So lets take a look at the updated NHC track..
You can see a clear shift west from yesterday. Notice the land it is traveling over now. This relates to the latest model spread which is also further west..
Based on the projected paths of those models above, most of them would be taking this directly into upper level wind sheer as seen below by the orange colors to the west of the low center..
The key yesterday was that models were projecting this storm would turn more north and avoid most of this shear. Now it looks to be running literally into a brick wall.
IF this guidance holds, the end result might be nothing more than this..
Nothing to impressive there. Yes it would bring rain early next week to Fl, but not anything to write home about.
To summarize, this situation still needs to be monitored. You guys can now see the difference one day can make on the evolution of this. I think we will have a better handle on this by tomorrow. IF last nights trends continue then we can close the book on Erika. I am not ready to make that call yet however.