Sunday, March 15, 2015

Sunday Night Video Discussion: Can it Snow Again this Year?

In tonight's video I give an update on my thoughts behind my target period of the 19th to 24th. This is a little bit more of an advanced discussion so I will summarize it for people not interested in the details below:


  • Cold air returns to the area mid-week as a cold front moves into the area
    • expect highs in the 30's to 40's depending on where you located
  • As this cold air is established the overall atmosphere could be favorable for potential storm development later this week into early next week.
    • This is due to an active southern jet stream and favorable dynamics to  hold cold air in place over the region 
  • The targeted area would be NYC north into New England.
    •  Further south I would significantly reduce the chances at seeing any winter storm
  • JUST BECAUSE THE ATMOSPHERE LOOKS RIPE DOES NOT GUARANTEE A STORM WILL OCCUR!
  • The whole point of this discussion is to show how in my opinion all the ingredients will be in place and it is now up to the atmosphere to see if they come together 
    • I am also challenging claims that it can't snow this time of year 
    • It is absolutely possible with the pattern we will have in place even with a stronger sun for the areas I am targeting
Enjoy the video!


3 comments:

  1. Willy...Do I have a chance of snow here in scotch plains? I'm guessing I'm on the cut off line if we get a storm?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Scotch plains has a shot at snow in next ten days IF a storm does end up developing..not a great chance but its there.

      Delete
  2. The 12Z Monday GFS is the dream scenario for more snow over NJ, from Friday afternoon into Saturday AM. Looks like 6 or 7 inches are possible in the 78/Parkway/80/287 box under this scenario. The southern stream disturbance rounds the corner under a fairly strong trough, gets out over ocean water between Delaware and Virginia, then hits the 40-70 mark pretty strong, swirling mucho moisture into that cold air over us. CMC doesn't think the trough will be as strong and deep, puts the disturbance over us from the land side and quicker (more like most of the storms we've seen this past winter). This scenario would have enough warm air tagging along to keep the snow on the low side, maybe an inch or two. Still early in the race, of course -- will be interesting to watch as the week progresses. Jim G

    ReplyDelete