Tuesday, July 21, 2015

Tuesday Morning: One More Day Then the Heat Breaks!

Good morning everyone. It will be another hot and humid day over the area with temperatures in the 90s with a high moisture content in the air. This makes for a miserable feel as you walk outside. Why so hot and humid? We are currently under a regime of a southerly flow of air. This means all the heat and humidity from the tropics has the chance of bleeding up into our area. To break this pattern requires a frontal passage. The good news is, that will come tonight!

When fronts pass they bring with them cooler and more importantly DRIER air. The drier air makes it feel much more tolerable even if temps are still on the high side. So to start, here is the passage of the front tonight. Expect a few showers as we head through tonight..

Now here come the key check out the dew points for the air mass that this front is going to bring in...

Dew points in the 50's tomorrow! Yes even though the actual temperature will still be in the mid to upper 80's this drier air will make it feel supreme. The dew point is just the temperature that the air would condense. The more moisture you have in the air the higher the dew point. Currently dew points have been in the 70's which is why it feels so miserable. 

High pressure then builds into the region though Saturday morning keeping the conditions consistent..

Its always nice to see a high pressure center to our west north west because it means the air flow is from the north which is naturally cooler. 

The nice weather should hold until Sunday where we might see another frontal passage which could mean more showers..

So hang in there, the finish line is in sight in terms of nice summer weather returning.  

On another note, it is no secret I am a winter weather enthusiast. As we head into Aug I am going to start to monitor seasonal trends that will ultimately lead to my Winter 2016 Forecast that comes out in October. Stay tuned for a few sneak peaks here and there as I begin to discuss the factors I will be monitoring!


  1. August, time to start thinking about winter !!! Well why not, nothing much expected to happen in the tropical Atlantic basic (of course, just by saying that I've probably triggered something that will lead to a Cat 4 storm!). Gonna be interesting -- a major El Nino into 2016, together with that seemingly never-ending north Pacific blob. The MJO has certainly been restless lately. The coming winter season could be quite active, one way (cold) or the other (warm) . . . and maybe both! Looking forward to the sneak peaks. Jim G

  2. Always love the commentary Jim. I really do agree with you Winter 2016 could be a blowtorch or another cold stormy winter (prob nto as cold as last year). I need to see how this el nino evolves along with the PDO. Also, that snow growth in Oct over Eurasia is always a key factor. Time to start doing some research!