- Very active sub tropical jet emerges out of the Gulf of Mexico this week.
- As this jet stream sprays moisture into the east a stubborn Canadian high pressure system will develop over the Northeast locking on cold air.
Image below shows this..
It is important to not underestimate high pressure systems. More times than not this winter they have ended up being stronger than modeled. Recent trends over the weekend have pointed to this high pressure system being a real threat.
So whats the bottom line?
Areas from Phili northward can see winter precipitation from this system. I would expect that it ends up being snow/ice to rain say from Phili to NYC but in Southern New England this can be a snowstorm on Saturday. I am basing this on model trends.
For the more advanced end of things, the upper air pattern supports this high pressure being held in place due to confluence over the east. Confluence can be seen by the height lines converging along an axis.
Everyone is going to think I am crazy as they experience a taste of spring this week but remember I warned you.
Moving into next week the pattern gets only more interesting as we have a negative NAO, negative AO, Positive PNA, and Negative EPO develop. All these variables mean cold and stormy end to March..
Enjoy the warm weather! I will have time tonight to go into more detail on all of this.