Monday, April 27, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Temps Gradually Rise Till Wed, Possible Coastal Storm Late Week

Good morning everyone. We got another week ahead of us and it appears things MIGHT turn out ok weather wise. A lot of that statement depends on the track of a potential coastal storm later in the week, but up until l then we got some decent weather locked in. 

Let me start off with temperatures over the next 7 days. This is a North Jersey location but overall it gives everyone a general sense of what to expect..

This is taken from the GFS model so that high temp of 57 Friday is based on the GFS having the coastal storm effect our area during that time period. The European model does not have the storm coming up the coast so consequently the temperature is higher on that model. Regardless, you can see temps are on the increase though Wednesday. AS I mentioned over the weekend if you average these all out not the warmest weather pattern but very tolerable.

So lets look at the situation for the end of this week.

GFS Model..

Has a nice wound up coastal storm valid Friday Night. If this occurred it would bring with it wind driven rain. 


This model is slow to develop the storm so it drifts out to sea.

So what will occur? As always it depends on how the energy sets up...

Looking above on the GFS models upper air projection we have a sharp northern disturbance diving down and catching a lingering southern short wave or in other words piece of energy that is moving across the southern US.  Because the model has this northern disturbance sharper than the European, it is causing a earlier phase thus a storm that is closer to the coast. 

If I had to put a probability on this I would say we have a 50/50 shot of getting impacted by unsettled weather Friday and Saturday morning. 

If this spares the area, then the week as a whole including the weekend looks great. Even if the storm does hit, most of the weekend still should make out ok.

More on this by mid-week. 

Friday, April 24, 2015

Friday Night Weekend Update: There is a Chill in the Air

Well it was a interesting week for weather. We started off with warm temps and rain then transitioned into a very cold air mass for this time of year. In fact, snow flakes were flying yesterday in NNJ, I witnessed it myself!

Let briefly talk about the weekend..

Warm will not be the word for this weekend. Many areas only see highs in the 50's. Tonight and Saturday night there are freeze watches out. Many areas to the north go below freezing!

Here is the air mass..

That upper level low over New  England has been responsible for this chilly weather. It lingers till the end of the weekend then a broader trough settles in for next week. This means more colder than normal weather but not as chilly as we are currently seeing..

The good news in partly cloudy to sunny skis for the whole weekend! As long as you have a light jacket this weekend should be no issue.

I will have updates Monday in my weekly weather summary.

Wednesday, April 22, 2015

Showers and Storms Later Today

As I discussed Monday, showers and Storms return tonight.  As front passes colder than normal conditions through the weekend.  Things should stay dry tho.  I will have a more detailed look at the weekend by tomorrow morning.

Monday, April 20, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary

Good morning everyone. Well it was a very nice weekend and now the tables have turned as you look out the window. A strong storm system to our west is causing very heavy showers and some storms (to the south) to move though our area today..

Good thing this held off to spare the weekend. The upper level low to the west will linger through at least the middle of this week. This means that after today there will be periods of unsettled weather though at least Wednesday. Expect the shot at showers with sun breaking through at times Tuesday and Wednesday. You can see below the extent of this upper level low over the lakes..

After we get though Wednesday the weather should become a little more stable with drier conditions heading into the weekend. We are not going to see very warm temperatures due to the placement of the jet stream. Below is the 7 day temperature projection from the GFS model..

As you can see most area will experience low 60s from mid week on with some spots more north in the high 50's. Not too cold, but chilly enough to remind us that winter was not too long ago. 

The overall pattern though next week looks to hold this cooler air mass in place..

Notice that vortex spinning off of eastern Canada with a ridge to the west. This is what will keep things from feeling like spring in in full swing. Regardless, its nothing we can't handle considering a month ago it was in the single digits!

That's all for now I will have an updated perspective on all of this towards end of the week. I do not expect any severe weather to discuss for this period. 

Friday, April 17, 2015

Weekend Weather Update

Quick note today about the weekend. It now appears the rainstorm will hold off until Monday resulting in nice weather for both Saturday and Sunday!

Highs will be in the 70s for many areas Saturday with sunshine and the 60's on Sunday.

Then the rain comse in Monday..

Earlier in the week the storm system was being modeled for the weekend but has slowed down since then. 

Enjoy the nice weather. The rain is over for today as well.

Monday, April 13, 2015

Monday Weekly Weather Summary: Nice Spring Week Ahead

Good morning everyone. Now that I am on my "off season" posting schedule expect a few posts a week which is a lot less than in the winter season. However, I will always try to have a weekly weather summary on Monday mornings and have special posts when the weather permits (severe weather events). 

Today we will focus on the week ahead which looks to be a nice one due to the jet stream rising over our area allowing warmer air to stay locked in the region..

