason is all long term signals strongly point to that ridge over AK building again and pouring arctic air back into the county after next week.


Now remember the sun is stronger this time of year so average temps go up in general but for areas north of Balt/Wash and even Phili winter might not be over here as we head to mid and late March. We really are going to have to be on guard ESPECIALLY if we get a negative NAO. You guys should enjoy the warmer air next week while it lasts. 

Stay tuned for updates and thanks for following.

Thursday, March 5, 2015

In the Heart of the Storm: Weatherwilly at his Finest

Live footage from one of the peak snow bands today.




This morning I mentioned I think this is it for southern zones for big snows this year that is basically everyone south of Central NJ. However after next week's warm up we might have one more big gasp of old man winter for areas to the north. Stay tuned for more to come with one of my long range updates!

You will see live footage up this evening from today's storm

5pm

Morning Storm Update: Storm is underway.

Good morning everyone! If your crazy like me you were up long before dawn today tracking this storm. What I can say is everything is on track. The rain snow line is rapidly crashing south and all areas will soon be changing over to snow. In northern NJ the changeover occurred a few hours ago. Watch those surface temperatures as they will crash as the day goes on. This is due to the cold front slowing drifting south into the area. It is this front that is aiding in the enhancement of precipitation. Roads will only deteriorate as the day goes on and many areas especially to the south will not see an end of the snow until this eve. 


A few points:

  • The biggest impacts are central and parts of south Jersey into Delaware. For north NJ where I have 4-8 there will be travel impacts but not as severe as areas with the higher totals. 
  • To be honest I caved into the pressure last night and should have kept the 3-6 up there but what is done is done we will see if the 4-8 verifies. 
Latest rapid refresh model guidance has snow lasting until this afternoon for many 

This is projected radar at 3 pm



Heavier snow bands further south, the accumulations up north are gradual throughout the day which will help road crews. 

Our current radar continues to show the impressive plume of moisture..



This all moves northeastward along the front that is now in place and gradually drifting south.

One variable I look at to determine where the heavy snow will be is lift in the atmosphere. Below you can see the high lift values to the south represented by the darker colors.



These are areas where roads will take more of a beating especially when temps are lower. 

Will this be the last storm of winter?  The answer is yes very likely FOR SOUTHERN AREAS. More to come on that. 

Wednesday, March 4, 2015

8PM Video Update

What a roller coaster it has been to predict this storm. The models have been all over the place today and its made this extremely difficult for me. With that being said, I like most of what I have from this morning. I did make some changes to the map however and drag the northern extent of the snow north a little. The video below gives you all the info you need on timing and impacts. Live updates to come!

By the way I got a special intro to the video (bringing back the feel of the old Weather Channel Local Forecast days)



A lot to talk about tonight, don't forget to tune in at 8

Final Forecast for Tomorrow's Storm

1pm commentary. I like what i have right now. Been getting a lot of questions on particular amounts so here is my city by city thinking:

NYC 4"
Morristown NJ 5"
Sussex NJ 3"
Edison NJ 6"
Philadelphia 8"
Balt/Wash 6-8"
Providence RI 2-4"
Hartford CT 2"

Local areas can see up to a Foot.  Very tricky forecast, tune in tonight at 8.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

The numbers are crunched and the final forecast is out. There will be no changes to this forecast from here on out, just commentary. A frontal boundary will stall over our region later tonight as a low pressure center forms along the boundary and rides northeast out to sea. As this boundry establishes itself the warm air currently over the forecast area will be pushed away. This transition will result in some mixed precipitation to start for central and southern zones late tonight, before turning to all snow by Thursday morning. Once the snow starts Thursday morning it will only pick up in intensity before ending on Thursday night. There will be a wide range of accumulations throughout the area, with the most accumulation expected more south with this system. I expect a sharp cutoff of precip in northern counties especially in the 2-3 inch areas. For northern parts of the 3-6 inch zone, this is going to have to be watched very closely but I think that range covers all outcomes. Here is my final forecast map..



I will have additional commentary on twitter from time to time and also a update tonight around 8pm on this blog. Be sure to tune into that as I will review any changes in model guidance.

Tuesday, March 3, 2015

Tuesday Night Video: Just Discussing Some Thoughts

Video up around 930

Final forecast tomorrow but I'm gunna dive into this hardcore tonight

Final forecast is out first thing tomorrow morning

Southern trend in models so far today. Takes axis of heavy snow into central Jersey and parts of South.  If necessary I will make changes in my preliminary map when I issue the final forecast tomorrow AM.

Preliminary Forecast for Thursday's Storm

Good morning. I am going to get right to the point today. If you want the commentary yesterday's posts and video are full of it. I am going with a solution that is slightly more north of most model guidance but south of  NAM model guidance. Here is what my Preliminary thoughts are on Thursday's system. However, I think its important to try to actually forecast a storm not wait until 24 hours before the event. Sure things could change but that's why I use the word preliminary. I will update by tomorrow night if necessary. Folks further south you are not out of this I just am trying to anticipate model shifts. Snow should break out in most areas Thursday morning and last until the evening hours. Snow might start as rain or mixed precip in the southern zones which is why accumulations are less there. 



