Monday, March 30, 2015

Monday Morning Weather Discussion

Good morning everyone. We are right at the finish line now in terms of this lingering colder than normal pattern. After this week (which actually will not be too bad) we are completely out of the woods and everyone can welcome spring and warmer temps! We might just have one more small hurdle to climb however.

In terms of temps this week things will be pretty moderate across the region. Most days will be in the 50's and maybe we can even throw a 60 or two in there by the end of the week. The sun is just as strong as it would be in early September and despite any colder than normal air masses aloft, it really helps warm things up. 

The one issue we might have is the possibility of some snow in northern counties at a higher elevation on Tuesday night. This is due to an approaching clipper system that could pack a little bit of a punch

The good news it it appears surface temps will be too warm for most of the forecast region and the only places that have a shot at seeing snow accumulate on the grass would be NNJ above 800ft after the sun goes down. Basically, this is not a huge concern of mine at this time but it still reminds us that winter is swinging as it goes down.

As we get to later in the week another storm system approaches but at this time it looks to be very wet for most areas. I have been following this for a few days now and I can confidently say I do not see this being a snow threat unless you live in Northern New England. Expect rain as we head into the weekend from this system.

In the wake of this storm, I see signs of the floodgates to spring finally opening. Check out the warm flow that should develop as we head into next week..

As typical with the transition in the season, the northern jet stream weakens and retreats north and we have the southern jet starting to dominate the pattern bringing with it a warmer flow of air. 

I will point out that the northern jet will still dip in at times and this is what can cause severe weather as we head into May. Thunderstorms feed off that contrast in temps. 

Thanks for checking in, I will keep my eye on the clipper and that weekend storm system and keep everyone updated as the week goes on.


  1. Saw a layer of flakes on my car this AM in Montclair. Couldn't help but smile! Right now (Monday AM), CMC and GFS see a bit of mixed slop on Tuesday night / Wed AM for us, but NAM puts the rain line up on the NY / NJ border. GEFS ensembles look about evenly split on that issue. CMC and GFS imagine it could be up to 2 inches! (maybe on grassy surfaces). Hey, why not. The gardening chores can wait another few days. Jim G

    1. Yup what snow lover wouldn't take one last shot at a small accumulation. It something to def keep an eye on over next 24 hours. It comes as day comes to a close so sun will weaken which helps.