That blue area near Colorado is a cut off low that will cause snow in the mountains and possbily lower elevations this week out there. That low may effect our weather this weekend but that remains to be seen.

Later tonight into tomorrow morning we will see some showers as a front moves through..

From there the rest of the work week looks great with not much rain expected. Here are projected temps over the next 7 days..

Not bad at all compared to what we got used to over the last three months!

So as we approach the weekend we might have some unsettled weather to deal with Saturday. 

Above is a projection of the GFS model for Saturday which shows a very healthy storm system bringing heavy rain into the area. Not all models are on board with this scenario, but they all are indicating at least the shot at rain. The GFS has the biggest storm due to a phase of the northern and southern jet. The Canadian like the European is not as strong as seen below..

The models will continue to jump around with this scenario. At this time I would expect the chance of rain for at least Saturday of this weekend. On Sunday things might clear up to salvage the weekend.

Thats all for now, thanks for checking in!

Thursday, April 9, 2015

Thursday Late Week Update

Storms will continue to effect the central US this afternoon and tonight. You can see a nasty projected squall line by the high resolution NAM model by the time we get to tonight..

Once all this move through the country things will start to warm up as we head into next week. The image below shows the temperature departure from normal for next week..

In north NJ and most surrounding parts that looks like this..

Yes we can see a few 70's especially tomorrow! However, we do home some showers and maybe a storm to deal with tomorrow then it really gets nice in time for Masters Weekend.

Thats all for today, thanks for checking in. As I mentioned severe weather season for our neck of the woods is not far away. Stay tuned!

Monday, April 6, 2015

Monday Morning: Spring is Here, Severe Weather for Nations Midsection

Good morning everyone. Winter is now a distant memory as we enter our spring pattern. As I showed last week that is evident by the flow of the jet stream this week..

In general, that image shows the start of a warmer flow of air over our area. However, due to a few storm systems that will pass along a frontal gradient to our north the weather will become very unsettled at times this week. That means expect rain as we head through the week. Today by far will be the nicest day with temperatures in the 60's. Expect rain at times tomorrow and showers everyday as we head into Friday. In any event each week that goes by this month everyone will start to see more consistency in warmer temperatures. That will eventually bring the shot at severe weather as we head into May. 

Severe weather will be the big concern this week in the nations mid section on Wednesday and Thursday. Without going into two much detail severe weather occurs this time of year in that part of the country due to strong conflicting air masses. You have a warm moist flow from the gulf of Mexico and have shots of cool air that come in on the jet stream from the west. Combine the two and if the atmospheric conditions are right you get severe weather. This week looks to be one of those weeks.

The target period is Wednesday and Thursday.  The GFS model shows thunderstorms developing..

I circled the area of concern. In this area, we have those conflicting air masses and also conflicting wind directions. Check out the difference in winds between 5,000ft and 18,000ft in the atmosphere..

Blue is 5000ft and black is 18000ft. Looking over Oklahoma you can see how those winds are coning from different directions. This wind sheer causes those thunderstorms to spin creating a supercell thunderstorms which can produce tornadoes. 

Moving back up to the grand scale you can see the tough in the jet stream approaching this area Wednesday causing this all to occur..

That blue area is a dip in the jet stream which allows the colder air mass to run into the warm air ahead of it. I could get way more complex but this is simple enough for now. I will have a lot more in the days to come including a video if this severe weather outbreak stays on pace. 

Thursday, April 2, 2015

Thursday Morning Comment

Warmer temps and rain to start the weekend then all signs point to a spring pattern locking in! Check this out..

The image above is basically showing  areas of warm and cold air due to the placement of the  jet stream on Wednesday of next week. Notice how we have a nice ridge of high pressure (yellow) from the south flooding into the east coast. This is the opposite of what we dealt with all winter and it allows warmer air to start to come into the area.  Say goodbye for the most part to high temps in the 40's. At pattern like this is all 50's and 60's! 

As we get later into April, we will have to be on the lookout for severe weather potential (thunderstorms). The posting might be be as frequent as is was during the winter, but there will always be commentary on this blog at least a few times a week. 

I still am going to also do a review of my winter outlook I released back in October which overall did not turn out too bad. The temperature forecast was pretty accurate and the snowfall actually came pretty close. We did not get those two big east coast storms I thought we would get but instead got a lot of moderate events. I will find a way to compare actual snowfall to my snowfall map when I have the time. In any case, here is a quick glimpse of the actual temperature departures from average compared to my forecast..

Actual Departures in C (Dec-Feb)

My Forecast in F

Overall I am satisfied with this performance, but the entire forecast was not perfect. I will go into more detail when I have time to break down all the components of it. I will post the review on a separate tab on the blog

Thanks for checking in.