This storm will be impacted by the storm that will pass through our area later today. The storm later today will have a quick burst of snow for Central NJ into New England followed by ice and freezing rain. Expect up to a couple of inches in northern counties tonight before the changeover. 

That's all for now, be careful out there tonight and stay tuned for further updates to my forecast for Thursday's storm.

Monday, March 2, 2015

Monday Night Video Update: We Have Another Storm on Tap!

Video below gives a brief overview of my thoughts on the storm system to effect our region tomorrow and the more significant system Thursday. I will have my first map out tomorrow morning for the Thursday event. Be careful tomorrow NIGHT (typo), snow changes to ice for most areas and I do not think it gets above freezing for many. It is tomorrow's storm that lays the framework for Thursday.

I'm cutting video tonight around 730.. Stay tuned

Monday Morning Weather Discussion: An Eventful Week Ahead

What a week of weather we have in store guys. March could not have come in with more action on tap and today's post will attempt to break it all down for you. Before we begin here where snowfall reports from yesterday's event..

My Map which was made on Saturday morning..

Clearly some flaws in the map above, but some areas worked out well. The forecast was correct for CT,RI, Mass, NY state and Central and South Jersey. The forecast was wrong with accumulations too high for Northern NJ and too low for Long Island. Overall I did a fair not excellent job with this. I give myself a C. You guys be the judge.

Now to the action! Lets dive right into this week. Now that we are within a few days of the action we can start to trust the models a little more. Remember last week when I was pounding the table saying due to the complexity of the jet stream we had to wait to this period to sort this out. 

It all starts with a storm system tomorrow that will cut to our west. The result will be a quick peroid of front end snow changing to ice then plain rain for a little. The changeover will occur because the storm brings in warm air from the south since its track is to our west. Here is the model projection for Tuesday night..

This is right before the changeover to rain. Now lets pause here and illustrate the role this storm will play for our next system on Thurday that could be the significant weather maker. 

As the storm departs to our west, it sweeps in a cold front. This cold front is KEY as it sets up our baroclinic zone or boundary between warm and cold air for our next storm system to ride along I show the cold front below sweeping into the region..

Lets now turn to 18,000ft in the atmosphere and look at what is going on aloft. We are going to be dealing with two disturbances- one in the northern stream and one in the southern stream. We need both of those disturbances to interact in order for this boundary of cold air to set up in the perfect spot for a storm system to effect our area. Let me illustrate..

The gfs is faster with the northern disturbance. Because of this it pushes the baroclinic zone too far south ahead of the southern jet stream disturbance. The end result is a storm that is more to the south.

Here is the illustration:



The end result at the surface..


Notice how the whole storm is more south.

Is the GFS correct? I do not think so and there are three reasons why:


  • European is further west
  • Canadian is further west
  • The GFS ensembles are further west
For example here is the Canadian at 18,000ft at same time as GFS..

The end result..

As you can see a further north solution. The European looks similar. To illustrate my third point check this out..

Those green lines represent all the different ensemble members projection of the northern disturbance vs the operational in white. The ensemble is saying the operational might be too fast. Thus the ensemble is more like the European and Canadian.

So now that I really dove into this what do I think for my first estimate?


That's all I will say for now. This storm could be a strong one if these variables come together correctly. By strong I mean 6+ inches.

Stay tuned!

Sunday, March 1, 2015

Sunday Night Update

Snow continues to fall in our northern counties. I have seen totals reported as high as 5" so far in parts of Morris county NJ. In Morristown 3" has fallen so far. I also personally measured 3" in Chatham NJ which is just off of I-78. It has just changed over to sleet there.

Expect a few more inches to potentially fall before it is all said and done later tonight. For areas of RI CT and Mass snow will last longer and we will have to see if there is any enhancement from the ocean.  Tomorrow morning I will do a review of my snow map and see how I did. I will take a few final measurements later tonight before I hit the sack. 

Also, we have a very active week of weather ahead. On Tuesday we have more snow that could accumulate a few inches before changing over to rain. Following that, Thursday is something we really have to watch as a wave of low pressure tries to develop along a front. If we get proper interaction between the southern and northern jet streams this could be a more significant system. I will break down the components tomorrow morning along with my first estimate of what will occur. 

Be sure to check in.

Keep an eye on my twitter feed to the right for updates, live footage tonight

Sunday Morning Storm Update

Snow will break out for most areas this morning but quickly change over to ice and rain in southern zones. Once you head into central NJ ice becomes a bigger concern as the changeover will not be all to rain. By the time we get to mid afternoon sleet should filter in all the way up to the I-78 corridor and freezing rain a little further south. The money zone for accumulating snow is north of I-78, especially along the I-80 corridor to the north. That is where my 4-8 inch band is. I see no reason to change my snowfall map from yesterday morning.

The video below gives a quick overview of all these details. I will be doing frequent updates through the day and night for anyone who wants to track the storm. 










P.S. We have a potentially very active week ahead with winter weather stay tuned!!!

Update around 10am