Saturday, December 26, 2015

Preliminary Impact Map for Tuesday's Winter Storm

Good morning everyone. Hope everyone had a nice Christmas. Lets turn our focus to the approaching storm system I have been discussing for Tuesday. Below is my preliminary impact map for this system.

I will finalize this tomorrow night but this is my going forecast at this time. There are differences between the GFS and European models with this system.  European is slower and allows the cold air to leave ahead of the storm. The GFS has been very consistent in keeping the cold air around for longer with a faster approaching storm system. I looked at both models and came up with my prediction above. Do not get too caught up in model projected snow maps for this storm. A lot of the snow they show is actually sleet. An example is below..

The model counts sleet as snow especially in black circled area. Just because of the equation used. It might be below freezing at 5000ft to surface but there a warm layer that gets filtered in that causes sleet. 

For  ski country, I think Killington northward has a decent shot at some respectable accumulating snow. Southern VT looks to be caught in the sleet and freezing rain with some initial front end snow. From central VT northward I think 5-8" of mostly snow is a good bet at this time.

NNJ into CT some ice to start but a quick change to rain. I do not expect a high impact from this storm system. 

In the wake of this system our pattern change looks excellent! Very cold air will start to bleed into the eastern 1/3 around the New Year and looks to stay locked in for the 1st two weeks of Jan. We will have to keep our eye on developing storm systems for this time frame. More on this as the days go on.

Again, I will finalize the impact map tomorrow night or Monday morning. Skiers out there stay tuned!

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